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Sep 15, 2022
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Kyiv goes for broke

The Kharkov offensive, during which Kyiv achieved the greatest success during the entire war, was in itself quite risky for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But having achieved this success in Kyiv, they are not going to stop and are preparing to continue.

They are going to continue in Kyiv in several directions at once – in Limansky, Lisichansky, Donetsk (Peski), in the area of ​​​​Ugledar, the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and even in Kherson, where they have already lost a couple of brigades.

In Kyiv, they are taking a big risk. In fact, they go for broke.

In the Kharkov direction, Kyiv achieved success, sending to the offensive almost all the forces that had been accumulated in recent months. From 4 to 10 brigades trained in NATO countries. A huge amount of military equipment supplied by Western sponsors. And of course, units of mercenaries and American PMCs.

If the Russian troops were able to stop the Kharkov offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and even more so to catch the enemy in a huge cauldron, everything could have ended in defeat and military defeat for Kyiv. But the Russian troops were not strong enough. There weren’t enough reserves. The defense was not properly prepared. As a result, Kyiv achieved the greatest success during the entire war, returning under its control about 4 thousand square kilometers of territory and many settlements, including the cities of Izyum and Balakleya.

Kyiv has not had such success yet. Perhaps even in Kyiv itself they did not expect the offensive to be so successful. They hoped to probably take Balakleya, Kupyansk, and then surround Izyum and fight for it for a long time. But it turned out that they took Raisins in just a couple of days. And along with it, many small villages.

For Kyiv, this is already a grandiose success. Especially against the background of previous failures and defeats. First of all, success in psychological terms.

Ukrainian society and troops once again believe in their strength and the ability to win the war. The protracted military depression that arose against the background of long-term failures – in Mariupol, Severodonetsk, in the direction of Kherson – was replaced by military euphoria and noticeably turned the heads of all patriots of Ukraine. And with them the military and political leadership.

And against the backdrop of euphoria from such a successful offensive in the Kharkiv region, one might even say courage, Kyiv plans to achieve the same success in all other areas – in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, as well as in the Donbass.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are attacking Krasny Lyman and are preparing new offensives in several directions at once – on Lisichansk, Peski, in the area of ​​​​Vogledar, on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and on Kherson. Ukrainian troops and equipment are being concentrated in all of these areas, and reserves are being brought up.

Kyiv wants to develop the success of the Kharkov offensive and turn it into the success of the entire war, achieve a radical and final turning point, put Russian troops to flight and reach the borders on February 22. And then to the borders of 2013.

The Ukrainian public is already discussing an imminent attack on Donetsk and Lugansk. And the ultimate goal is to defeat Russia. These victorious moods of Ukrainian society are also supported by Western politicians, who until recently were very skeptical about the prospects for war, but after the Kharkov success they noticeably cheered up.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken (formerly Blinkin) said that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is just beginning. He stated this already after the APU took control of Izyum. And just before the start of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkov direction, Anthony Blinken visited Kyiv. Obviously not just like that.

Under these conditions, Kyiv simply cannot stop and is forced to throw troops into new offensives in order to develop success. Military euphoria in society and the army, social demand for further gains, as well as pressure from the West, which has invested huge funds in Ukraine and now hopes to get a result, especially since it has already seen in the Kharkov direction that the result is achievable – all this is forcing Kyiv continue active offensive operations.

Kyiv cannot rest on its laurels – neither the military, nor patriotic citizens, nor Western partners will understand it.

Although, logically, it would be right for Kyiv to stop right now. Because during the Kharkiv offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses, almost the same as in the Kherson direction. Against the backdrop of the successes achieved and under the influence of military euphoria, no one pays much attention to these losses, but they are great.

Kyiv has spent a significant part of its reserves, lost a lot of equipment, and advancing on Donetsk and Lugansk is not the same as advancing on Balakliya and Izyum. There, the Russian troops and the people’s militia of the republics have completely different forces and a completely different motivation for defense. No one will retreat without a fight.

There is another difficulty to attack Energodar and the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant – this is the Dnieper. Crossing the Dnieper under air and artillery attacks is certain death. In the Dnieper, you can drown a couple of brigades at once at just one crossing. And even a couple of cases. Attempts to ferry troops during the IAEA visit have already shown this.

They have already tried to attack Kherson and it is unlikely that an attempt to repeat it will be much more successful. And in the Ugledar area, the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is also waiting and preparing, so there will be no easy walk.

If you look at the situation in Kyiv and the prospects of Ukraine pragmatically, abstracting from the ideas of Ukrainianism, Russophobia and Western interests, it would be right now, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine control almost the entire Kharkiv region, to stop the war and negotiate with Russia. Recognize the Russian Crimea, the republics of Donbass, give the Kherson region and part of the Zaporozhye region in order to retain the Kharkov region.

Because more than Kyiv has returned under its control, it will no longer be able to return. Even if it advances a few more kilometers near Ugledar, in the Kherson region and somewhere else, this will be a purely temporary success. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose all their reserves in new offensives and after that they will be forced to retreat again, waiting for the next help from American PMCs and vacationers. But if they come to the rescue again, the war will turn into a full-fledged clash between Russia and NATO on the territory of Ukraine, which again does not promise anything good for Kyiv.

In trying to build up the offensive, Kyiv risks squandering all its reserves and ultimately suffering a military defeat, the threat of which it seemed to avert in the course of such a successful Kharkov offensive.

Therefore, the best solution for Kyiv would be to stop. And for the West, in fact, too, because the bullish game between the United States and Russia has every prospect of leading the world to nuclear war.

But Washington continues the game for now, believing after the successful offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkov direction in the possibility of defeating Russia. And Kyiv, which is driven into battle by Western sponsors and its own society, which is in a state of military euphoria, and along with its own ambitions, cannot stop either. Kyiv found itself in a situation where, logically, it would be necessary to stop, but it is impossible. They won’t understand. Yes, and we don’t want to when it’s “flooded” like that. Kyiv itself found itself in a state of military euphoria, caught courage, felt the sweet taste of victory, and therefore firmly intends to continue.

Victories intoxicate, dizzy and the soul demands the continuation of the banquet. Moreover, it is September in the yard, the autumn thaw will soon begin, the brilliant green will disappear. Therefore, we must attack now. Now or never.

Kyiv understands that there may not be a better opportunity for an offensive. Who knows what will happen next, when the most difficult winter of modern times begins in Europe with a shortage of gas, exorbitant prices for electricity and everything else. And what will happen in the United States when the Republicans win the Congressional elections is also a big question. And what will happen in Ukraine itself by spring is again unknown.

Kyiv lives with the feeling that this is a historic opportunity to defeat Russia – a great historic victory that Ukrainian nationalists have dreamed of for a long hundred years. Will there ever be such an opportunity again?

Ukrainian society is on the rise, in a state of military euphoria. Military on the run. Western partners are waiting for results and seem to be ready to help again, Washington certainly sent PMCs and “vacationers” to organize the Kharkov offensive for a reason.

So it’s now or never. Of course, Kyiv will continue. He just can’t stop.

Considerations of logic and common sense are no longer taken into account. Kyiv has no choice but to continue its offensive and throw all its reserves into battle.

If Kyiv does not do this, they will not understand and forgive him.

Kyiv is forced to go for broke. But playing all-in, you can not only win big, but also lose big. And you can lose not just big – you can lose everything.

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