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Apr 26, 2022
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Savings.net: The dollar and the euro will replace the cultivator in the garden

Savings.net: The dollar and the euro will replace the cultivator in the garden

Photo: YAY/TASS

The exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar and the euro is growing surprisingly fast, the Russian currency is quickly recouping the fall of late February and early March. However, the strengthening of the ruble hides serious economic problems. And the question of where to make savings is again more relevant than ever.

On April 25, the euro fell to 76.96 rubles, the lowest level since June 8, 2020. The dollar also sank to 72.93 rubles, and the yuan similarly went down.

“The Russian currency has no other scenario but to continue to grow in the absence of a budget rule and a situation where the supply of foreign currency from Russian exporters significantly exceeds domestic needs,” says the head of the investment advisory department at Alor Broker Alexey Antonov.

It is true, of course, but not entirely. That is, not at all.

On the one hand, according to the so-called “pie index”, the ruble seems to be strong. Well, as we are told… Food in the world is becoming more expensive, but salaries somehow do not grow. True, in the Russian Federation, too, food is not getting cheaper. And our other products are also growing at some absolutely fantastic pace. Moreover, they are in no way tied to this very exchange rate of the ruble and to the volume of imports. Therefore, it is somehow not necessary to say that according to the “pie index” we win.

Let’s recalculate the availability of a kilogram of chicken fillet, a liter of milk, a loaf (0.5 kg) of bread and a kilogram of potatoes in Russia and Germany. The first position costs about 300 rubles, the second – 100 rubles, the third – about 50 rubles, the fourth – about 70 rubles. Accordingly, in Germany it is 7 euros, 0.8 euros, 1.3 euros and 0.9 euros. Translated into our banknotes – 560 rubles, 64 rubles, 104 rubles and 72 rubles.

Even so, it is clear that the Germans are by no means starving. Moreover, we have potatoes at the same price, milk is cheaper in Germany (moreover, this is milk, and in Russia it is often a substitute for palm oil), but meat and bread are much more expensive there. However, given the average salary in the country – in Germany it is 2600 euros (210 thousand rubles at the current exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation) after taxes – everything becomes even more “fun”. That is, the “pie index” we lose miserably to the Germans.

What else do we have? Oil and gas. Re-industrialization does not go budget money is randomly distributed and immediately sent to various, sometimes extremely dubious “saw” projects.

The authority of Russia on the world stage has fallen below the plinth, our consulate in New York is sitting without money. There was no such shame even in the 1920s, when the country that emerged from the Civil War was weak and poor.

Accordingly, tensions are also growing inside the country. Because, first of all, there is no understanding where the Russian Federation is moving. Which future. The authorities say first one thing, then another, and then they do a third.

In theory, now it would be necessary to throw a call – to allow everyone who has money to import equipment into the country. To give an opportunity by hook or by crook to produce machine tools on the world market, organize production and make products that the country needs so much. At least the simplest, not even her. Go to any department store and look for Russian products on the shelves. Really Russian, not Chinese under a domestic brand.

No one throws a cry, the import duties on equipment are not reset. Instead, the Ministry of Economic Development offers the government to help “endowment funds.” This word means a sharashkin’s office for “drank” budget financing by all sorts of near-state “non-profit organizations”, of which there are already hundreds in Russia.

“Despite the situation in the world, Russia’s technological development has not slowed down. In any case, we have not yet seen any slowdown,” the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation broadcasts optimistically. Dmitry Chernyshenko.

It’s hard to argue. When something is not there, it cannot slow down or speed up. It just doesn’t exist. When you multiply zero by any number, you get zero, this is taught at school in mathematics lessons.

“Without taking into account the measures taken by the Russian authorities, the exchange rate of the American currency would have been at the level of ₽180. The current strengthening of the ruble is artificial,” says currency strategist at Wells Fargo Securities Brendan McKenna.

It is difficult to suspect foreigners of love for our country, but in this case there is a completely objective analysis. Dollars (and euros too) have been made unnecessary, there is now an excess of them in the Russian Federation, there is no demand. Most of the common people do not have money, people simply survive, cutting out a penny for an extra kilogram of sugar or buckwheat, which has again shamelessly risen in price.

And they are constantly afraid that at any moment their money will depreciate. Rubles, alas, there is no trust, no. Because there is no real economy behind it. Today, yes, the dollar costs 73 rubles. And tomorrow? There are, for example, 100-200 thousand rubles for a “rainy day”, what to do with them? Where to invest?

There are problems in the Eurozone, a single currency is definitely not an option. The industry there, of course, is strong, it works, but there are problems with energy resources and raw materials. Yes, and with sales too, the rejection of the Russian market plays a role.

“Forever green” seems to be gaining popularity against the backdrop of the euro, but has a 20-25% fall potential against gold by the end of the year.

In general, the situation is also extremely uncertain; to solve its internal problems, the United States can take “unpopular” measures. That is, “throw” all the holders of dollars on our planet and introduce a new currency – “amero”. This option has already been discussed several times and it’s only a matter of timing. That is, it can happen at any moment.

Yuan? The Chinese do not view their currency as a fetish, but solely as a payment instrument for an export-oriented economy. It will be necessary – they will lower the rate in order to make their goods more attractive. In fact, that is exactly what they are doing now.

Gold is illiquid, despite the abolition of VAT, the rates of its purchase and sale in banks are very different, you can lose a lot. In addition, its rate is extremely unstable, despite forecasts of $2,500 per ounce, a local rollback to the level of $1,900 is now observed by autumn. This, most likely, will not last long, but money “for a rainy day” may be needed at any time.

A bank deposit in rubles is not the case. Rates fell to 15% per annum, and this is for the maximum period. Moreover, financiers have become cunning, under many deposit agreements it is impossible to withdraw money ahead of time, in principle, the legislation now allows it. Yes, and with inflation over 20% per annum, you will still lose.

The Russian people were besieged from all sides, it is impossible in principle to create any savings today. Therefore, with the “extra” money it is worth buying a motor cultivator and going to plow the garden – plant potatoes, carrots, cabbage and other beets. It’s still not too late, and the May holidays are ahead, it’s time. Investments will definitely pay off. Many are doing just that – demand for seeds has tripled this year.

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