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Sep 6, 2022
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Russia has two ways to break the “Kherson plans” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Kyiv, despite the enormous losses, continues to pull the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the Kherson region. And although the intensity of the shelling of the region has somewhat decreased, experts warn that Zelensky has not abandoned his military plans in this direction. What makes the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to continue fighting and how could the allied forces of Russia, the DPR and the LPR prevent this?

Since the evening of September 4, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been actively gathering reserves in the Posad-Pokrovsky area in the Kherson region. This became known to the publication “Russian Spring”. This allowed them to attack the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the triangle of Ternovye Pody – Zeleny Gay – Blagodatnoe, tanks and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) were the first to enter the battle, the material says. Artillery was practically not used, Lenta.ru notes.

In response, Russian units met the enemy with fire, the soldiers of the Airborne Forces were transferred from neighboring sectors of the front and helped repel the blow. The publication clarifies that the fighting went on for several hours. Three tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, five armored vehicles were named among the losses of the Ukrainian army, and vehicles were also hit. Later these numbers increased.

Thus, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not abandon attempts to implement a “counterattack” in the Kherson direction, although the “battle of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for Kherson” should be renamed into a “senseless massacre” for a long time. As military blogger Mikhail Onufrienko noted, “during the week of hostilities in the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost at least two mechanized brigades killed and wounded, the total loss of armored vehicles exceeds 300 units.”

“Such volumes cannot be replenished with supplies from the West either within a month or even before the end of the year. Ukraine’s partners simply do not have equipment that could be transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in such quantity,” Onufrienko added.

At the same time, since the evening of August 28, the armed forces of Ukraine have been regularly shelling several settlements in the Kherson region. Schools, social infrastructure were destroyed, houses were damaged. Kyiv initially planned a broader counteroffensive, but has scaled back in recent weeks in the Kherson region and north of Kherson region, U.S. and Ukrainian sources say.

Then, on August 30, the official representative of the Ministry of Defense, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov, reported that as a result of the defeat of the Ukrainian offensive in Nikolaev-Kryvyi Rih and other directions, the enemy lost 48 tanks, 46 infantry fighting vehicles, 37 other armored combat vehicles, eight pickup trucks with heavy machine guns per day and over 1200 military personnel.

On Monday, the Russian Aerospace Forces, rocket troops and artillery launched precision strikes on units and reserves of Ukrainian troops. Then the enemy lost 11 tanks, 7 infantry fighting vehicles and 8 other armored vehicles, 9 pickup trucks with heavy machine guns and more than 220 military personnel.

Further, on Tuesday, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction increased even more. According to Konashenkov, over the past day, the enemy lost 12 tanks, 11 infantry fighting vehicles and eight other armored vehicles, six pickup trucks with heavy machine guns and more than 210 servicemen. Also, one Su-25 was shot down near the village of Snigirevka and two Ukrainian Su-25s near Mirnoye in the Mykolaiv region.

“As long as they have reserves, they will try with all their might to break through at least somewhere. We can only fight back, interfere with them and strike in other places. As soon as there is a breakthrough somewhere else, for example, in the Donbass, they will be forced to curtail the operation,” says military analyst and blogger Yuri Podolyaka.

“We have already begun to attack again the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass. The next wave of assault is in the areas of Soledar, Bakhmut. Obviously, there will be pressure near Avdiivka as well. If the enemy starts having problems in one of the directions, if there is a threat of a breakthrough there, then, of course, they will maneuver reserves, and this will all end,” Podolyaka believes.

At the same time, military commissar Roman Saponkov believes that “a decrease in the intensity of fighting is recorded today in the Kherson direction.” “That glow, which was the day before yesterday and starting from August 28, is gone. Of course, both sides suffered losses. But due to the logic of modern warfare, with so much artillery from our side, it is no longer possible for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to maintain intense battles for so long,” Saponkov continued.

“Now a regrouping of both our forces and enemy forces is expected. Whether there will be an intensification of fighting in this direction is still difficult to say, since both sides are trying to keep their plans secret. Nevertheless, the enemy still continues sorties near Aleksandrovka and Posad-Pokrovsky, ”says the interlocutor.

“We see that the success of attacks has decreased, although they were not very successful before. Of the five directions, the enemy managed to advance only in two. The last attacks with the help of the infantry were ineffective. This is largely due to the fact that our units have regrouped, received reinforcements and attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine are met by the entire range of weapons available,” he said.

“Unfortunately, our troops retreated near Vysokopolye. It was caused by the danger of the environment. The loss of the village is more likely to damage the image, since the village did not represent a strategic value. From March to August, the village was in the gray zone and passed from hand to hand more than once,” the military commander said.

“On the other hand, now any settlement that has brick and concrete buildings is of particular value, since there are only fields and plantings around us. Therefore, the loss of a village where no one lives is, of course, unpleasant, but not critically significant,” he believes. “But in the Sukhoi Stavka area, the enemy has fiercely attacked our positions in recent days, trying to expand the bridgehead. But the desire of the enemy did not come true. The losses incurred by the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be judged by the burned-out armored vehicles. After the final liquidation of the bridgehead, we will receive more accurate data,” Saponkov continued.

“As for the road bridges in Nova Kakhovka and Kherson, they are not destroyed, but damaged so much that even the movement of cars on them is now impossible. In addition, the enemy is regularly shelling the bridges,” the military commander said.

“In general, the situation in the region is relatively calm. It was quiet yesterday and today. At night, there was also a sharp decline in the activity of enemy artillery, although on September 4, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were constantly shelling, literally every hour or two the air defense system was working. But the intensity of the shelling and the damage done cannot be compared with the shelling of Donetsk,” he said.

“The lull of recent days, I think, is due to logistical difficulties and the regrouping of troops after active fighting. Besides, I’m sure it’s too early to relax. There will be attacks at the front, there will be shelling,” the interlocutor stressed.

At the same time, according to experts, Russia has two ways to stop Ukrainian attempts to advance in the Kherson direction. Based on the fact that “NATO” tactics involve the movement of units in small mobile groups (which excludes “frontal” attacks), they still remain vulnerable in terms of organizing communications, delivering fuel and ammunition.

In this regard, the Russian Armed Forces can continue to create “fire bags” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, grinding enemy units when they try to “bite” into the defense, and thereby deplete the reserves of the Ukrainian command, pairing such activities with strikes against logistics centers in the Krivoy Rog and Dnepropetrovsk directions.

The second option is to sharply aggravate the situation and go on the offensive in another sector of the front, which will require the Ukrainian Armed Forces to transfer the available reserves from the Kherson direction to any other.

However, for the sake of media success, Vladimir Zelensky may sacrifice several settlements in the DPR or the Zaporozhye region, wanting to somehow gain a foothold in the Kherson region.

At the same time, military expert Alexei Leonkov believes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to draw up reserves to the Kherson region, the total number of which may reach 30 thousand people. “Earlier, Ukrainians have repeatedly announced the preparation of the so-called “reserve army”. Now we see it in the direction of Kherson,” he added.

“Initially it was assumed that these people would be used in Western Ukraine in the event of our advance from the north, but then they were transferred to the south. Now this army is suffering colossal losses, forcing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attract new volunteers, reservists and fighters of the defense. The lion’s share of the tanks that Ukraine received from Poland were also destroyed there,” the interlocutor noted.

“The persistence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is easily explained – the whole world is talking about the “Kherson plans” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And now Ukraine needs to show at least some result to the West. Even failure will be viewed positively. In this case, Zelensky will again say that the fighters fought, but they could do it better with large supplies of weapons. However, in reality, they will not succeed, because highly qualified people are fighting on our side, well-armed and knowing how to most effectively complete this or that task,” Leonkov summed up.

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