Oct 28, 2021
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Kiev’s statements on the gas problem require clarification from a psychiatrist

Kiev's statements on the gas problem require clarification from a psychiatrist

Photo: Vitaly Grabar / TASS

In Ukraine, judging by the latest news, there is a real panic over the gas situation. Most of all Kiev is afraid of Russia’s refusal from the Ukrainian transit or its serious decline. After all, these are tangible losses for the budget, which is already bursting at the seams, and the inability to take gas for itself through a virtual reverse, which threatens social tension, and the likelihood of the destruction of the gas transmission network, for the repair and restoration of which there is no money. So the Ukrainian high-ranking officials of the European partners and Russia are “bombing” with proposals for the immediate conclusion of a new transit contract, for “generous” discounts, on the creation of a consortium for the management of the GTS, and so on.

Naturally, Kiev constantly tells the world community about the unreliability of Russia, market manipulation and so on. But in the Independence Square they intend to firmly resist any attempts by Russia to deprive it of gas benefits. Head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Dmitry Kuleba promised to answer if Moscow stops gas supplies.

“If the Kremlin decides to do this and destroy the remnants of its reputation as an energy supplier to Europe, we have a number of asymmetric steps in response,” he answered when asked about the possibility of stopping supplies and transit.

At the same time, the diplomat admitted that gas supplies have not yet been cut off. It should be noted that Russia has not been supplying gas to this country since the end of 2015, it only transits to Europe, from where Ukraine draws Russian gas. The European partners constantly emphasize that Gazprom fulfills all contractual obligations. However, fear, as you know, has big eyes, and Kiev escalates the situation.

According to the Ukrainian political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky, the situation in Ukraine is deteriorating in anticipation of troubles associated with the crisis, coal shortages, almost inevitable power outages, and heating problems. Kiev is trying to “strain friends in the West” so that they can help.

– It is in the interests of the Ukrainian authorities to do something now so that Europe says that Russia is the aggressor and that it is necessary to take pity on Ukraine, to close Nord Stream 2. This is all from a desperately difficult situation, from which the authorities are trying to get out, for example, by provocations. A representative of the JCCC was arrested, and the shelling of Donbass was intensified.

“SP”: – Are Kiev’s threats real or virtual, and what kind of asymmetric measures is it ready to take?

– Different asymmetric measures are possible, treating this as just chatter is wrong. This is not just an idiot who says that we will send missiles to Moscow – this is stupidity and not real, this is a delusional statement (I mean (Alexei – ed.) Arestovich).

There are people who are not idiots, who are strongly anti-Russian motivated and are ready to use the available tools to create problems. For example, to purge all “enemies”, the authorities cannot do anything if the nationalists take up terror against all people who do not consider them patriots. Do not take it lightly, it can be serious.

“SP”: – Can you talk about the panic of the authorities in Kiev?

– To some extent, you can. There are different people in Kiev: there is personnel rotation, there is settling of scores. There is a whole bunch of interests. Those who are responsible should panic. These are, first of all, the president, prime minister, and some others.

Ukrainian public and political figure, People’s Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine of the V, VI and VII convocations Spiridon Kilinkarov He spoke very critically about the statement of Kuleba, which, in his opinion, does not correspond to the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs.

– A person does not understand his functionality at all. How is it possible for Kuleba to negotiate with the Russian Federation after his statements about Putin?
There was a negotiation process on gas, after the Normandy meeting a five-year contract on transit was signed. Has the Ukrainian side signed it? – Yes. So she agreed to the agreed terms. Today she says she wants a long-term contract. So the contract is valid until 2024.

They are trying, on the one hand, to block Nord Stream 2, and on the other, to somehow negotiate with Russia and involve Germany in this. In Nord Stream 2, it is not so much the interest of Russia as of Germany. How? If you think that Germany is your ally, then by creating problems for him, you will hardly be of particular interest to her, since you are blocking the German project. I don’t know how they basically want to solve this problem.

All talk about Americans saving everyone turned out to be fiction even for Europe. Europe proceeds from its geopolitical interests. Where are Ukrainian interests? On the one hand, we tell the Europeans “do not buy Russian gas,” and on the other, we demand to increase its transit through the Ukrainian gas transportation system. I do not know how to explain this, I am not a professional psychiatrist.

Contradictory actions are taking place: one thesis in the speech of the Minister of Foreign Affairs contradicts another, and all this happens within a minute. There is no explanation for this. I do not see a sequence of actions that could lead to a positive result, because there is none.

“SP”: – What kind of measures does Kuleba mean?

– I don’t know what steps we are talking about, but suppose they will. Do you think the other side has asymmetric steps if they take asymmetric steps? Probably, after all, Russia has more levers of influence on the Ukrainian economy. Ukraine is more dependent on Russia than Russia is on Ukraine, at least in the economic sphere.

Of course, you can take some inadequate measures, but there will be an answer to them. And where are we going?

If, without violating the contract, Russia reduces the volume of gas transit through Ukraine or stops altogether, taking into account the monetary compensation provided for by the contract, what will happen in Ukraine? It will not be able to distribute gas across its territory even from its storage facilities, because there will be no pressure to transport it from one point to another.

You need to think about your decisions, but says it is not known that on the go, not understanding the consequences of what you are voicing.

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