China’s expanding influence will be a challenge for future generations of Russian leadership, says a spokesman for the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) Christopher Borth… He stated this, speaking at the Atlantic Council.
“All the problems between China and Russia at this stage can be solved, and the leaders (of the two countries) understand each other and can solve the problem of possible competition, but many indicate that this will be a problem for the next generations of Russian leaders,” RIA Novosti quotes him …
He also noted that Moscow is closely and with apprehension watching Beijing’s growing influence in all regions, including those where “Russia has traditionally played a role.”
“They know that China’s role is growing and that China can bring in what Russia cannot provide — money and infrastructure,” Bort said when asked how Moscow views China’s growing influence in the Mediterranean.
Recall that during the presidency Donald Trump there was a feeling that he was betting on separating Moscow from Beijing and pulling it into an anti-Chinese alliance, trying to improve relations with it. However, the policy of his successor Joe Biden similar to the fact that Washington decided to fight on two fronts at once, betting on a change of power in both countries.
Is this why Bort speaks of “future generations of the Russian leadership”?
– The speech of this representative of the National Intelligence Council is understandable: outwardly it looks as if he very much expects that his speech will be heard both in Moscow and in Beijing. That they will begin to look at each other with some wariness, – considers Doctor of Political Science, Professor of Moscow State University Andrey Manoilo…
– And where there is more caution, there is less trust, interaction becomes less close and less active.
But it seems to me that this is something else. It was not by chance that the representative of this council drew attention to the fact that the expansion of China would pose a problem specifically for the future generation of Russian leaders. This is such a directive to those whom the United States of America, the collective West, plans to promote to the place of the current leader of the Russian Federation by any means – be it through the reorganization of the Russian elites or through a coup d’etat, repeating the “Belarusian scenario”, or organizing mass protests.
This is precisely the directive – so that the candidate or candidates who are now actively being trained hear this, write it down and perceive it as an order, as an imperative. This is how, indirectly, through such speeches, the United States makes it clear to people who will be used tomorrow as Guaido in Venezuela, what actions they expect from them tomorrow.
– Moscow and Beijing are independent enough to quarrel without any outside help, – I’m sure Stanislav Byshok, Ph.D. in Political Science, Executive Director of the International Monitoring Organization CIS-EMO…
– It should be remembered that during the Cold War era, real direct hostilities took place not between capitalist America and the communist USSR, but between the latter and communist China in March 1969.
The clashes took place on Damansky Island, on both sides, according to various sources, about a hundred servicemen were killed.
As for today, Moscow and Beijing support each other when it comes to battles in the information and diplomatic field and when both countries confront the collective West. Obviously, if the perceived external danger goes away, some contradictions may emerge. These contradictions, by the way, do not necessarily have to bear some kind of global “geopolitical” character.
Both Russia and China are ambitious nations, striving at the same time to respect and influence on a global scale, to a significant degree of self-sufficiency. There is no formal alliance between Moscow and Beijing, and it is hardly possible precisely because of the presence of ambitions, but also of different weight. Both countries are ready to participate only in such alliances where they are either in the first roles, or at least on an equal footing with other participants. Economically, Russia cannot compete with China. This is well understood in both capitals, and at the same time in the West.
It is said that China’s economic strength can be balanced by Russia’s resources and military strength. This is self-deception, there is no such equation.
“SP”: – Why can the next generations of Russian leaders have problems?
– The next generations of Russian leaders, obviously, will live in an era of new detente, that is, the absence of an imaginary war with the collective West. This means that they will pay attention to their increasingly ambitious eastern neighbor.
“SP”: – And what problems in relations between Russia and China are now, and what may arise?
– It would be fair to say that the asymmetry of relations between the two countries lies, among other things, in the fact that China, in fact, has no problems in relations with Russia – and it is difficult to understand where they might arise in the future.
The problem for Russia is that in any negotiations with China, especially concerning the energy sector, it is difficult for it to raise the stakes, given the increasingly complicated relations in the western direction. In other words, the crisis in relations with the global West does not push Moscow into the arms of Beijing, as some fear, but simply makes the latter understand that Russia will agree to more or less any conditions that will be put forward on the deals. Moscow has no option “if they don’t take it, we will turn to the West”.
“SP”: – Speaking about Russia and China, we must not overlook the role of the United States itself, which still remains the leading world power. How will they behave? Will they enter into tactical alliances with someone or try to resist both competitors?
– In the 1970s. American diplomacy Nixon-KissingerBy playing on the mutual hostility between Moscow and Beijing, it was able to change the dynamics of the Cold War, ensuring the opening of China to the West. Today Russia is perceived as a much less dangerous adversary than the USSR, and there is no talk of preparing, so to speak, the opening of Russia to the West. More precisely, President Trump proposed something similar, but without much enthusiasm.