The shooting on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border has died down. Since Sunday morning, the roar of cannonade is not heard there. How long? Since the 16th, when shooting began on several sections of the border near the Batken region at once, truces have been concluded several times. But then the clashes began with renewed vigor …
The situation was especially violent on the 17th, when settlements were under attack not only in Batken, but also in Osh region. 46 people were killed, 146 were injured, evacuees from dozens of villages began to be taken to temporary accommodation camps. In total, about 137 thousand people left the conflict zone.
The situation in the Batken region bordering Tajikistan has escalated more than once. The disputed territories and the still undelimited borders of the two countries periodically give rise to border conflicts. But never before have these exacerbations been of such a massive nature, more reminiscent of an invasion by Tajikistan. I must say that the President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov found understanding with the Uzbek side, and there the border disputes are practically resolved. But with Tajikistan, this process now and then slips into clashes. This exacerbation is also distinguished by the fact that it happened in the midst of the SCO summit. Who can benefit from the destabilization of Central Asia, the Kyrgyz political scientist Mars Sariev told MK.
– The leader of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, could not independently launch such a large-scale offensive – using rocket fire systems, heavy artillery – and along the entire border line. The truce was signed, but yesterday the shelling continued. I think it’s a big game. And all this is due to the fact that the SCO summit was held. There is one more factor… Three months ago I said that the signing of the Agreement on the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway would further cause large “circles” that would destabilize the region. Because this road greatly changes the geopolitical situation. This entire region is actually going under China. Accordingly, this causes tension in the West. China perceives Central Asia and Russia as an internal rear. And the laying of land arteries, oil and gas pipelines allows the Celestial Empire to secure itself in the event of a “hot phase” of a collision with the United States. And the fact that such an option is possible is already clear. America needs to prevent China from becoming the dominant superpower. Therefore, the creation of such corridors, and even more so the strengthening of the SCO, does not suit the West.
– You can recall the beginning of the First World War, when the situation developed according to a similar scenario. At that time, Kaiser Germany wanted to build a Berlin-Baghdad railway line in order to supply oil products directly to Germany. This did not please the “queen of the seas” of Great Britain, which had a monopoly on sea transportation of energy carriers. Therefore, the assassination of the Archduke of Austria in Sarajevo was provoked, with the subsequent escalation of the situation into a world war. Germany lost this war. And now the creation of a new conceptual center in the East does not suit the West.
– But why did Emomali Rahmon go for this aggravation? Is it profitable for him to be an instrument in the hands of the West?
I think he’s in a stalemate. American exercises were recently held in Tajikistan. During them, the United States allocated $50 million to Rahmon, armored cars, and so on. I think Rahmon is now facing a dilemma: if he does not warm up the situation with Kyrgyzstan on the eve of the SCO summit, then the Taliban invasion is inevitable…
– Does the US have influence on the Taliban now?
– Of course. Through Qatar and Pakistan they continue to be influenced. And Rahmon is rushing about. If you have noticed, the aggravation of conflicts occurs just before the SCO summits. In addition, the situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan escalated at the same time, where this “one train – one way” route also passes. The task of the West is to destabilize the situation in Central Asia and not only cut off this new “Silk Road”, but also drop the reputation of the SCO, which cannot cope with conflicts. And at the same time unleash a “second front” against Russia. Because when two members of the CSTO are fighting each other, and the organization cannot provide effective support to another of its members – Armenia, then in fact its role is reduced to zero. These are all systematic and competent actions of the West.