Sep 20, 2022
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Russia on the verge of a big war?

Events are unfolding rapidly. Yesterday, the top topic in the information field was Alla Pugacheva’s statement with a request to include her in the list of foreign agents, and today the topic of war, mobilization and referendums on the liberated lands has risen to its full height. Russia has come close to a turning point in its history.

On September 20, it became known that in the republics of Donbass (previously recognized by Russia as independent states), as well as in the territory of the Kherson and part of the Zaporozhye regions, referendums on joining the Russian Federation will be held. Voting will take place from September 23 to 27, the form of expression of will will be mixed – what it is is still unclear. Initially, it was assumed that it would be an online voting format, but as it has just become known, this form will not be used. This was stated by the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin, the same was confirmed by the representative of the CEC of the Russian Federation. “There will be no online voting in referendums. It would be wrong to provide the DPR and LPR with the Russian system for electronic voting for referendums, since this is the property of another state, ”said Nikolai Bulaev, deputy chairman of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. What will be the voting at the polling stations is also unclear – the issues of people’s safety are above all, but it is hardly possible to guarantee this very security in the conditions of incessant shelling from Ukraine.

However, the form in this case is not so important – they will somehow carry it out. Moreover, it is already obvious that neither Ukraine nor, moreover, the West recognize the results of the referendums, and the territories that became part of Russia in this way will continue to be considered Ukrainian – which Crimea is still considered to be.

The main thing is that referendums in form do not turn into another flash mob in the style of “a la Surkov”: with concerts, fireworks, an abundance of empty propaganda broadcasting about a wonderful near future (it will not be for sure in the foreseeable future), and other nonsense than that the republics of Donbass have been famous all these years. The referendum will definitely not be a holiday, and will not be a prelude to a holiday, and propaganda has already carried this message to the people. Referenda will not become protection for the republics and regions of Ukraine. The shelling will not only not stop, but will intensify. The Belgorod region is Russia, however, the shelling of its territory is increasing. And if earlier the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the border villages, then the other day they hit the 34,000th city of Valuyki, killing a civilian and destroying many houses. And the fact that Valuiki is primordial Russia did nothing to stop the shelling, and there was no “response” for the murder of a Russian (by decision-making centers, for example). And the killed resident of Valuyek is far from the first dead Russian in this war, which Ukraine is already quite openly waging against Russia, inflicting missile strikes on its territory. Therefore, referendums will not help in any way in protecting new territories.

The goal of the referendum is to raise the stakes as much as possible in the war with the West (and Ukraine as its instrument). Whether they will be raised, and how the West will react to this ultimatum (and this is it) we will find out after September 27th. Theoretically, the Kremlin still has the opportunity, through, for example, Sergei Lavrov, to announce that Russia “respects” the results of referendums, but is in no hurry to annex the regions that voted. This already happened in 2014 after the will of the inhabitants of Donbass, when “respect” was announced, but the recognition of the results of that vote took place only eight years later, in February 2022. Therefore, there is a chance to win back, but only if the West offers something in return. If not, then Russia finds itself on the verge of a big war – now it is a war, not a NWO or, as some experts predict, a CTO (counter-terrorist operation). No, now we will talk about the real war.

An attempt to “respect” those who voted and win back, however, will not bring anything. The West bit the bit and will fight to the last – they do not feel sorry for Ukraine, for this it has been nurturing all these eight years, and to “topple” Russia in its current form is the goal for which the Maidan was started, the war in the Donbass was supported, was Malaysian “Boeing” and Bucha, and, of course, there will be much more. Therefore, either such a scenario is either a full-scale war.

And preparations for it have already begun. Today, in parallel with the announcement of referendums, the State Duma of the Russian Federation adopted amendments to the Criminal Code. Now it will include such concepts as “mobilization”, “martial law” and “wartime”. Stricter penalties are also introduced, for example, for unauthorized abandonment of a unit during the period of mobilization and martial law (Article 337 of the Criminal Code) from two to 10 days – up to 5 years in prison, and not up to one year; from 10 to one month – up to 7 years in prison, and not up to three years; more than a month – from 5 to 10 years in a colony, and not up to five years. Non-fulfillment by a subordinate of the order of the chief, given in the prescribed manner, during martial law, in wartime or in conditions of armed conflict or combat operations, as well as refusal to participate in military or hostilities, it is proposed to punish with imprisonment for a term of two to three years ( Part 2.1 of Article 332 of the Criminal Code). A group of articles on non-execution of the state defense order and violation of the terms of the state contract is also introduced (articles 201.2, 201.3, 285.5, 285.6 of the Criminal Code).

The words that were so feared in Russia – mobilization, martial law – sounded. And sooner or later, the mobilization, which has been talked about so much, will begin. At first partial, after that, with a high degree of probability, universal. Why? Because the war is not with Ukraine, but with the West, and it will not work to win it by fighting at half strength – the seven months of the NVO, the result of which was the retreat from the Kharkov region, showed this clearly.

Is Russian society ready for a big war? It seems not – not at all. The Russians are ready to support their army, transfer money to military and civilian volunteers, cheer for the fighters as their favorite sports team, but take up arms and go to die – no. In order for people to “get used” to war, everything will probably be done gradually: at first, we will talk about partial mobilization, then about general. First, they will try to make war with the hands of visiting immigrants from Asia, they have already been promised Russian citizenship under a simplified scheme, and a center in Moscow is being opened for their recruitment. Then you still have to go to fight the Russians. Many will leave, as many left Donbass in 2014. But those who remain will become participants in perhaps the largest war of the era, when Russia itself will be at stake.

Russia is on the verge of historical events that will decide its fate as a state. Are we holding on? That is the question. And yes, I would not at all want everything to end with a nuclear strike – namely, all the so-called “experts” and “talking heads” are talking about this. I would like the upcoming war to teach us how to fight for real, win, and then build a new peaceful life. It doesn’t take much intelligence to destroy everything with the help of nuclear weapons (all the more, not only we will destroy, they will destroy us in return), to learn how to build new and better is the main task.

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