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Oct 18, 2020
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Scientists have revealed the worst scenario for the spread of coronavirus in Russia


In the worst-case scenario of the spread of coronavirus in Russia, the number of infections will grow to several hundred thousand per day. MIPT employee Stanislav Otstavnov, one of the creators of the forecast based on the mathematical model of the Institute of Health Indicators and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, told Izvestia about this.

"The most pessimistic version of the IHME forecast assumes the value of the number of cases of one million people on the night of December 31 to January 1," said Otstavnov.

The most negative scenario of morbidity will develop if citizens refuse to wear medical masks and cease to observe social distance. The best forecast, subject to all sanitary standards, assumes that by January 1, 2021, the number of infected people per day will be no more than four thousand.

The most pessimistic mortality rates by January 1, 2021 - about four thousand deaths. In this case, the figure is an average, the amount can vary from one to ten thousand. According to the mathematical model of the IHME, now 20-30 thousand Russians are infected with COVID-19 every day. This figure takes into account not only people tested, but also asymptomatic carriers of the virus.

Recall that the Moscow authorities have developed three scenarios for tightening coronavirus restrictions. The most radical of them, if the epidemiological situation in the capital does not improve over the next two weeks, involves repeating the spring restrictions, up to the introduction of strict isolation with access control.

The example of Moscow may be followed by the regions that independently regulate issues with the introduction of measures against the spread of COVID-19.

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