On September 30, the government of the Russian Federation submitted to the State Duma bill No. 1258296-7 “On the budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation for 2022 and for the planning period of 2023 and 2024”. The package of documents has been published on the State Duma website for discussion, which will last until October 18.
The bill envisages an increase in revenues to the Pension Fund and a surplus in 2023 (excess of income over expenses). But the most interesting thing is the table of the forecast of the number of pensioners. If at the beginning of 2021 their number is estimated at 42 million 984.0 thousand people, then at the beginning of 2022 it is planned in the amount of 42 million 586.9 thousand people, and at the beginning of 2023 – 42 million 260 , 5 thousand people That is, in the next year alone, the number of pensioners in Russia should decrease by 326.4 thousand people. And we are talking about the reduction of the main category – recipients of insurance pensions.
Interesting, right? In 2018, when the government, the State Duma, the president, all officials and their hired propagandists justified raising the retirement age, they said that Russia was aging rapidly, the number of elderly people would grow more and more every year, so there is no other way out than raising the retirement age. no. However, after that, the number of pensioners began to decline just as rapidly.
Here are the official figures from the website of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). The first data available there refer to December 31, 1998 and amount to 38 million 410 thousand pensioners. As of December 31, 1999 – 38 million 381 thousand people, as of December 31, 2000 – 38 million 411 thousand people, as of December 31, 2001 – 38 million 630 thousand people, as of December 31, 2002 – 38 million 432 thousand people, as of December 31, 2003 – 38 million 164 thousand people. as of December 31, 2004 – 38 million 184 thousand people, as of December 31, 2005 – 38 million 313 thousand people, as of December 31, 2006 – 38 million 325 thousand people.
After the government default in 1998 and a sharp collapse of income at the beginning of the 2000s, the number of pensioners declined in 2002-2003, but then it starts to grow again.
For 2007, data is available only for March 1, April 1, July 1 and October 1, so let’s take the data as of January 1, 2008 – 38 million 467 thousand people. As of January 1, 2009 – 38 million 598 thousand people. For 2010, again, the data is available only for April 1, July 1 and October 1, so let’s take the figure for December 31, 2009 – 39 million 90 thousand people. As of January 1, 2011 – 39 million 706 thousand people, as of January 1, 2012 – 40 million 162 thousand people, as of January 1, 2013 – 40 million 573 thousand people, as of January 1, 2014 – 41 million 19 thousand people For 2015, the data is available only for April 1, July 1 and October 1, so let’s take the data as of December 31, 2014 – 41 million 456 thousand people.
As of January 1, 2016 – 42 million 729 thousand people, as of January 1, 2017 – 43 million 177 thousand people, as of January 1, 2018 – 43 million 504 thousand people, as of January 1, 2019 – 43 million 865 thousand people The growth goes on every year. And here a turning point occurs, coinciding with the raising of the retirement age. As of January 1, 2020, the number of registered pensioners is 43 million 546 thousand people, as of January 1, 2021 – 42 million 977 thousand people.
Then the covid “worked” well, which in just a year – from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021 – reduced the number of people receiving a pension by 1,199,000 people (from 43,554,000 to 42 million . 355 thousand people). This is a record reduction in retirees in the entire history of available statistics since 1998. These figures, published at the end of August this year, were so shocking that Rosstat for a while simply closed access to quarterly reports on pensioners on its website. No numbers, no problem.
You involuntarily ponder, and not for a radical permanent reduction in the number of recipients of pensions, and this whole pension reform was thought? “The increase in the retirement age was caused by the desire to reduce the burden on the pension system, reduce the deficit of the Pension Fund and reduce the transfer to cover this deficit from the federal budget. So far, this has been successfully done: in 2019 and 2020, the PFR budget was in surplus (including transfers). However, the reduction in the number of pensioners as a result of a gradual increase in the retirement age did not lead to an increase in the well-being of the older generation. “, Says Elena Kiseleva, an analyst at the Institute for Comprehensive Strategic Studies.
“If the number of pensioners has decreased by half a million, then the state will start saving at least 100 billion rubles on social benefits. in year. This is a lot. For example, in 2020, the authorities reported on state support to business in the amount of 500 billion. But those were one-time measures. And the reduction in pension liabilities is permanent “, – explains Natalya Nenasheva, Managing Partner of Topline.
It’s simple – the maximum reduction in government obligations, although it continues to pull taxes from us more and more, entangling a web of control over literally every transaction. It’s just that now all this is his personal money – not ours.