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Oct 15, 2020
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Political scientist on Lukashenka’s prospects: Either real negotiations, or the threat of civil war

Alexander Lukashenko is trying to maneuver and look legitimate in the eyes of the world community. The last dictator of Europe remains less and less likely to successfully hold on to power.

Lukashenka has been trying to experiment lately. Instead of primitive retention of power by force, Old Man tried to imitate negotiations with political opponents.

For this, the president even came to the pre-trial detention center, where the members of the Coordination Council are now. Political analyst Valeriy Karbalevich is convinced that the option under which Lukashenka releases opposition leaders from prison in exchange for loyalty has a right to exist.

Moreover, this development of events has a number of difficulties. The fact is that Lukashenka's demand for his opponents to call on the people to stop the protests will not work. As practice has shown, people go out on the street spontaneously and are guided only by themselves. By and large, even Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and the editor-in-chief of the telegram channel Nexta are not the undisputed leaders of the protest.

Even if individuals appeal to citizens not to protest, it will only provoke anger. Of course, some oppositionists may agree to freedom and start supporting the so-called constitutional reform. However, for this Lukashenka had to legalize this procedure and announce it publicly. But Old Man, in his usual manner, prefers "behind-the-scenes negotiations".

Thus, now Lukashenka has few options left. “That is, Belarus really faced an alternative: either real negotiations, or the threat of a civil war,” Karbalevich summed up.

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