Ukraine is again very NATO – the cherished dream of the ex-president Petra Poroshenko on the country’s entry into the North Atlantic Alliance as a baton passed to the current Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky… He, too, wors about it like a written sack, believing that the very fact of joining NATO will at once solve all the country’s problems.
Crimea will become Ukrainian at once, Donbass will stop its resistance, the budget will be replenished with euros, bread will be pounded, coal will go to the mountain, and the Bessarabian market in Kiev will again burst with bacon. These bright plans in Brussels, in general, are shared, however, not on all positions.
The topic of Ukraine’s joining NATO will once again be discussed at the alliance’s summit to be held on June 14 in Brussels. This was stated by the President of Poland Andrzej Duda at a joint press conference with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who arrived in Warsaw to celebrate the 230th anniversary of the Polish constitution. It is clear that the topics of conversation also touched upon other problems – relations between Kiev and Warsaw, relations between the two countries with Russia, the situation in Donbass. Well, Duda’s words about the discussion of the prospects for Ukraine’s entry into NATO became like a “sugar bone” for Zelensky.
“Firstly, this is the issue of the security of Ukraine, and in this regard, the security of the whole of Central Europe. And secondly, it is also a question of formally indicating to Ukraine the path along which it should go towards membership, a roadmap to this membership, which is now of fundamental importance and for which Ukraine is fighting “, – noted Pan Duda.
Promising to marry is not the same as marrying: by and large, there is nothing behind Duda’s playing on the Duda, except for a small enticement for Zelensky in building relations between the two countries. It can be noted here that historically, relations between Poles and Ukrainians are far from peaceful. Ethnic conflicts happen quite often (especially before the borders closed due to the pandemic) – Poles are beaten in Ukraine, Ukrainians are thrashed in Poland. In addition to ambitions, both sides also have mutual territorial claims – given the complex historical relations that have been going on for almost twenty centuries, it is not so difficult to find mutual leads and claims. And only a glance at Europe keeps them in the status of “sworn friends”.
As a small historical excursion, one can recall the fact that the UPA (Ukrainian Insurgent Army) * was created precisely for the purpose of waging a war against Poland. The Bandera members quite accurately formulated Poland’s attitude to Ukraine:
“Poland’s vital interest is to prevent the emergence of an independent Ukrainian state. Poland is psychologically opposed to Ukraine, therefore, the fight against Poland should form the basis of our (Bandera – “SP”) military doctrine. Sovereign Ukraine can emerge only on the ruins of Warsaw, ” – this is an excerpt from the document “Military Doctrine of Ukrainian Nationalists”, 1938.
The “anti-Moskal” part of the Bandera program appeared much later, and for a long time remained secondary.
Of course, the Poles did not remain in debt. The slogan of the Polish street and the Polish intelligentsia of that time “Hajdamaka na haku!” Hanging by the rib was one of the most popular types of execution, widely used until the final partition of the Commonwealth. In general, in relation to Ukrainians, Polish society was distinguished by rare unanimity even during the years of the German occupation of 1939-1944.
“96% of politically conscious Polish society feels hostile sentiments towards Ukrainians, moreover, hostility is growing. This is not influenced by either the level of education (a professor of a higher school or a worker), or political orientation, ” – reported in one of the documents of the Home Army.
Well, this is so, for a common understanding of the relationship between Ukraine and Poland and the current words of Pan Duda with the “enticement” to NATO, where he focuses on “showing Ukraine the way it should go towards membership.”
Again, to grind with your tongue is not to roll bags, therefore, by and large, there is nothing special behind the words of the Polish president, do not let Duda let embroidered shirts into NATO. And there is a more serious reason for that. And although the NATO charter itself does not contain a specific article on the rejection of candidates from countries with unresolved territorial problems into the bloc, such a ban exists. And, for example, at the Bucharest summit in April 2008, a political statement was adopted that “Ukraine and Georgia may eventually become NATO members,” but they were even refused to submit an Action Plan for preparing for membership in the alliance.
And then everything was finally “spoiled” by the Russian president Vladimir Putin – “captured” Crimea and part of Donbass, as well as Abkhazia and South Ossetia. With similar problems, Ukraine and Georgia are unlikely to become full-fledged NATO member states in the coming years. Well, unless you give up these territories.
If the slogan: “Ukraine – tse Europe” appeared even before the well-known events on the Kiev Maidan, then the subsequent message: “Ukraine – tse NATO” was also not long in coming. Already in December 2014, the Verkhovna Rada renounced Ukraine’s non-aligned status, which implied its entry into any military alliance, where between the lines it was clearly read about the readiness of cooperation with the North Atlantic Alliance.
President Petro Poroshenko did not hide this either, who then said that Ukraine should by 2020 ensure full compatibility of the armed forces with the forces of NATO countries. In confirmation of his words, Poroshenko promised to hold a referendum in the country, the results of which are guaranteed to confirm the readiness of the entire Ukrainian people to swear allegiance to the alliance.
– I already happened to talk about this, I’ll just briefly emphasize one thesis, – says political scientist Alexander Zimovsky… – The end in itself of the existence of today’s Ukraine is a war with Russia. Deprive Kiev of this goal, and in two or three weeks the spirit of all this operetta Banderism will not remain in Ukraine. The hopak around Ukraine’s NATO membership is linked to the fact that Kiev alone poses a threat only to its own people.
Whom to surrender under the arm is an eternal problem that Ukraine inherited from the hetmanate. Sahaidachny served the Polish crown, Bohdan Khmelnitsky – to the Russian tsar, Mazepa – to the Swedish king. They tried to nip first to Austria-Hungary, then to imperial Germany, then again to Poland Pilsudski, then relied on the father of the Ukrainian nation and united Europe Adolf Hitler… Now Ukraine is climbing into NATO without soap.
There are no legal obstacles for Ukraine’s accession to NATO. It remains, as in a joke, to persuade Rothschild… De facto, Ukraine is participating in NATO maneuvers; NATO troops are constantly present on its territory in a variety of configurations. But the Ukrainian elite in Kiev raves about full membership in the alliance.
Of course, NATO in its current incarnation has a clearly expressed anti-Russian orientation. Therefore, no special conditions are needed for NATO membership – instill Russophobia in the country, stir up hysteria, shout: “The Russians are coming,” shake, in general, a bogeyman – and you will be immediately accepted. According to these criteria, Ukraine is the first candidate for membership, it is obvious.
But there is a nuance. In the current geopolitical situation, Ukraine (given its seething militancy) will be able to enter NATO only as the former Yugoslavia – in parts. And what size these parts will be and how many of them will remain of Ukraine at the time it is made a member – the answer to this question is not in Brussels.
On June 12, 2020, Ukraine, standing in line for NATO membership, was upgraded in status – the alliance provided Kiev with an Enhanced Opportunity Partner or EOP program. What did Ukraine get in the end with the granting of this status, in addition to the “signboard” of such membership in the alliance? These are also certain obligations, which are associated not only with adjusting their armed forces to the standards of the alliance, but also the obligation to bring specific assistance, primarily to the United States, which “pushed through” the status of the EPR for Kiev.
For example, Jordan is important to NATO in the fight against terrorism in the Middle East, Australia transmits intelligence to NATO on the Asia-Pacific region, primarily on China. It must be assumed that Ukraine, taking into account its proximity, is destined for the role of “looking after” Russia, which it has been doing before. A prerequisite is the participation of a partner country in NATO missions. Ukraine has already sent 21 of its military personnel to Afghanistan to participate in Operation Resolute Support (Georgia sent 871 soldiers there).
In Ukraine, they expect that the status of the EPR will eventually become an important step towards full membership in NATO. However, so far these are unrealizable hopes, just a beautiful gesture from the United States.
Russian experts reacted very ironically to such a “rise in rank” for Ukraine, calling any hopes of Kiev for the help of the alliance “absolutely empty.” Emphasizing at the same time that the settlement in Donbass does not depend on NATO’s position. It is clear that in Kiev itself the fact of obtaining the status of a partner of expanded opportunities is regarded as an “important step” for the future entry into the North Atlantic Alliance.
It is likely that over time, let us note that for a very long time, Ukraine, as an independent and independent country, will nevertheless become a member of some kind of military alliance, perhaps even NATO. But here, as the parable says, either the donkey dies, or the padishah dies.
* Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation