Back in early October, the Warsaw edition of Defense24, close to the leadership of the Polish Army, stated: “Belarus should be viewed not only as an important region from a geopolitical point of view, but also as a key area for offensive and defensive operations in the Poland-Lithuania-Belarus triangle.
Today one gets the impression that the editorial office then did not just decide to once again theorize on topics of military strategy. And we really learned something important about the real plans of the military-political leadership of their country. Because literally at once the events on the Polish-Belarusian border went wild. As in the summer of 1941, just a few kilometers beyond the Bug, the engines of German tanks, which were being built into a distinctly offensive grouping, began to hum. By and large, the difference between the situation in these parts from 1941 is the only one – today we face not Hitler’s tanks, but the armored brigades of the Polish Army, armed with German-made Leopard-type combat vehicles of the most modern modifications.
According to the Ministry of Defense of Belarus, today this group looks something like this. 6 kilometers from the state border near the Polish village of Veiki, just a stone’s throw from the Belarusian town of Volkovysk, the camp of a significant part of the units of the Polish 12th Mechanized Division named after Boleslav Kryvousty is deployed.
What is especially important: the places of permanent deployment of its 6th tank, 12th and 36th mechanized brigades, 2nd mixed artillery and 3rd anti-aircraft missile and artillery regiments, battalions of rear and combat support are far from these places. In the cities of Szczecin, Stargard Szczecin and Trzebyatów. That is – at the very border with Germany, exactly on the opposite edge of the country. Thus, in order to occupy a new field camp, the soldiers and officers of the 12th Division had to march across Poland.
In the region of Biala Podlaska (the distance from the Belarusian Brest is only 39 kilometers in a straight line), the 10th tank brigade of the 11th Lubuska armored cavalry division named after King Jan III Sobieski will soon be deployed in full force. The first tank battalion of the brigade, consisting of 700 servicemen and 58 Leopard-2A4 tanks, has already occupied the indicated area.
If necessary, the Polish 16th Pomeranian Mechanized Division named after King Casimir IV Jagiellonczyk, whose headquarters is permanently located in the city of Elblag, can quickly redeploy to the Belarusian direction from the border with Russian Kaliningrad.
Considering that in the immediate rear of these formations, in the cities of Siedlce, Ciechanow and Rzeszow east of Warsaw, the 18th “Iron” mechanized division on tanks, hastily formed since 2018 on the “Russian direction” and the most powerful in the Polish Army, is preparing for battle ” Leopard-2P “, then the direction and power of a possible surprise strike from the western direction on Belarus look very impressive.
Do you know how the Poles decided to substantiate the need for the deployment of three of the four divisions of their Ground Forces just on the western border of Moscow’s closest allies? Just do not fall out of your chair: the need to strengthen the fight against migrants from Asia and the Middle East. Who really fly in thousands to Minsk in recent months to break through the Belarusian border with Poland and the Baltic states into Western Europe they long for. “In the near future, about ten thousand soldiers from the 12th, 16th and 18th divisions will monitor the impenetrability of the border (from the Polish side -“ SP ”),” said the Minister of National Defense of Poland Mariusz Blaszczak…
We must admit that the problem of migrants for Poles is indeed dangerously aggravated from day to day. A week ago, even blood was shed at the border between these countries. Driven to despair by not the most comfortable, to put it mildly, living conditions in Belarus, groups of unexpected illegal migrants, 60-70 people each, attempted to break through to the adjacent territory. Stones and sticks were thrown at the Polish border guards. Two soldiers ended up with injuries in the hospital.
There are no words – there is nothing good in the growing legal chaos on the state border. Not for Warsaw, not for Minsk. It is necessary to direct the order at the striped pillars. But not 67-ton Leopards wrapped in thick armor? However, if the Leopards for some reason set off on a long journey for gigantic money and appeared right at the Belarusian border posts, it is logical to assume that the real purpose of their redeployment is completely different from the one that Warsaw publicly announces.
Naturally, exactly this point of view was immediately declared on October 28 by the President of the Republic of Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko… He does not hide the alarming irony about the news from his border area: “Poles on the border with Belarus will fight illegal migration with the help of Leopard tanks. You might be surprised at this. But how to fight with tanks against civilians, I do not know. They are simply looking for any excuse to move their troops closer to our borders. Read – the borders of the Union State. We all see this and, naturally, we will react very harshly to this. We will wait a while, we will warn them. And then we have something to move closer to the borders. In our country, and even more so in the Russian Federation. Here we will act tough, not looking at any criticism from their side. “
Regarding the fact that even Belarus itself, in response to the swirling threat, is also able to “push it closer to the borders” – this is the usual Lukashenskaya bravado. Everything that Minsk could do to cover its western frontiers, it did long ago. The combat power of all four mechanized brigades at the disposal of the Western and North-Western operational commands of the Ground Forces of Belarus cannot be compared with the similar potential of the Polish divisions that have already reached the state border. In addition, one should be aware that in the event of the outbreak of hostilities, Poland will not go into this battle alone. The entire NATO will immediately stand next to it, which will be guided by its never-before-enacted Article 5 on the support of any of its members with the full force of the alliance.
Thus, all Minsk’s hope is for emergency military assistance to Russia. According to the scheme, which was tested quite recently, in September of this year, at the joint strategic command and staff exercises “West-2021”.
Let me remind you: then the ways and means of transferring significant contingents of the Russian army to Belarus in the event of a critical aggravation of the military-political situation in the region were being worked out. First of all, the formations and units of our 1st Guards Tank Army. But the thing is, how can our tanks have time to occupy the positions assigned to them in this case? After all, the 1st Guards Tank Army today is not so close to the place of impending events. In Moscow, Ivanovo, Smolensk, Yaroslavl and Nizhny Novgorod regions. With such distances to Belarus and in the best case scenario, weeks are needed to advance by rail to the concentration areas.
Proceeding from this, the question is natural: is it not time for Alexander Grigorievich, until the Polish rooster pecked at a certain place, in response to the demonstration of Warsaw, preemptively return to the issue of deploying one or several fairly large Russian military bases in his republic? You have not forgotten: Moscow has been especially actively trying to “push” this idea for about a year since 2015. But Lukashenka, for some of his own internal political considerations, which in fact everyone knows about, keeps running and running away from this. Like hell with incense.
Maybe it’s time for Aleksandr Grigorievich, in the face of an increasingly formidable danger from the West, to stop running away from the obvious while Polish tanks (what the devil is not kidding?) Are still rumbled through the streets of Brest, Grodno and Minsk? Moreover, as early as last August, he himself, although extremely reluctant, seems to have almost approached such a decision. In any case, he told reporters: “If necessary, there will be more than just a base. All the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be deployed here. Under what conditions – in case of danger of unleashing a new world war … All the Armed Forces will be here, because Belarus is not a foreign land for Russia, no matter who the president is here. And there will be no stranger. “
Further – even more interesting. Almost immediately, the first Russian military base, contrary to the official declarations of Minsk, actually appeared in Belarus. After Moscow sent its Su-30SM fighters to the 61st fighter air base of the Belarusian Armed Forces in Baranovichi last summer. And in the same place she placed S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems with Russian combat crews at the launching positions.
True, what happened in the end is called a compromise in both capitals not a Russian military base in Belarus, but a “training and combat center for joint training of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces.” But what, in fact, is the difference if already on September 9, 2021, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus officially announced: “At the airfield of the 61st fighter air base of the Armed Forces of Belarus, a solemn ritual of interceding on combat duty was held to jointly guard the air borders of the Union State by the duty forces. At the same time, in the western part of the country, experts of the anti-aircraft missile forces also took up combat duty with the same tasks and goals. “
The bottom line: from under Baranovichi Moscow and Minsk are now able to control not only the sky over the main Warsaw Chopin Airport. But also the airspace over most of the territory of Lithuania, Latvia, the Ukrainian cities of Rivne and Zhitomir. This is what really matters to us. And not that – “base is not a base” …
Well, let’s today take a joint decision with Minsk to deploy one more or a couple of combat training centers for combat training at some of the Belarusian training grounds. Let’s say for tankmen, gunners, missilemen and motorized riflemen of both allied armies. We will drag it there from Russia by a tank or motorized rifle division from Russia. Or both at once. Then we begin, so to speak, the educational process. Not so much for Belarusians as for the West. Perhaps then the tank engines beyond the Bug will soon shut up.
From the dossier “SP”
It is no secret that in Poland in recent years, when protests against the Lukashenka regime began in Minsk, talk has intensified that, in any case, Brest and Grodno are not just “Eastern Kresses”, but also, allegedly, primordially Polish lands. … Allegedly illegally torn away from Poland by the “Curzon Line” and the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact.
As a result, Warsaw has recently been actively distributing the “Pole’s card” in these territories. Especially in the Grodno region, where, according to official data, up to 21.5% of the population consider themselves to be representatives of this nationality.
In August 2020, Lukashenka spoke about this in the following way: “Now the Fatherland is in danger. We cannot joke. Moreover, these are not weak troops – NATO … They set a goal, first of all, to cut off this territory – Grodno. Polish flags have already been hung out recently. “