This is simply surprising: in the conditions of the catastrophic development of the situation in Kazakhstan, Russia and its closest allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) are acting in an unusually decisive, tough and swift manner in front of the whole world.
This was not the case during the mass protests in Belarus in the summer of 2020 – in the spring of 2021. We saw nothing of the kind during the so-called second war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh (in the fall of 2020). She also held the position of an outside observer of the CSTO in April-May 2021 during armed clashes on the Tajik-Kyrgyz border. All this has long given rise to well-grounded doubts: why do we need this very CSTO, which does not want to interfere in anything? Even when shots are thundering on the streets of the allies and the blood of civilians is shedding?
Today, everything is exactly the opposite. Judge for yourself: only in the late evening of January 5, the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev turned to the CSTO partners for help. According to RIA Novosti, he officially stated: “Relying on the collective security treaty, today I turned to the heads of the CSTO states to help Kazakhstan overcome this terrorist threat.” And further: “In fact, this is no longer a threat, it is an undermining of the integrity of the state and, most importantly, it is an attack on our citizens, who ask me, as the head of state, to urgently provide them with assistance.”
Literally a few hours later, on the night of November 5-6, an emergency meeting of the CSTO Collective Security Council took place, the main topic of which, as far as one can judge, was the bloody pogroms in Almaty. And already at dawn, military transport aircraft with Russian units of the Airborne Forces rushed into the skies of Kazakhstan to take under protection “important state and military facilities, to assist the law enforcement forces of the Republic of Kazakhstan in stabilizing the situation and returning it to the legal field.”
Are you able to recall at least something similar on the part of the CSTO since the collapse of the Soviet Union? I – definitely not. But if this does happen, then everything was ready in advance. That is, our Aerospace Forces knew in advance: on which airfields and in what quantities they should concentrate military transport aviation. The Airborne Forces had clear instructions from the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff about which regiments and divisions to raise on alert. Even the necessary cargo, ammunition, fuel and food must not have been packed and stored yesterday.
Logically, in addition to the presence of political will, such a development of events required one more indispensable condition: Moscow should have known in advance about everything that was being prepared in Kazakhstan in recent weeks and months. And she, of course, knew all about it.
There is only one detail that is most important for understanding the emerging situation: apparently, the events there are viewed by the political and military leadership of Russia today not as a fire that flares up only in this separate former Soviet republic. No, the shooting and pogroms in Kazakhstan from the Kremlin are probably seen only as the forerunner of a thunderstorm, which is inevitably approaching all of us from the side of Central Asia as a whole. Mainly from Afghanistan.
That is – Kazakhstan and Afghanistan, it seems, is known from where they set fire to a common match. The goal is also common – Russia. Accordingly, the Kremlin prepares defensive responses in advance. And he is ready to fight for Kazakhstan, as he once did for the Dubosekovo patrol near Moscow in 1941.
In this regard, it is very interesting to leaf through informational messages of a military-political nature that began to come from this strategic direction approximately since last autumn. Here, for example, is this: in mid-November 2021, the Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolay Patrushev warned that if the new authorities in Kabul fail to normalize the situation, a catastrophic scenario is possible in Afghanistan. The development of this catastrophic scenario in Afghanistan includes a new round of civil war, general impoverishment of the population and hunger.
And just yesterday, January 5, 2022, the realism and timeliness of Patrushev’s disastrous forecast received convincing confirmation. Not from anywhere – from the UN headquarters. On Wednesday, a message came from there, which said: the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan has worsened due to the onset of the cold season and severe frosts. In the country, millions of people suffer from cold and lack of food. Part of the country’s districts was cut off from external aid due to heavy snowfalls. The humanitarian disaster is getting worse every day, people do not have enough food and fuel to heat their homes.
Someone will say: well, let it be … What about what is happening in this eternally at war country, with which Russia does not have a single meter of a common border? But, according to the logic of Patrushev, we are about to talk about millions of crowds fleeing from Afghanistan, in which it will not be possible to distinguish ordinary refugees from specially trained and trained militants. No one will be able to keep them outside the borders of the former USSR.
And if specifically about the militants in Afghanistan, let’s listen to at least a well-known Tajik political scientist, researcher at the Institute for Sociological Research in Paris. Parviza Mullojanova. According to him, in the north of Afghanistan today there are about 7-8 thousand militants who arrived in this country from other states. First of all – from Iraq and Syria. Thus, the political scientist is sure, the structures of the “caliphate” that were defeated in the Middle East are gradually being transferred here.
Near the borders with the former USSR, the so-called “Haqqani network” (a terrorist organization banned in a number of countries – “SP”) began to create training camps and madrassas, which in alliance with the Taliban * waged a guerrilla struggle against government forces, as well as against troops USA and other NATO countries. Even earlier, in the 80s, the same organization founded by the extremist religious leader Mawlavi Jalaluddin Haqqani, fought with Soviet troops.
The notorious Al-Qaeda **, which quickly found a common language with the Taliban that came to undivided rule in this country, founded three of its own bases for the combat and ideological training of new bandit formations near Kabul.
“If we sum up all these three factors, then the main difficulty is that Afghanistan will potentially soon turn into what the“ caliphate ”in Syria or Iraq was,” sums up Mullojanov, which is disappointing for us.
And as for the absence of a common border between Afghanistan and Russia … Yes, between us and the Afghans lie still Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, which was set on fire today, and just a few months ago, which seemed to be a stronghold of political stability. Just now – the seemingly most reliable “safety cushion” of Russia, with 7.5 thousand kilometers of the common land border fencing us off from Central Asia, from which you no longer know what to expect. Now this barrier between Russia and Afghanistan is virtually gone. It melted in the smoke of the fires of Alma-Ata, Aktobe, Atyrau, Pavlodar and other cities and villages of Kazakhstan engulfed in riots.
Perhaps our common salvation lies in the fact that our military was clearly preparing for such a turn of events in advance. Look: a record number of live-fire exercises were held in 2021 at our main stronghold in Central Asia, the 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan – more than 300. In other words, for some reason Moscow was ordered: “Do not spare cartridges!”
For a whole year, the cannonade thundered there almost every day. Moreover, the tactical background of these exercises turned out to be very characteristic – actions to repel the attacks of conditional bandit groups on military camps in Dushanbe and Bokhtar, defense at the Lyaur and Sambuli ranges, repelling the seizures of ammunition depots and military equipment parks.
Another detail illustrating the seriousness of the threat to Russia and its allies from the strategic direction, in which Kazakhstan is only a small milestone. On December 7, on the Russian portal of legal information, that is, literally a month before the current events, a message appeared that Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan had created a kind of special closed joint communication system between their armies. As written in the document – to exchange information and coordinate their interaction.
The agreement provides for constant combat duty at the command posts of the participating countries. It, of course, rushes around the clock. And this is definitely another clue to the promptness with which the CSTO troops have just decisively and without any doubt entered Kazakhstan.
And at this time
Armed clashes between the militants of the Taliban that seized power in Afghanistan and the Turkmen border guards took place on the border of the two states. This was reported on Monday in its electronic version of the Afghan newspaper Hasht-e subh.
“Three days ago, officers of the border service of Turkmenistan killed one civilian and beat another. In response to their actions during the investigation of the incident, the Taliban fired shots, ”said the head of the provincial information and culture department. Jaujan Hilal Balkhi…
As specified, the shootout between the Turkmen border guards and the Taliban took place on Monday, January 3, in the Hamab district of the Jowzjan province. Other details of the incident were not reported.
* The Taliban movement was recognized by the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation as a terrorist organization on February 14, 2003, and its activities on the territory of Russia were prohibited.
** Al-Qaeda was recognized as a terrorist organization by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003, its activities on the territory of Russia are prohibited.