Nov 14, 2021
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National Interest: West urges Zelenskiy to a big war

In the photo: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky

In the photo: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Photo: AP Photo / Efrem Lukatsky / TASS)

The United States and its NATO partners are playing a dangerous game of arming Ukraine, because by doing so they only “exacerbate the already dangerous tensions between Kiev and Moscow.” This opinion was expressed in an article for the National Interest by an authoritative American expert in the field of defense and foreign policy. Ted Carpenter

The analyst called the strategy of the West extremely reckless. Because, in his opinion, “faith in the military support of the United States and NATO can force the Ukrainian leadership to abandon prudence and start an unfortunate confrontation.”

Carpenter also recalled military aid from Washington totaling $ 60 million, which Kiev received last month. And about the Turkish “Bayraktars”, one of which recently struck the Donbass. He also pointed to joint military exercises that NATO and Ukraine regularly conduct, including near the Russian borders.

Such actions on the part of Western partners cause excessive enthusiasm in Kiev, which may result in unnecessary destabilization, the analyst said.

“Leaders of Ukraine, including the President Vladimir Zelenskyare already making hurray-patriotic statements about the return of Crimea and the defeat of the militias in Donbass, ”he writes. And he emphasizes that logically “such bragging looks pointless”, since the Ukrainian armed forces cannot be compared with the Russian ones either in quantity or in quality.

The author also suggests referring to the events of 2008, when the United States convinced one of its allies – Georgia and its then president Mikhail Saakashvili – that they are ready to provide military support in the event of a clash with the Russian Federation. As a result, this led to a senseless armed conflict, in which “the humiliated” client “(Saakashvili – ed.) Was left bruised” without waiting for the assistance promised by the White House.

The American expert believes that the Georgian fiasco should become a warning for Kiev: if he, relying on the US and NATO, provokes a conflict with Moscow, he will face the same disappointment and humiliation.

Carpenter advises Washington and its Alliance partners to abandon “their dangerous policies.” Since the transformation of Ukraine into a full-fledged ally of the West is already a violation of the very “red lines” that were previously outlined by the Kremlin.

“Measures that induce an unstable client to provocations, which he himself will not be able to withstand if his more powerful adversary responds with an escalation, are blatant foreign policy incompetence. And the transfer of modern weapons to Ukraine is a textbook example of such stupidity, ”he says.

Of course, any sane person is unlikely to disagree with this. But the fact is that the West just lacks this very common sense lately, and the political leadership of Ukraine is doing very badly with the ability to think soberly.

A direct confirmation of the latter, for example, may well be the recent statement of the Ukrainian opposition politician Vasily Volga that Zelensky and his generals believed so much in the support of the United States that they are ready to “try Donbass for strength” again. Moreover, according to Volga, they have a “concrete conviction” that Russia will not react to an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine if “the 6th US Fleet is stationed in the Black Sea.”

Actually, the purpose of appointing the inveterate Russophobe and Nazi as the new Minister of Defense ReznikovaAs one of the “servants of the people” in the Verkhovna Rada admitted the other day, the point is “to drag the United States into closer cooperation with Ukraine and create at least one NATO military base” on its territory.

It turns out that the American expert was right when he said that pumping Ukraine with weapons and the desire to indulge it in everything from the West could cost the whole world dearly.

The only question is, will his fears be taken seriously?

– Firstly, I am not at all sure that these are fears, for me it is, rather, a statement of an absolutely obvious fact, – comments on the situation international lawyer, associate professor of the RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation Kira Sazonova… – And here the question already arises, which side, to what extent, so to speak, critically, assesses everything that is happening.

As it seems to me, from the standpoint of an American expert, all of the above is an absolute plus. Because the policy of “controlled chaos”, the so-called, is one of the cornerstones of virtually all American foreign policy.

That is, any unwanted partner, he collides with his closest neighbor, completely plunges into the abyss of this confrontation.

We see this, for example, in the situation between China and Taiwan, which they are trying to push, including artificially from the outside. And, of course, another such odious example is Russia and Ukraine, which are geopolitical neighbors nearby. Naturally, we cannot get away from each other, therefore this card, it is played.

And the question of what the “divide and conquer” strategy gives, which, of course, was not invented by the Americans, but was used in ancient Rome, this question, in general, is open. Because, of course, this brings continuous inconvenience to the world. But history also shows us that sometimes a situation arises when the “applicant” of such a strategy finds himself in a very negative situation. Until the collapse.

The position that chaos is controlled from the outside, and it will never come to the doorstep, after September 11, 2001, in my opinion, completely discredited itself.

Then it became clear that in the global world everything is connected with everything. Therefore, naturally, it is possible to create hotbeds of instability, but you need to understand that there will be consequences. And yes! – indeed, for the whole world, including.

“SP”: – Will those to whom it is addressed hear this warning?

– Again, I don’t see any warning here, it’s just a statement of fact.

American foreign policy and the people who pursue it – regardless of who sits as president in the White House – are well aware of it. They perceived this policy for a number of objective reasons, which, apparently, seem to them to be correct and justified.

Therefore, in my opinion, all this will continue.

It is another matter that countries that become, like Ukraine, actually hostages or, poetically speaking, “bargaining chips” of such a policy, need to be very clear that at a fateful moment help will not come. This is quite obvious.

The format of promises and some kind of illusion, I would say, of their own impunity for such states, is a very dangerous tendency, first of all, for themselves.

Therefore, it seems to me that here you just need to very clearly understand your national interests and draw the right conclusions based on the mistakes of others.

“SP”: – Kiev, nevertheless, did not, as we see, draw conclusions from the lessons of Tbilisi. Why are they sure they can do it?

– The fact is that one of the key points of the American strategy in the post-Soviet space was the strategy of the systematic replacement of the elites of the former Soviet republics with elites, let’s say, loyal to the West and America, first of all. Therefore, naturally, no one asks so intently the Ukrainian people, Ukrainian experts etc.

The first persons take full responsibility for making decisions. And they, in general, are pursuing a certain policy, which naturally led to the fact that Ukraine lost its sovereignty.

Which is definitely sad. Because, I repeat, these are our neighbors and we cannot get away from each other.

But we should certainly think about what it means to have a state at our side, which is completely controlled from the outside in all key military-strategic aspects. For them, this is the very contradiction between the elite and the people, whose interests may be completely different. In my opinion, what the Ukrainian leadership is currently doing is absolutely inconsistent with either the aspirations or the truly serious strategic objectives of the Ukrainian people.

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