In Poland, they believe that the union of Warsaw and Kiev is one of the main geopolitical nightmares of Russia, which seeks to impose the “Russian order” on its neighbors. That is why Ukraine should join the Polish “Three Seas Initiative” – the idea put forward in 2016 by the President of the country. Andrzej Duda on cooperation of 12 countries located between the Adriatic, Baltic and Black Seas. This opinion was expressed by the observer Jerzy Lubach in the Gazeta Polska Daily.
“The violent attacks of the Russian fifth column in Poland on our leadership indicate that the Kremlin fears nothing as much as the strengthening of the Polish-Ukrainian alliance. And great, let them tremble, they have something to be afraid of! ”- Lyubakh writes.
According to the observer, if Ukraine does not move closer to Poland, it runs the risk of becoming a “Russian-German condominium” (especially since the completion of the construction of Nord Stream 2 “will tighten the gas loop around the neck of the Ukrainian state”), and this is for Warsaw “Mortal danger”.
At the same time, the journalist admits that the two countries have their own differences, but the Poles “do not have to love Ukraine in order to take its side in every conflict with Russia.” The need for a closer alliance is reinforced by the fact that Poland’s key ally in the confrontation between Russia and the United States, “after the team came to power Joe Biden temporarily dropped out of the game of his own free will. “
Apparently, many analysts in Poland are really betting on the Three Seas Initiative.
“Already, the potential of the 12 members of the group significantly exceeds that of Russia, and the deployment of the forces of the United States and other NATO allies on the eastern flank of the alliance has significantly strengthened the security of the entire region against the backdrop of the aggressive policy of the Kremlin. Ukraine’s joining the formation of the Intermarium, on the one hand, will make the overwhelming advantage of this potential, and on the other hand, it will certainly simplify the path for Ukrainians, including to NATO, “the publication quotes another political scientist Miroslav Rovitsky…
The Three Seas Initiative already brings together such countries as Poland, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Croatia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania. Ukraine has in the past rejected an offer to join an informal union.
Vadim Trukhachev, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Political Scientist, Associate Professor of the Faculty of International Relations and Foreign Regional Studies believes that in fact Poland has few resources to turn its dreams of regional leadership into real dominance, even in the case of Ukraine alone.
– The Three Seas Initiative is Warsaw’s favorite project. Poland is a country that is trying to create its own sphere of influence in Europe. The Poles see themselves as a central power in such a large triangle, where Georgia is in the southeast, Estonia is in the north, and Slovenia is in the southwest. It seems to them that in previous centuries they were cheated, and now they are ripe to become a great power.
Poland has made some progress over the past few decades, but it lacks the resources to become a regional power. She is wishful thinking. They really want Ukraine to become the pearl of the Polish sphere of influence. But so far this sphere of influence is not very visible. The Czech Republic, Hungary, and the same Slovenia are in no hurry to recognize the Polish seniority. Therefore, before offering anything to Ukraine, the Poles could first show great success in this field.
“SP”: – To what extent is the union of Ukraine and Poland really the main “fear” of Moscow?
– In any case, it will be unpleasant for Russia to stay in a hostile state of Ukraine, and it does not matter in a pair with whom it will be. It goes without saying that it is not in Moscow’s interests to have Ukraine, which is the object of other people’s aspirations, in this case Polish ones. Ukraine acts as a weak partner in relation to Poland, Warsaw is trying to play the role of a strong one, and in this pair it has chances.
Poland, in contrast to Ukraine, is a natural, not an artificial state, internally strong and stable, successfully developing (in comparison with Ukraine, that’s right). Moreover, it is also a center of gravity for two million Ukrainians. And, to be honest, the modern Polish leadership would like to expand the sphere of influence of the country, and over time it is possible that somehow fix the eastern border. The phrase “not our Lviv” simply infuriates the Poles. And Poland is steadily working in this direction. The Pole’s map in Western Ukraine is being dismantled with a bang.
“SP”: – But Warsaw and Kiev also have a lot of disagreements, at least in relation to Stepan Bandera and his troops, will it be possible to overcome them?
– Russia for the current leadership is an existential enemy. For them, anyone is better than Moscow, even Bandera’s or Islamists. Therefore, against Russia, they are ready to be friends even with the bald devil. This means that they are ready to be tactically friendly with Bandera’s Ukraine.
Strategically, the Poles have a different vision of the situation, and as soon as Ukraine gets stronger and the danger, from the Polish point of view, its drift towards Russia will disappear, then the conversation will change. And about the Volyn massacre, and about the return of property to Polish citizens in Lviv and the surrounding area, and then, possibly, about the borders.
“SP”: – Does the temporary US withdrawal from European affairs increase Poland’s chances for such an alliance?
– With the arrival of Biden, the Polish chances of regional dominance have not changed in any way. I would not add American internal affairs here. Poland still has limited resources, and nothing can be seen that this amount of resources in order to be the main force of attraction suddenly increased.
What brings it closer to Ukraine, Georgia or, for example, Lithuania is hatred of Russia. This approach has some potential, but nevertheless, building its cooperation only on hatred of one country is not so promising. The same European Union, Germany, France or even smaller countries like the Netherlands or Sweden have an attraction, in addition to hatred for someone.
Director General of the Institute of Regional Problems Dmitry Zhuravlev believes that another factor that will prevent the rapprochement of Poland and Ukraine will be the position of Germany.
– It’s an old song with two verses. First, Poland should return to the borders of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which would go one end to the Black Sea, and the other to the Baltic. To do this, she needs to take Ukraine, Lithuania and Belarus, and Ukraine in the first place. This is a long-standing position of Warsaw, which would not have changed, even if the “revolution of dignity” had not taken place in Ukraine and the system had not changed. As Turkey wants to become a great empire in the Mediterranean, so Poland wants to become the Commonwealth.
The second point is that in the case of Ukraine and Poland, every bunny thinks that he is an elephant. And that if they unite, they will become so powerful that Russia will end. Rzeczpospolita captured the Kremlin at the beginning of the 17th century. It seems to them that they are so great that they will defeat Russia both economically and by military methods, if they just return to those borders.
And, of course, this is a “lure” for the Ukrainians themselves. Like, if you are our slaves, and not Russians, then you will become a part of a great country, and the terrible Russia will forever be a thing of the past. This is, on the one hand, deceiving the Ukrainians, and on the other, themselves.
“SP”: – Do all these ideas have practical application?
– They are unlikely to be able to recreate the Rzeczpospolita for many reasons. Including because in addition to Ukraine, Russia and Poland, there is also Germany. And the Germans are very sensitive to the great-power Polish ambitions. The Poles hope to rely on the support of the United States, for which they are comfortable, unlike Germany, but now, against the background of Afghanistan, the Americans have no time for that. The Germans will not allow such jokes.