Oct 12, 2021
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Russia can capture Riga and Tallinn, but lose Kaliningrad

Russia can capture Riga and Tallinn, but lose Kaliningrad

Photo: Vitaly Nevar / TASS

Russia can easily seize the Baltic countries, but does not do this solely for fear of losing Kaliningrad if the western allies of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia enter the war with it. This unexpected statement was made by the Croatian edition of Binkov’s Battlegrounds.

As noted in the material, the military conflict will not end with the seizure of the Baltic states by Russia. It will be forced to join the EU forces, as well as Ukraine, which is unlikely to stay on the sidelines when it comes to Russia.

Taking into account the superiority of the EU Air Force in numbers and technical characteristics, some of the occupied territories of the Baltic states will be able to be recaptured from the Russian Federation, Croatian experts are sure. In addition, in their opinion, while Russia is conducting military operations with the EU, Poland can seize the moment to invade the Kaliningrad region and seize it. This state of affairs – along with the possibility of entering a military conflict on the side of the Baltic countries of the United States and Great Britain – is supposedly a deterrent for Russian strategists from the Ministry of Defense. Since, according to the authors, they are well aware that it makes no sense to seize new territories at the risk of losing theirs.

An old song about the main thing – in the West they like to discuss the topic of the seizure of the Baltic states. To ask the question “does Russia need this?” nobody tries there?

– Of course not, – I’m sure Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Gevorg Mirzayan

– For if you think about it, it will immediately be clear that there is no need. That in Russia they are not suicides, they do not want the Third World War. We understand that all these publications are needed not to predict real hostilities, but exclusively for domestic political consumption in the Baltics and NATO. Demonstration of the “aggressiveness of Russia”, under which they demand new money to strengthen the eastern flank of the Alliance.

“SP”: – The authors are dragging Ukraine into something … And who will actually fight with Russia? US and EU?

– Not the EU. NATO. The countries of Europe are members of NATO and will act through this organization. Yes, Europe has a Rapid Reaction Force, but NATO has an important trump card – the United States. This means that Europe will operate under the American umbrella. As for Ukraine, if America joins the war, it may try to snatch a piece for itself – like Italy from France during the Franco-Prussian War.

“SP”: – Do you think the United States will intervene despite the threat of a nuclear war?

– And where to go? Of course they will. If they stay on the sidelines, everyone will see that America is incapable of guaranteeing the security of its allies. Security is primarily from China. Therefore, willy-nilly, you will have to intervene – and hope that the war will not be nuclear.

“SP”: – The authors argue that in the event of war, Russia has a risk of losing Kaliningrad, and only this is holding it back …

– This is complete nonsense. If we capture the Baltic states, then we get a territorial exit to Kaliningrad. The offensive columns of the US-European forces will be destroyed by nuclear warheads. But the delirium is not even that, but that such a war will begin.

“SP”: – Is there a threat that a local conflict on the border or a provocation will develop into something major?

– No, I think. In case of provocation of a separate country, and Moscow refuses to respond to this with a full-scale war, the issue will be concealed at a special summit of NATO member states. And the country that organized the provocation will get a hat.

– In the West, on the topic of “Russian aggression”, many are simply trying to make money, or at least gain fame, to provide themselves with the opportunity to pursue a career in the field of military analytics and journalism, – agrees military political scientist, associate professor of the Department of Political Science and Sociology of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Alexander Perendzhiev

– For research on the topic: “How long and how will Russia conquer this or that country” grants are allocated as part of the anti-Russian information and propaganda campaign, which, in turn, is conducted in order to form and strengthen negative public opinion in Europe and other countries collective West.

“SP”: – If hypothetically – from a purely military point of view – how much time can Russia take to capture the Baltic states? And what about the statements that the EU and Ukraine will fight against us in this case?

– I don’t think that one should ask such a question at all, even hypothetically. Hypothetically, we can only consider the “Crimean scenario” of the transition of one of the Baltic countries, or all of them, to Russia. And I assure all readers of Svobodnaya Pressa: it is this scenario that causes the greatest concern among the representatives of the leadership of the Baltic republics. And most of all – from the official Tallinn. Why? I suppose it is not worth answering, at least not yet, to this question.

As for the second part of the question, Croatian experts make very strange conclusions. After all, the Baltic states are members of NATO, the military-political bloc. The European Union is not a military alliance, but an association, primarily in the economic sphere, as well as for solving other social problems of its members. There is no body in the EU governing system that can make decisions exclusively in the military / defense sphere.

One gets the impression that Croatian experts are just hinting at this fact, in order to quickly form a management system in the EU to address the issues of forming a unified European army.

For official Kiev, participation in hostilities in the Baltic States is a very costly event. I am talking not only about mobilization issues, but, above all, about the costs of moving troops: first, the formation of a “Baltic” grouping on the territory of Western Ukraine, then a march through the territory of Poland, and only then entry into the Baltic States. That is, the way of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the Polish-Lithuanian border “will cost a pretty penny” Nezalezhnaya in the form of costs for fuel, food supplies, deployment of troops and … discipline in the ranks of these units. In general, there is more fantastic than hypothetical here.

“SP”: – Croatian analysts also believe that while Russia will conduct military operations with the EU, Poland, using the moment, can seize it.

– The defense system of the Kaliningrad region is based on interaction with the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. It is also provided with support from the ships of the Baltic Fleet, the delivery of missile and air-bomb strikes against the enemy from the main territory of Russia. Therefore, the conclusions of Croatian experts are a fairy tale for all Europeans, but in order to make money for themselves.

These conclusions have nothing to do with reality for this theater of military operations. First of all, because we proceed from the principle of defense sufficiency. That is, there cannot be such a goal for us as the capture of the Baltic states. But there is a main and priority goal in this theater of operations – the effective defense of the Kaliningrad region. And the prevention is not just aggression against the Russian half-eclave, but even any such attempt or provocation.

– This is a very convenient topic to frighten the European man in the street with the Russian threat, – I am convinced Associate Professor of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy of the Russian State University for the Humanities Vadim Trukhachev

– And to knock out under the appropriate propaganda money to increase military spending and the growth of military contingents in the Baltic countries.

“SP”: – Usually the Balts or Poles themselves are engaged in such theoretical exercises. Where are the Croats going? Where is the Baltics and where is Croatia?

– Croats are a people who are very suspicious of Russia. For many of them, our country is the patroness of Serbia, their worst enemy. Croatian citizens are more likely than any foreigner to fight against the republics of Donbass. The country is extremely pro-American. You can call it “Balkan Poland”. And the Croatian military could face Russian volunteers during the wars in the former Yugoslavia. So reading this from Croats is not surprising at all.

“SP”: – The authors believe that Ukraine will enter the war …

– There is a fighting brotherhood between Ukrainian and Croatian nationalists. There is a brotherhood of fans of Dynamo Kiev and Zagreb. If we trace deeper, during the Second World War, we will find a lot in common between Bandera and Croatian Ustasha … Therefore, they will curtsey towards Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine has a clear reason to get involved in such a war.

“SP”: – What about the EU and the US?

– The European Union is not a military structure. Individual EU countries will take the rap here, but not the Union as a whole. They will try to extinguish the conflict, but on the condition of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Baltic countries. The USA, Britain, Poland, Croatia and Albania will fight there. Two of these NATO countries are members of the EU.

“SP”: – Is there, in your opinion, in the event of such a conflict, the risk of losing Kaliningrad?

– If we assume that there will be a war, the Poles will certainly invade both the Kaliningrad region and Belarus. There is certainly a risk. But having lost Kaliningrad, Russia can acquire Riga and Tallinn. And some cities on the Black Sea or near it.

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