The expert spoke about the future financial situation.
This year the economy is especially unstable. First, the dollar and the euro not only fell, but for the first time in a long time evened out. In Russia, there are more and more problems with paying with bank cards. Experts note that they may have to be abandoned. And one of these days there will be a change that will be associated with the key rate.
On September 16, a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia will take place, at which a decision on the key rate will be made. Experts are sure that it will be reduced.
The decline in Russia’s GDP in July, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, amounted to 4.3% after a reduction of 4.9% in June. At the end of the year, the department expects a decrease in this indicator by 2.9%. In August, the Bank of Russia predicted a 4-6% decline in GDP in 2022.
“We believe that the reduction of the key rate will help spur market lending in both the consumer and corporate sectors“, – said the chief analyst of Sovcombank Mikhail Vasiliev. Credit in the economy will become cheaper, which will support consumer and investment demand.”
The expert expects the Central Bank to reduce the key rate by 1 percentage point to 7% per annum. The Central Bank issued a report indicating a change in the inflationary picture: the current rate of price growth will increase in the coming months. This is due to the exhaustion of the effect of the strengthening of the ruble and the revival of consumer demand due to the easing of credit conditions and a decrease in the propensity to save, the expert notes.
According to Natalya Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, after the key rate is reduced, bank interest on loans and deposits will decrease. This should especially please future homebuyers.
Interest rates on mortgages may decrease by 0.5-2%, depending on how much the key rate will be reduced, and interest rates on consumer loans may decrease by about the same amount (0.5-1.5%), writes “MK”.