On June 10, a meeting of the Central Bank on the key rate will be held. Now it is 11%, and before the start of the special operation it was, we recall, 9.5%. Many analysts are convinced that this time the key rate will also be reduced. The question is how much.
According to Timur Bayanov, senior personal broker for international markets at BCS World of Investments, it is likely that the Central Bank will decide to bring the key rate to the level it was before February 24. At the same time, the analyst does not expect major changes in the exchange rate after the decision of the Bank of Russia to lower the key rate even by 1.5 percentage points.
Doctor of Economic Sciences Igor Nikolaev believes that the rate will be reduced by 1% – to a round value of 10%. According to him, this will not have any strong impact on the current exchange rate of the ruble, because the previous change has largely been won back, and long before the Central Bank meeting, market participants understood that if there was a further decline, it would be small.
“At present, a small amount,” the expert clarifies, “because in a calm economy, one percentage point is significant. But we are now living in conditions of such turbulence that yes, this slight decrease will not have any strong impact, this is an expected decision,” he said.
In order for the economy to work, the key rate should be lower, says financial analyst, candidate of economic sciences Mikhail Belyaev. With an expensive loan, the industry cannot function effectively, it is very difficult for the real sector of the economy to work.
“Industrial enterprises simply cannot work without credit. This is not about an investment loan to expand its activities, but even about current work. If you pay high interest on a loan, your business immediately becomes difficult. And this means that all positive results are postponed. Jobs will not be created, the economy will not be strengthened … Meanwhile, development is not buried, but it is being postponed, – the expert notes. – I would like to reduce the key rate immediately by 2%. Although I understand that it is also impossible to reduce sharply, because the economy also does not respond very well to all these sharp jerks. ”
Experts stressed that in stable times there is simply no direct and immediate connection between the key rate and the national currency rate. However, in the current reality, everything is changing: for example, immediately after an unscheduled decrease in the key rate from 14% to 11% two weeks ago, the ruble immediately lost ground.
During the conference, experts also gave advice to consumers on the ever-popular question: is it worth investing in dollars now. The course itself is, of course, now very profitable. But not all analysts believe that it is necessary to run for currency in exchangers.
“I would take a break in terms of buying and selling. Especially if it is not connected with a trip abroad and you don’t need currency right now,” Igor Nikolaev believes. — If we talk specifically about savings, then we see how volatile the exchange rate is. Let him calm down a little. By the way, in this regard, the task of the stability of the national currency is not yet very fulfilled: the rate walks back and forth twice. Therefore, the recommendation: it is better not to twitch at all yet.
But Timur Bayanov believes that there is no need to take any pauses. “The US dollar has been and will continue to be a currency that makes sense to keep in portfolios. In my opinion, having a part of the funds in foreign currency and using the current exchange rate for further investment in the dollar is definitely worth it. Euro in terms of diversification is also worth considering. But you should not bet on francs and yuan – in view of the impossibility of doing anything with this money, ”he said.
But the experts refused to predict the future exchange rate of the ruble: too many uncertainties remain on the market, and most of the risk factors are related not to the economy, but to geopolitics.