According to Rosstat data, in August this year, inflation in annual terms accelerated to 3.6%. As expected in the Ministry of Finance, by the end of next year its growth will reach 3.7%, and in the next two years the same indicator will be at the level of 4%.
“No significant inflationary risks are visible on the forecast horizon, consumer prices at the end of 2020 [вырастут] by 3.8% yoy. Then we expect inflation to be close to the target level of the Bank of Russia, "RIA Novosti quotes its source in the Ministry of Economic Development on Monday, September 14.
The average annual dollar exchange rate, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, will also show growth and will amount to 71.2 rubles instead of the previously predicted level of 69.8 rubles. Next year, the average annual dollar rate, according to the updated forecast of the Ministry of Economics, will reach 72.4 rubles and will continue to grow in the next two years - to 73.1 rubles and 73.8 rubles, respectively.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade has improved the forecast for the average price of Urals oil for the next three years. Thus, the ministry expects that this year its average price will be $ 41.8 per barrel compared to the previous estimate of $ 39.9. In 2021, the cost of this brand of oil will rise to $ 45.3 and will continue to grow in 2022 and 2023 - $ 46.6 and $ 47.5.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economic Development kept the forecast for unemployment in the Russian Federation in 2020 - at the level of 5.7%. According to the agency's expectations, in the next three years, the share of non-working citizens in the country will gradually decrease - to 5.2% in 2021, as well as to 4.7% in 2022 and to 4.6% in 2023.
At the same time, according to the department's forecast, disposable incomes of the population will fall by 3% in 2020, but this decline will be compensated for next year, and then this indicator will start to grow in 2022 and 2023 - by 2.4% and 2 , 5% respectively.
Against the background of this dynamics, the real wages of Russians will show growth by 1.5% in 2020. In the next three years, they will also grow: by 2.2% in 2021–2022 and by 2.5% in 2023.
Also in 2020, the Ministry of Economic Development expects a decrease in industrial production in Russia by 4.1% and its growth by 2.6% in 2021. Against this background, the decline in the country's GDP will begin to slow down in 2020 to 3.9% from 4.8%, and it will reach pre-crisis values in the third quarter of 2021, writes TASS.
At the end of July, according to the Central Bank, the annual inflation in 2020 was about 3.3%. At the end of the year, taking into account the ongoing monetary policy, the Central Bank expects an inflation rate of around 4%. At the same time, the Bank of Russia has adjusted the forecast for the fall in the RF GDP in 2020 to 4.5–5.5% from the previous 4–6%.
According to forecasts of the head of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina, it will take about a year and a half to restore economic activity in the country. According to the Central Bank, Russian exports are expected to fall by 13-15% in 2020 due to a decrease in external demand.