Ukraine will have to fight Russia without the support of Washington, relying only on its own forces, – said the former US ambassador to Kiev John Herbst… And she will not see NATO membership for another ten years. Is Kiev ready to get involved in a military campaign on such conditions?
A senior diplomat confirmed that the United States is ready to supply weapons to Ukraine. Well, they will give moral support. They will be in thought shoulder to shoulder with Kiev. They will send rays of goodness. But that’s all. Neither the White House nor the Pentagon want to bring coffins from across the ocean, as well as to get involved in another story with refugees. Of course, a small victorious war would benefit the country’s image, but Russia is not an adversary that can be defeated with one left. And on the nose – elections.
But the question arises: does the threat of war with Russia, about which they talk so much in the independent, really exists, or is it a phantom, like a monster in the closet, which is convenient to frighten the world community when they do not want to give money to Kiev? Failed Zelensky during a visit to Washington to persuade the Americans to take on the maintenance of an entire country – here’s a new portion of horror stories about the dangers that threaten Ukraine from Russia: shell out and help.
Unfortunately, the threat of war between Ukraine and Russia is a reality, experts say. Moreover, it will be undeclared and can only be started with the filing of the Ukrainian side.
Expert Andrey Suzdaltsev reminds that Kiev’s actions could have led to war last spring. Around the beginning of March, scandalous publications appeared in the Ukrainian media about the fact that Ukraine has enough strength and capabilities to liquidate the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. Then scenarios were published on how this would happen, and already in April, Ukrainian troops appeared on the demarcation line, transferred from all over the square. When Russia took retaliatory measures, raising and pulling up troops to the border with Ukraine, Kiev began to complain to the whole world about how poor and unhappy Ukraine is, because now it will be beaten …
– This is provocativeness in the spirit of a child’s fight in a sandbox: try to hit me, I will call my older brother right away, he will hit you, says Andrey Suzdaltsev. – And provocations from Ukraine can lead to grave consequences. For example, they can go on a sabotage, because of which our people will die. Let me remind you that on the territory of Russia, groups of SBU saboteurs were repeatedly intercepted, trying to take Russian citizens to Ukraine.
Unfortunately, Kiev has long lost its shores and does not distinguish between “red lines”. This is also taken into account in Washington. And they are afraid of this.
The expert draws attention to the fact that the situation since 2008, when the Americans openly incited Saakashvili to Russia, has fundamentally changed. Then the United States tried to take advantage of the change of power in the Russian Federation. They were ninety percent sure that once Medvedev the president is young, inexperienced, and the Russian army is in a difficult situation, then Russia will cede South Ossetia quite easily. For a couple of days Georgia will occupy it – that’s all. And when the plan failed, the United States declared that they had nothing to do with it, and left its satellite to sort out the consequences on its own:
– The Americans are at least honest with Ukraine. They immediately warn: if you start a war with Russia, we will not fight for you. We will provide weapons, but the American soldier will not fight on the territory of Ukraine with Russia, – Andrey Suzdaltsev notes.
Nevertheless, the fact that the United States refuses in advance to participate in the military adventures of Kiev does not indicate a decrease in their interest in Ukraine. And this is what Kiev fears the most. The reason is that US policy is now changing. They have to reconsider relations with China and deal with the consequences of the withdrawal of their contingent from Afghanistan. So Ukraine now has to be responsible for its own destiny.
Military expert Konstantin Sivkov also believes that the war between Ukraine and Russia is quite real. But, in his opinion, it will begin without an announcement and will be the beginning of the end of the pro-American government in Kiev:
– Ukraine can act like this: it will begin the escalation of the ATO in the DPR and LPR, then the massacre of civilians will begin, Russia will be forced to defend civilians, as in 2008 in the case of the aggression from Georgia. It should be borne in mind that combat operations in the classical form will have an exclusively local character. Units of the Ukrainian army, with rare exceptions, will most likely begin to go over to the side of Russia, and this military campaign will turn into a war of the combined Russian and Ukrainian armed forces to liberate Ukraine from bandits, murderers, rapists, thieves and other elements that have formed the so-called “political elite “.
“SP”: – What gives reason to assume that the Ukrainian army will not fight against Russia?
– This is shown by the history of the conflict. In the course of 2014-2015, if the Ukrainian army fought in united ranks against the LPR and DPR, it would simply sweep them away. But this did not happen, because in reality it was mainly militants, zealous nationalists, who fought. Now the mentality could have changed after the purges in the army, but the older brother, the United States, was “blown away” by it. Things are not going well there now. After all, Kiev tried to start a war in May of this year, but it did not take place due to the internal problems of the States, and Ukraine will not commit suicide without direct military support, ” Konstantin Sivkov is convinced.
NATO is also not going to get into someone else’s fight. It is one thing to conduct large-scale exercises on the border with Russia, and quite another to conduct military operations. Moreover, endanger their own population and territories.
Yes, and in Ukraine, not everyone rushes with the idea of joining the North Atlantic Union, as with a written sack. According to the latest data, mainly residents of the western regions rely on an alliance with NATO. In Lviv 81% of citizens are in favor, in Ternopil – 79% and in Ivano-Frankivsk – 78%.
And in the east and south of the country the picture is completely different: in Kharkiv, only 33% of respondents spoke in favor of joining NATO, in Odessa there were even fewer “hotheads” – 28%, and in Mariupol, the center of the “Ukrainian” part of Donbass, there were only 17 of them. %.