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Jul 27, 2020
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Mishustin over-the-counter

It is very interesting to look at the situation in the country. Even the oligarchs of the 90s, who can hardly be suspected of love for the people, are beginning to make plans for a new "social contract". There is nothing to say about the rest, it is enough to read conversations about the events in Khabarovsk and their different interpretations. Prime Minister Mishustin is making a very interesting speech in the Duma, which shows that he is going to tightly take the situation (read - financial flows) under control.

The reasons for this activity are simple - the level of tension in the country and the world is growing all the time. The attacks on our country (with the demand to remove Putin) are intensifying, and the situation in the economy is getting worse. There is a month and a half left, then serious showdowns will begin, both from the side of society (and here Khabarovsk will seem like flowers), and from the side of the elite, which does not want any trouble in the West with its honestly stolen billions, but at the same time understands that keeping the old model in Russia will not work either. And if there is no Russia (or they will have problems in Russia), then they will not be able to save money.

No, of course, we can assume that nothing will happen in the fall and everything will be settled, but there are still not so many naive people in power. Simply because the already falling economy and dwindling incomes of citizens caused an increase in irritation, and the story of the coronavirus and a sharp drop in the economy only made things worse. But the question is: what to do?

Mishustin's recipes can bring to the surface some of the hidden financial flows (and mainly from poor people), which will inevitably reduce the already small scale of small and medium-sized businesses. I translate into Russian: this means that the state will have to feed these people and their families, one way or another. Why, then, does Mishustin do this? But because he sees hidden financial flows and wants to make them transparent to the budget. But here are the flows ...

Basically, money is concentrated in two directions.

The first is the work of "socially close", that is, liberals. A typical example is the Serebrennikov case. Is Mishustin ready to plant the conventional "Serebrennikovs" and the completely unconditional Chubais? If not, then he will receive very little money from this situation, but the social expenses of the budget will grow. Since small and medium-sized businesses will simply be closed, it will be simply impossible for SMEs to withstand full payment in accordance with the liberal Tax Code and Mishusta administration.

And the second direction is large companies, and often they do this through the withdrawal of income from the country. And this conclusion is encouraged by the (current) government, that is, by the same Mishustin. In any case, the "anti-crisis plan" says that currency control is being liberalized. So, on specific slides of Mishustin's presentation to the State Duma, everything may look quite beautiful, but in reality the focus will not work. Well, just nothing. Another thing is that Mishustin is not an economist, he is a tax technocrat, his job is to work with financial flows, but he absolutely does not know where they come from. To do this, you need to be an economist, but today there are practically no economists in the government.

Theoretically, such is Belousov, but he occupies a post where all the time he spends on signing papers and meetings, and accountants and / or "effective managers" participate in these meetings and write pieces of paper ... Who, in principle, do not understand how and where these very financial flows (not to mention added value) are taken! To understand this, we need specialists from planning departments, heads of companies in the real sector, after all, people who have implemented at least one development program. And where are they in the government?

Such specialists should be concentrated in the Ministry of Economy. In my time (that is, in the 90s) they existed, and then the ministry included sectoral departments, in which there were people who knew perfectly well what sectoral development programs were and where the profits in their sectors came from. Today? The Ministry of Industry, where there are separate sectoral departments, is headed by “effective managers” who know how to take financial flows out of the enterprise, but absolutely do not understand where the added value comes from. By the way, if only to withdraw without investing, then it will not be formed, which we have in practice. And the Ministry of Economy (cynically renamed the "Ministry of Economic Development") is headed by former accountants from the Ministry of Finance. Who only know how to write instructions on how to withdraw money from budget payments.

Someone might say that this is me overdoing it. But let's remember the doctors who fought and are fighting against the coronavirus. Many of them still cannot receive the promised payments (which, I note, are presented in full in the budget). But the problems with liquidity in terms of the sale of all sorts of mansions on all sorts of "rubles" stopped instantly with the beginning of the epidemic. Do you think the "big" Ministry of Finance and regional finance ministries are not at all involved in this? Well, just really, really? That is, they did not write instructions on how to use this money so that it would be easy to withdraw it to “their own”, but to pay for the intended purpose would be difficult or even completely impossible. It just happened by chance ... And in all regions the same, nowhere did doctors accidentally receive money ... Surprising, right?

But back to the basic question. One can be extremely dubious about the oligarch and the “family” in general, but the question is posed correctly. We need a new social contract, which would imply the complete destruction of the current system of economic and financial management (budget in particular). Because even with the best wishes of the actors (and I am inclined to believe that Mishustin will not deceive Putin in the current situation) the maximum they can do is to slow down the recession a little. Because modern officials do not understand what growth is at all.

In order for growth to work (and without it nothing will work out at all, the only question is whether the mass demonstrations will begin tomorrow or the day after tomorrow), an economic headquarters is needed. Strategic decisions of which must be made by the government instantly, their failure to comply should be the reason for the immediate dismissal of the relevant officials. Regardless of faces. And this headquarters should consist of people who understand what development and added value are, who managed real enterprises (but not in the position of an "effective manager") or implemented specific programs. That is, from the current composition of the government, only Belousov can enter it. Yes, and, I forgot, not a single official of the Ministry of Finance should be in this headquarters, in no case. They shouldn't even go there.

Actually, if Putin wants to move to economic growth, then just the creation of such a headquarters (only a headquarters that will write a work plan for itself and will strictly implement it, and not a formless commission or council) and its composition will be proof of a desire to do something. Any instructions to the government and the Central Bank today are a profanation, they clearly showed both Putin and us (thanks to the same Putin, who demonstrated them to us in his work) that they do not want to work and will not work. More precisely, their job is to withdraw capital, to buy mansions in rubles, and to maintain the global dollar system.

And the less time until mid-September, the more difficult it will be for such a headquarters. Well, by October, most likely, there will be no sense, since the 2020-21 season will be lost ... And then emergency anti-crisis measures will already begin, including the use of "commissars in dusty helmets", with all the ensuing consequences.

Mikhail Khazin



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