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Nov 14, 2022
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Russia is again sitting on the oil and gas needle – why is this a very alarming symptom

Russia again sits on the oil and gas needle - why is this a very alarming symptom

Photo: Egor Aleev / TASS

Oil and gas plus other raw materials – it is the proceeds from the sale of these resources that support the state budget of Russia, all other sources of income show a strong drop. The manufacturing industry is in a deep crisis, trade too – the people have no money. In fact, the entire economy of the Russian Federation is collapsing, and only quick and radical reforms associated with a complete change of priorities, primarily socio-political ones, can stop this process.

According to data for October 2022, non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget fell to 1.12 trillion rubles, that is, by 20.1%. True, in annual terms, but still bad. In July this year, however, it was even worse, when revenues not related to energy trade sank by as much as 29%. But there is nothing to rejoice. There are other figures, even more terrible. “The economic downturn, which amounted to only 0.4% in the first half of the year, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, will increase by the end of the year to 2.9%. That is, the decline in the second half of the year, as the liberal bloc of the government believes, will reach 5.4%.

The industrial growth of 0.9% in January-August will be replaced, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, by an annual decline of 1.8%, that is, in the last 4 months of the year, a reduction in industrial production by 7.2% is expected.

But the retail trade turnover, that is, the real consumption of citizens, is declining much more: by 4.9% in January-August and by 6.1% in 2022. Thus, in September-December, a reduction in the consumption of the Russian population by another 8.5% is predicted,” the deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy analyzes the current situation. Mikhail Delyagin.

And here it is worth noting that the “basic” figures are from Rosstat, and there is no faith in them. But you can estimate them on your own, plus make a forecast within the described dynamics, as well as the situation with state budget revenues.

These very receipts just best of all characterize what is happening in the country. Thus, revenues from income tax fell by 26.3%. Even comments are unnecessary here. The collection of “internal” VAT fell by 39% – everything is also clear.

Non-tax indicators also drive one into a cold sweat. Mechanical engineering and other non-primary industries show a 20-45% subsidence, metal consumption in the country has already fallen by 21%, and this is from the beginning of the year until September. By the New Year it will be even worse. The real estate market generally stood up, the demand for the most inexpensive new buildings in just a month decreased by more than 40%. Not in annual terms, but in absolute terms!

According to research company Frank RG, the unsecured consumer lending market grew again in October, with 7.8% more loans issued than in September. True, the average amount fell by 11.2% to 228 thousand rubles, as a result, banks issued 4.3% less money. But the growth of the debt load of the population, which has long been recognized as critical, is evident.

And we are talking, so, by the way, not about some poor Burkina Faso with lazy natives, but about the richest country in the world. We have all. And energy carriers, and metals, and food, and any kind of raw materials. There is quite a competent and very hardworking population that wants to work. And for themselves, and for their country, for the benefit of their future and the future of their children. Even the equipment still remains, albeit outdated, but quite efficient. Soviet means excellent! However, there is modern, but not enough. Although this is enough to get started.

However, in addition to this, we also have an insatiable pack of officials and no less greedy huckster oligarchs. Both those and others see in Russia nothing more than a feeding trough, they are temporary workers and traitors – enemies of the people. Eight and a half months have passed since the beginning of the NWO, and there is no progress in the country. Basically.

No one remembers about reindustrialization and import substitution. Import substitution, as it were, was implemented – European imports were replaced with Chinese and other miscellaneous ones. Plus, the same European and American goods are imported at a double or triple price, and sometimes even more expensive. There is no support for domestic manufacturers, it has ceased even in words.

But this import does not save, and, by the way, it also falls. Revenues from VAT on imported goods fell by 19.7%, customs fees (duties) – by 31.5%. Despite the incantations that Western sanctions do not work, this is by no means the case. They work, how! And each of us feels this every day in everyday life.

Remaining without maintenance — spare parts are not being taken! – Imported equipment has already begun to fail. On November 3, the Ministry of Economic Development was left without electricity, and at the time of the meeting with Vladimir Putin. Most of the vaunted Moscow City complex was de-energized, elevators, ventilation and everything else did not work. Miraculously, no one died.

“Analysis of the causes already today indicates that the owner of the power grid equipment, Energia and Technologies LLC, is not engaged in operational equipment maintenance, routine maintenance, and the staff lacks an understanding of the ATS operation algorithm. The power supply scheme for the period of the accident did not correspond to the first category of reliability, there is no single center of responsibility, ”said the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation following the results of the debriefing. Nikolay Shulginov.

I mean, it’s kind of complete bullshit. But is it? In general, power engineers are serious people, because jokes are bad with electricity. Nothing but problems with spare parts and components, it is difficult to think of other options. The same is happening in everyday life. For example, “smart” electricity meters, which are now installed in great numbers by sales companies, cannot be replaced for a long time if they fail. Not for anything. There are no Russians in principle, and imports are blocked.

Subject to the provision of working capital, even without any investment in fixed capital, Russian industrialists are ready to cover more than 30% of critical imports. Quickly, right off the bat – the enterprises still have the capacity, not everything has been ruined. But no one gives money. And there is no type of state. At the same time, a record outflow of funds is predicted from the country, from $500 billion to $1 trillion, or even more.

Absurd? No, targeted policy. And it, as can be seen from the indicators of the Ministry of Finance on state budget revenues and the data of the Ministry of Economic Development on industrial production, is working properly. The destruction of Russia is underway, it is accelerating every month.

So far, the situation is quite reversible, although now it is worse than in the spring. After all, the real minus in the industry has nothing to do with the data of Rosstat, it is 15%, or even more. There has not been such a drop in industrial production since 1998, because at that time our economy was much more powerful than today. Those tens of thousands of factories that were destroyed over the past quarter of a century were still working. And they regularly issued products to the domestic market, people bought it and did not really need to import it. That is, they needed, of course, but there were also domestic alternatives. Faster, but cheaper. Those are no longer there.

Actually, it is worth saying that the moment of truth has come. Either we or they. A banal question of survival – both for us and our children. Tomorrow may be too late.

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