If all the measures that different states are taking to stimulate the economy amid the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic work, then the cost of a barrel of oil mixture may reach $ 70. Such data are provided in the optimistic scenario presented in the long-term forecast of the International Energy Agency.
The coronavirus is gradually being brought under control in 2021, and the global economy returns to pre-crisis levels in the same year. This scenario reflects all the political intentions and goals announced today., - said in the IEA report.
The agency also prepared a second scenario called "delayed recovery". According to this forecast, the economy will return to pre-crisis levels only by 2023. However, it notes that "the pandemic marks the decade with the lowest growth in energy demand since the 1930s." In this case, the cost of oil will only reach $ 59 per barrel by 2025.
The IEA also has a perfect prognosis without a pandemic. In this case, due to the dynamics of demand for raw materials, black gold would reach a value above $ 95 by 2025 and above $ 100 after.
As for the measures that exporting countries are taking during the crisis, we are talking about the OPEC + deal. In May, the cartel cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day. Since August, this quota has been reduced to 7.7 million and, according to a further plan, from January 1, 2021, it should decrease to 5.8 million. In other words, oil production should increase by almost another 2 million barrels per day.
The original plan assumed that the parameters of the deal could be revised in December 2021. However, a small exception was already made last summer - the OPEC + countries extended the maximum production cut of 9.7 million barrels per day for a month.
On the evening of October 13, world oil quotes continued to rise by 1.5-2% amid declining concerns around the demand for raw materials. This is evidenced by the data of trading floors, chernayakobra.ru wrote.