Jan 29, 2021
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Lukashenka barely retained power in Minsk, now gives advice to Russia

In the photo: President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko

In the photo: President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko (Photo: Nikolai Petrov / BelTA / TASS)

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko compared protest actions in Belarus and Russia.

“In August we decided to carry out a blitzkrieg. Immediately overthrow the government or show that the government has fallen, and bring in NATO troops here, ”he said during a meeting on improving legislation.

The main difference between the Belarusian and Russian events, in his opinion, is the fact that in Russia “they will pump for a long time.” Before the elections to the State Duma, in his opinion, “the first rehearsal” will take place in Russia, and “after the Duma elections it will be even more fashionable.”

“They understand perfectly well that blitzkrieg is impossible. All these investigations of a fugitive but taken back to Russia German protest are just the beginning, ”the Belarusian leader noted.

“I was released to Germany (I wanted to be treated there), and at that time, being unconscious, I made a two-hour film. What people don’t understand? Moreover, I do not say anything about the content and am not going to say anything. I have not investigated any facts. I am simply saying: in order to fight this corruption, you have to be crystal clear yourself. You should not have a single comma, a letter in your biography, so that someone could catch hold of it, ”Lukashenka stressed.

He also expressed the opinion that Belarus was used as a springboard for an outside attack on Russia, recalling that Minsk “as early as the first half of last year caught the direction of action from abroad against” his country and warned Moscow about the danger.

Lukashenko is convinced that the latest events in Russia show that these warnings are coming true.

Earlier Svobodnaya Pressa wrote about the forecast of the leader of the Belarusian opposition Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, according to which protests in Belarus will resume in spring, when it gets warmer and people have a rest.

In addition, our experts believe that a protest wave may begin in Russia. And also – in the spring.

But is there anything in common between these situations? Especially if protest actions, as the authorities of both countries are trying to assure, are organized and coordinated from one center? Maybe then the counteraction to them will be coordinated? To begin with, you probably need to draw the right conclusions from what is happening. In Russia, apparently, they were not made … But in Belarus?

And why does Lukashenka talk about this again? Is he trying to make excuses for the fact that he has not yet been able to calm the situation in his country?

– It is impossible to compare two situations, – I am convinced Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Financial University under the Government of Russia Gevorg Mirzayan… – Yes, in both countries there is a potential for protest, many dissatisfied with the authorities. However, the protests in Russia were inspired by a combination of the West – the so-called “Navalny poisoning.” And the Russian authorities behaved more or less adequately in the process of suppressing it. The protests in Belarus were initiated by Alyaksandr Lukashenka – a boorishly conducted election campaign that ended in rigged elections. And the authorities behaved inadequately during the suppression – in particular, they organized mass beatings of already detained people in the pre-trial detention center. Thus, it only strengthened the protest potential.

“SP”: – According to the president, in August it was decided to carry out a blitzkrieg in Belarus. Instantly overthrow the government or show that the government has fallen, and bring NATO troops here. Seriously? Isn’t it an exaggeration?

– No, this is not an exaggeration, but an outright lie. First, the protesters had no organization, no money, no bright leaders to overthrow Lukashenka. Secondly, even if Batka was overthrown, no one would have brought in NATO troops. On what grounds? The illegitimate “president” chosen on the streets by applause? Otherwise, it will be regarded as an invasion of a country that has a defense agreement with Russia. With all the consequences, shooting and flying out.

“SP”: – According to him, the main difference between the Belarusian and Russian events is that in Russia “they will be pumping for a long time.” Do you agree with this? Was Belarus really used as a springboard for an attack on Russia?

– Yes, Belarus and the post-Soviet countries are seen as a springboard for the color revolution in Russia. By themselves, the European countries of the post-Soviet space are really not very interesting to the Americans – they are needed only as an instrument of pressure on the EU and Russia. However, it is Belarus that will be pumped for a long time. Now a culture of protest is being formed there (thanks, among other things, to Batka’s inadequate internal policy).

“SP”: – Lukashenka believes that Navalny’s investigations are just the beginning. What else to wait?

– Yes, a lot. Here came the “investigation into the murder of Nikita Isaev” – an absolute fake for understanding people, but hamsters will come. There will be updates to “Putin’s Palace”. The Russians will be told that as long as they comply with the coronavirus restrictions, the authorities and officials are fattening. There is a lot of room for imagination

“SP”: – The second wave of protests, both in Belarus and in Russia, is predicted in the spring. Will these predictions come true? Can foreign intervention or purely domestic protest activity be coordinated in two countries?

– Hard to tell. All the same, these are different protests. It seems to me that the Russian protest will swing for several years – until 2024. As for spring, it is easier to hold a meeting in spring. And (due to less clothing) it is easier to get injured.

“SP”: – Is it possible to compare the conclusions made by the authorities of both countries? Are they the same? Are they correct or not? Will Moscow and Minsk coordinate actions to counter the protests?

– I hope they won’t. Old Man really wants us to help him suppress the Belarusian protest, which arose because of the tyranny of Alexander Lukashenko. And this is despite the fact that Lukashenka is not an ally of Russia, but a pure opportunist. Instead of recklessly supporting him, you need to give him security guarantees and build pro-Russian political forces in Belarus

“Lukashenka’s opportunities for a multi-vector foreign policy have diminished since the summer,” believes political scientist Andrey Milyuk… “Therefore, Old Man sends signals to the Russian authorities:“ Ours, lads, ours. Nya stralyeitse! “

For several months now, rumors have been circulating that the Kremlin plans to create a pro-Russian opposition party to Lukashenko in Belarus. At the latest protests, Lukashenko, with difficulty and not without the help of Russia, remained in power. It was felt that there was not enough support from the street. Or at least a third force to prevent the transfer of power to Western-oriented politicians in the event of Lukashenka’s defeat.

Naturally, such a party is a threat to Lukashenka. If a new political force loyal to Russia appeared in the country, the question would immediately arise: is it really necessary for the Kremlin, isn’t it time to replace the president, who is tired of everyone? Hence these passages about the common destiny of the two regimes.

“SP”: And yet, how real is everything he says?

– There is some truth in this. Belarus is interesting to the West because it is the last country between Russia and Europe, not included in the so-called. “Cordon sanitaire” of countries with Russophobic regimes at the head. Between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region is the so-called. The Suwalki Corridor is a constant headache for the NATO military. Whichever way you look at it, Belarus really turns out to be a potential springboard for an attack on Russia.

But it is not NATO military men who take to the streets of cities of both countries, but citizens dissatisfied with the policy of the authorities. Therefore, Lukashenka’s words should be treated critically, as well as Putin’s words that all protests are being led from abroad. Maybe they do, but why do you create conditions when citizens have to choose from bad and even worse?

Thousands of people cannot take to the streets on command at any time. Domestic conditions must arise for protests. For Russia and Belarus, these conditions are different, so there will be no strictly coordinated performances in both countries. But this is obvious, something else is more important: even now, they talk about the rally “waves” as something obvious. They argue only about particulars.

Everyone understands that this year there will be no progressive growth of protest, the wrong level of discontent. This is what it means to “swing for a long time.” But here the Old Man openly “breeds” the Kremlin.

The change of power through street performances always happens decisively and quickly. Until the top officials understand what is happening, the law enforcement officers are disorganized, and some representatives of the authorities fraternize with the protesters, the opposition seizes the authorities – before you have time to look back, you are in Rostov, writing down an appeal to the nation.

As soon as the protest drags on, it immediately becomes clear that the resources of even an extremely weakened state are incomparable with those of the opposition. The official government is exhausting the protesters and, step by step, is taking control of the country back. This is exactly what happened with Lukashenka. Another question is whether he will survive as a politician the next protests in Belarus?

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