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Oct 16, 2021
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NATO scares Kaliningrad with naval blockade and hunger

Photo: Israeli anti-ship cruise missile, developed by the IAI corporation.

Photo: Israeli anti-ship cruise missile, developed by the IAI corporation. (Photo: wikipedia.org)

Estonia’s purchase of Blue Spear anti-ship missiles, the latest modification of Israel’s Gabriel, gives Tallinn a “unique opportunity to create problems for Russia” in the Baltic Sea. A military observer writes about this in his new article for Forbes magazine David Ax (David Ax).

He argues as follows: since the missile range exceeds 300 km, in the event of an armed conflict, this will allow not only to control sea approaches to Kaliningrad, but also to strike at St. Petersburg, which is only 150 km from the Estonian border.

On Monday, October 6, it became known that the Estonian Defense Investment Center (ECDI) has signed a contract with the Israeli-Singaporean company Proteus Advanced Systems for the supply of Blue Spear anti-ship missiles to equip mobile coastal missile systems.

Captain 1st Rank, Commander of the Estonian Navy, said pathetically Yuri Saska, these missiles will become the “cornerstone” of the republic’s naval defense for a decade to come.

Exactly how many “copies” (each missile costs about five million dollars) Tallinn is going to put into service, Aix, by his own admission, does not know. However, he has already found a use for them in the event of a military confrontation between the West and Russia.

In particular, the expert proposes to arrange for Kaliningrad, the “weak point” of which he considers supply, a blockade. To cause famine there and thereby reduce the threat to NATO.

That is, he openly calls on the countries of the alliance to adopt as a model the tactics of Nazi Germany against Leningrad during the Great Patriotic War.

“Anti-ship missiles launched from mobile ground launchers certainly have defensive capabilities. Especially if the threat comes from, say, Russian amphibious assault forces. But these same missiles are also offensive. Estonian new missiles, located in one of the most important maritime bottlenecks in Europe, could help cut off the flow of food, fuel and reinforcements from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad, ”writes Ex.

Moreover, he is confident that in the event of a conflict, such missiles will be able to carry out attacks against ground targets. First of all, in St. Petersburg, to which the “Blue Spear” from Estonia easily reaches.

One thing is not clear. Why did the Forbes author decide that Russia, a nuclear power, would meekly watch as NATO countries form a blockade ring around our territory. Moreover, in international law, a naval blockade already means an actual declaration of war.

To assess the threat posed by the new Estonian acquisition, JV asked military expert, editor of the magazine “Arsenal of the Fatherland” Alexei Leonkov:

– I would not exaggerate the degree of this threat. Still, militarily, Russia and Estonia are different weight categories.

As for the Israeli missile, its range is about 290 km. From the territory of Estonia (from all its points) to Kaliningrad, it is clearly not possible – there is a distance of 400 km. That is, the Estonian coastal complexes equipped with these missiles do not threaten Kaliningrad in any way. St. Petersburg – yes. It is indeed a hundred and fifty kilometers from the Estonian border to it.

But everyone forgets that in the Pskov and Novgorod regions we have Iskanders. These same complexes, by the way, are on alert in the Kaliningrad region. And so they finish off to Tallinn calmly.

“SP”: – And in the event of a real threat to the territorial integrity of the country, they can be used in nuclear equipment. And where will this Estonia be then?

“I don’t think it will come to that. Since the entire territory of Estonia – up and down – is covered by our operational-tactical missile systems.

Why David Ax, who, by the way, heads the military department in the magazine, kept silent about this, is understandable. Because he writes his articles exclusively from the point of view of propaganda. Serious analysts will never make statements like that a complex is the very weapon of victory that gives unique chances. This is all propaganda that does not correspond to the concepts of military expertise.

Since each type of weapon is an integral part in a combined arms or naval battle. It plays its role, has its place and fulfills the task assigned to it.

So, coastal complexes with Blue Spear, for example, can provide some kind of protection. But the fact is that ships with missile systems, which have a much greater range, will not enter its affected area. This means that our ships with “ship-to-surface” missiles, as they say, will complete all this coastal defense in advance. And Estonians simply will not have time to show their wonderful abilities.

In addition, you need to understand that the air force and operational-tactical missile systems will work on this complex.

That is, I dare to suggest that the appearance of these missiles in Estonia will in no way affect the balance of power that has now developed in the Baltic Sea.

“SP”: – What exactly can we oppose?

– The Kaliningrad region is our fortified area, which has all degrees of protection from enemy ships and from air attacks. Plus, the Baltic Fleet is based there, which has enough various systems to deal with surface, underwater, air targets, and even ground targets, if combat missions require it.

Then, do not forget that we have a whole Western military district bordering on Estonia, which also has enough weapons. And if Tallinn suddenly tries to do something like that – for example, they fire at some of our merchant ships – the consequences will be quite quick.

“SP”: – Are you surprised that the Forbes military columnist believes that Estonia will go to conflict with Russia?

– Rather, it’s just such propaganda – look, they say, we are a little proud Estonia, but we can show the nuclear power who is boss in the Baltic. We must somehow justify the purchase of these missiles. Moreover, in such an authoritative and well-known publication.

But it all looks like in the well-known fable – “Oh, Pug, to know she is strong that barks at the Elephant” …

In fact, in NATO’s plans, the Baltic states must fulfill their only task. Since the three Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) are located inside the Russian air defense zone, their task is to try to undermine this zone from the inside. In other words, to inflict maximum damage on the air defense systems that we have located in the Kaliningrad, Novgorod, Pskov and Leningrad regions.

At the same time, you need to understand that any such attempt will be immediately stopped. And the one who attacks us is destroyed.

Alexey Podberezkin, Director of the Center for Political-Military Problems of MGIMO, specialist on national security and military policy, in the comments of RIA Novosti Crimea, admitted that Estonia may well “aim missiles” at the industrial areas of St. Petersburg. However, Russia, according to him, “will keep in mind the fact of purchasing this weapon” and will draw the appropriate conclusions.

“And do not harbor any illusions – in modern warfare, these systems will become the first targets for strike, as well as air defense, as well as means for hitting targets at increased range. It is quite possible that during a crisis, even before the outbreak of hostilities, everything that is in the active access zone, that is, 500 km from the Russian border, becomes an object for the first strike. We will not wait until these missiles are launched, ”Podberezkin explained.

He noted that a war does not start with an “announcement” or a note. In the current realities, everything happens differently.

“The Estonian side and their allies, and I mean Poland, are becoming that asset that the United States can use in the first hours of the conflict and, naturally, nothing will remain there,” the expert summed up.

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