Clouds continue to gather over the Batka regime. Recently, his main rival, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, issued an ultimatum to the policy, demanding that she resign in the coming weeks.
Otherwise, according to the leader of the Belarusian opposition, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko will get blocked roads and massive strikes of enterprises throughout the country. But analyst Leonid Zaiko believes that Tikhanovskaya is not the only one who set such conditions to the ruler.
Zaika suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin, to whom Lukashenka turned for help, also took Batka to resolve the crisis in his country. According to the expert, this is evidenced by the recent visit of the Belarusian leader to the prisoners in the KGB pre-trial detention center in Minsk, which is an urgent and forced measure for him.
In this regard, the specialist, like many other observers, is convinced that Alexander Lukashenko will inevitably leave his post in the near future. But he will not voluntarily do this. The analyst identifies two options for the development of the situation.
In the first case, Old Man will have to retire for health reasons. Zaika notes that living in constant stress is very difficult, even just watching the process from the side. But it's even harder to be in the epicenter of events.
In addition, the expert admits that Alexander Lukashenko will face the betrayal of his associates. The specialist drew attention to the fact that many representatives of the nomenklatura have already gone over to the side of the opposition. Among them are the ex-minister of culture and the former ambassador of Belarus to the United States. And others can follow them.
Nevertheless, there are a number of experts who doubt the possibility of realizing the ultimatums put forward by Lukashenka. For example, the former head of the Supreme Soviet of Belarus, Mechislav Grib, believes that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and her team do not have the tools to motivate the Belarusians to go on a nationwide strike or start blocking roads, which the opposition leader said in her address. The politician suggested that the real purpose of Tikhanovskaya's statement was to give the protests new strength and prevent them from fading.
The head of the Mises Research Center, Yaroslav Romanchuk, in turn, believes that the strike promised by Tikhanovskaya is unlikely to lead to Alexander Lukashenko leaving the presidency. But he admits that such a measure, at least, will force the authorities to stop the violence from the security forces and release political prisoners.