Sep 14, 2021
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Putin is “closing”, what’s next?

Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin

Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin (Photo: Mikhail Metzel / TASS)

During a recent conversation with members of the Russian Paralympic team, the President Vladimir Putin noted that in his environment, many are sick with coronavirus.

“Unfortunately, we also have now… Doctors are studying… even in my environment, problems arise with this covid. We need to figure out what is really going on there. I think I myself will soon have to quarantine. A lot of people are ill around, ”he said in particular.

His words provoked the emergence of rumors that almost immediately after the elections to the State Duma, all of Russia could be closed for another coronavirus quarantine.

Kremlin official, Dmitry Peskov, hastened to declare that the President, speaking of the likelihood of an early quarantine, expressed himself figuratively.

However, this only added fuel to the fire of idle speculation.

So, many users of social networks, commenting on this situation, began to remember how surprisingly, in particular, the proposal coincided Valentina Tereshkova on the “zeroing” of presidential terms in the new edition of our Constitution and the introduction of a self-isolation regime in the capital.

“Then the quarantine was introduced so that people would not take to the streets with protest actions, and now they will do the same so that citizens would not be outraged by the results of the elections,” many of them believe.

“Is there at least some rational grain in such assumptions? – “SP” asked the experts. “Will not Russia be quarantined in order to neutralize the possible negative reaction of citizens?”

– The situation with the incidence of coronavirus in our country is quite serious, judging by the published data on the excess mortality of the population of Russia in 2020, – he said in an interview with the publication member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Sergei Natsievsky… – Currently, according to official statistics, about 800 people die every day for reasons related to the coronavirus. I think that we will not get away from the next wave of the rise in the disease, especially if we take into account the still not very impressive rate of vaccination of citizens.

As for the elections, I personally assume that the government will use all available forces and means in order to ensure the desired result of the vote. This is quite obvious at least from the history of the organization of video surveillance at polling stations.

Everything that happens suggests that this time we will face serious attempts to manipulate the results of the popular will.

However, by and large, if those who are not satisfied with the election results, and think about organizing some kind of peaceful protest actions in this regard, they can only choose the arena for their actions in some large agglomerations like Moscow or St. Petersburg. In general, I do not expect any mass unrest after the publication of the election results.

– The thing is that at the beginning of this year, rather tough repressive measures were taken, as a result of which all potential activists of this kind of events were, figuratively speaking, suppressed, – explained the low probability of any protest actions politician, public figure, member of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Vyacheslav Tetyokin… – As for the rest of the people, I think that they have practically no more confidence in the elections as such, I think, for at least a decade and a half, the majority of Russians perceive this procedure as one big fiction.

It used to be that citizens could massively indignant in the event of any manipulation of their votes. Today, many of them, I think, perceive all this as some kind of inevitable disaster, so that, figuratively speaking, no one will climb any barricades.

So I think that in fact, talking about first-person quarantine has “legs growing” from a slightly different place.

“SP”: – From what?

– For a long time and stubbornly on the sidelines of the authorities, rumors have been circulating that Vladimir Vladimirovich is actually very unwell. He, of course, invigorates and shows that everything is in order for him – he travels around the country, plays hockey, scoring 10 goals, “knocking over” the Olympic champions. But in fact, there, apparently, not everything is in order, as it seems, smoke without fire, as you know, does not exist.

I personally assume that all these references to quarantines are needed not in order to put the whole country in another quarantine, leveling out possible popular discontent, but in order to cover up some serious medical operation for the head of state, which will require him to be excluded from the public politics for a couple of weeks.

“SP”: – But why such complicated maneuvers?

– The health of the head of state has always been a significant factor in the policy of any country, especially those where the centralization of power is high. In light of the fact that our country has been in the “manual control” mode for quite a long time, the president’s health is a very significant factor in our policy. And if these governing hands suddenly find themselves outside the reach of the public, then various speculations and unrest will inevitably arise, as a result, the already shattered state machine will shatter even more.

That is why, it seems to me, public opinion began to gradually prepare for the fact that after a while Putin will disappear from public space. At the same time, we will probably be told that he, they say, “works with documents”, that he has, they say, “a strong handshake.” That is, the scenario will be approximately the same as we have already seen relatively recently.

“SP”: – But if the situation really develops in a similar vein, will the “shutdown” of the head of state from the public field at the responsible “post-election” moment lead to the fact that the turbulence of our vertical of power will grow to unimaginable values?

– The system of power in Russia is built, of course, quite rigidly, but the personal factor dominates it too much. In the USSR, everyone was drawn together by party discipline, which made it possible to ensure truly collegiality and continuity in governing the country. In this case, when everyone is accustomed to the fact that “at the top” there is someone who “solves issues” for everyone, his lack of strength and stability will definitely not add to the state.

“SP”: – In this case, does the story with the dismissal of Nikita Sergeevich Khrushchev from the post of First Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee and his withdrawal from the Presidium of the Central Committee “for health reasons” risk repeating itself? After all, this happened when he was also “turned off” from the public space, while resting in Pitsunda.

– The fact is that such a Politburo, which existed in those days, has no analogues in today’s Russia. Then there were very strong people in power, who went through, figuratively speaking, fire and water – the revolution, the Civil War, the Great Patriotic War. These people really fought, raised the domestic industry, paved the way into space.

Now in power, I believe, there are no such large and strong personalities in the immediate circle of our president. If there have ever been, then they have long been, as they say, cleaned out. This is because the existing system of government simply does not tolerate the presence of such people. So the organization and implementation of a scenario similar to the displacement of Nikita Sergeevich is banal there is no one there to deal with. No, I repeat, there are people of this caliber “at the top”.

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