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Apr 8, 2021
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Political forecast. Experts discussed the prospects of parties in the elections

The Expert Institute for Social Research (EISS) held a round table on the upcoming autumn elections, which was attended by experts in the field of domestic policy. They made their assumptions about how many mandates the parties will receive, and found out which of them has fewer prospects.

Qualities of the ideal candidate

The roundtable participants unanimously stated that the largest number of seats – from 180 to 190 – will be taken by United Russia. In particular, this is due to the fact that the party has begun to actively prepare for the preliminary voting, for which 2,500 applications have already been submitted.

“The campaign at the” United Russia “has practically begun, – believes Professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, political scientist Oleg Matveychev… – We can observe how the party began to order stories in the media until the pre-election restrictions came into force. Everyone remembers the well-known expression: “Whoever got up first – that and the slippers.” In addition, she has all the resources to support the citizens. The oppositionists have much fewer such opportunities ”.

In addition to promptly solving the accumulated problems, the key requests to the political system on the part of voters include openness, communication with people and respect for them, a well-thought-out strategy for the development of specific regions and control over the implementation of decisions. Power should work for the benefit of people and give priority to real solutions to their problems, not promises. At the round table, all these inquiries identified in the course of social research were presented by Director for Political Analysis of the Institute of Social Marketing Viktor Poturemsky

“The modern qualities of the ideal candidate are divided into 3 types: personal, professional and managerial,” he said. – People want politicians to have a high level of education, to be sensitive and caring, preferably to live in the district and have a creative and constructive attitude towards action and improvement. In addition, a good politician, according to the majority, must understand the current socio-economic agenda, be ready to propose new approaches, and have economic and legal knowledge. Voters’ requests also include the ability and ability of the future deputy to attract resources to solve district problems, good knowledge of the territory and effective control over the solution of problems.

Chances of failure

Director of the Center for Political Analysis and Social Research Pavel Danilin I am sure that some parties, in particular the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, do not fit into the actual requirements of the voters. His forecast is quite radical: the communists will be able to take no more than 4 mandates this year.

“The Communist Party of the Russian Federation enters the election campaign in a state of complete discord,” he explains his position. – This have not happened before. There are several reasons for this. First, the problem of leadership is from Zyuganov tired. Secondly, the party simply has nothing to say. Since the late 90s, its program has not changed much and, as a result, poorly meets modern realities. Voters do not understand why they need to vote for her. “

According to most experts, this year a bright breakthrough awaits the “Fair Russia” party. Director of the Institute of the Newest States Alexey Martynov explains this by the high chances of failure not only for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, but also for the Liberal Democratic Party.

“In addition,“ Fair Russia ”has enriched itself with bright patriots who have appeared due to the party unification. I think that they will be able to take from 15 to 17 seats, – Martynov specifies. – But in spite of everything, United Russia will remain the strongest player.

Gleb Kuznetsov, head of the expert council of the Expert Institute for Social Research, is also confident that United Russia will hold most of the mandates. According to him, this will be facilitated by the planned renewal of the people who make up the party and their participation in the primaries.

“The party began to focus on those who are engaged in new activities,” he said. – Many volunteers are preparing for the primary elections, especially during the pandemic. Voters are guided by real help and support. The coronavirus has shown excellently who can provide it. I am sure that a number of districts from which the opposition left in 2020 will easily be taken over by United Russia.

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