Turkey, which had not previously announced its desire to join the armed conflict in Donbass, seems to have changed its point of view. Now Ankara actively supports the position of the official Kiev in relation to the LPR / DPR. All kinds of aid, including financial and even military, are flowing from Turkey to Ukraine. Moreover, Erdogan and the company does not share the Kremlin’s point of view on the current jurisdiction of Crimea and is actively patronizing the current Ukrainian ruling elite on its path to NATO.
Oddly enough, the Vietnamese news agency Soha has been tirelessly talking about this since the beginning of last week.
True, this is done in a very peculiar way.
So, first, the Vietnamese portal spoke about the speech of thanks by the commander-in-chief of the ground forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky to the Turkish Defense Minister Akara for Turkey’s consistent political support for Ukraine, including the recognition of the fact of the alleged annexation of the Crimean peninsula and the provision of material, technical and financial assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as Ukrainian plans to join NATO. “We are interested in Turkey’s fuller support of our strategic roadmap for joining the North Atlantic Alliance.”, – quoted the Syrsky edition, citing some unnamed Ukrainian media as a primary source.
Then the Vietnamese publication said that at least 6 Turkish Bayraktar TB2 reconnaissance drones, delivered there by an unknown method, were concentrated at the Yagorlyk training ground a few kilometers from the border with Crimea. At the same time, with reference to again unnamed experts, it was suggested that this was due to the intention of the Ukrainian armed forces to strike at the Donbas from two different directions, while allowing the likelihood of strikes against the Russian military on the peninsula. The unnamed Ukrainian media also appeared as the primary source of information.
Based on these reports, Soha concludes that such Turkey’s intervention in the conflict in Donbass may end up with the DPR and LPR disintegrating, and Russia being forced to use its own military forces in the region.
A number of questions arise. First, why is the Vietnamese newspaper so interested in the state of affairs in the distant Donbass? Second, is Soha aware of the implications that the publication of such messages could have on the international arena? After all, under the sauce “Turkey will help Ukraine to seize Donbass,” they have already been quoted by some quite official Russian news agencies, albeit not of the first echelon. Thirdly, since there is no smoke without fire, how realistic is the layout outlined by Soha around the DPR and LPR, and what could it result in?
About why it was the Vietnamese agency, and not, say, the “newsmen” of the Republic of Vanuatu, undertook to cover the situation around the DPR and LPR, “SP” has already explained earlier.
However, expert on Middle East conflicts, historian and publicist Stanislav Khatuntsev admitted that in this particular case, Ukraine itself could pay for such a “stuffing”.
“This could have been done to create the appearance that the entire world community cannot wait for Turkey, I apologize for the jargon, to insert the piston to the“ Russian aggressors, ”the expert explained. – Because if this idea sounds exclusively from Ukrainian mouthpieces, then this is one story, but it turns out that not only Southeast Asia, but even pro-Russian Vietnam raises the “voice of truth”, stigmatizing, so to speak, the “slaves of Moscow “.
“SP”: – What is the real state of affairs in the issue of interaction between Ukraine and Turkey regarding Donbass and Crimea?
– In reality, the very agreement on Turkish drones for Ukraine exists in nature. What was put there and where, in fact, how the issue of their service and the possible production of Bayraktar will be resolved directly in Ukraine – this is another conversation, but I believe that some Turkish representatives are already present there. Of course, these are not the personnel of the Turkish armed forces, who are ready to go to the positions of the DPR and LPR, but, by analogy with the recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, they are purely technical specialists, some exclusively management personnel. This is the only thing that can be logically assumed in this situation.
“SP”: – That is, Turkey will not be directly involved in hostilities in the Donbass under any sauce?
– I suppose, if only as maintenance personnel for drones. I am sure that there can be no question of any other military equipment, let alone missile weapons or manpower. Even in the Karabakh conflict, they did not directly side with Azerbaijan, which is close in mentality and culture, but only “loomed behind our backs”. And if this happens in Donbass, then Russia will no longer be able to swallow it and get off with some kind of equivocation, as it was, for example, in the case of our helicopter shot down in Nagorno-Karabakh or after the murder of our ambassador in Ankara.
Although Turkey, I think, will not abandon attempts to weaken Russia in one way or another, here or here. From the very moment of her appearance, she was always interested in weakening Russia and did not give up the hope of returning her to the borders of the Moscow principality. Erdogan’s urges for pan-Turkism and the creation of a “Great Turan” in the territory from the Balkans to the eastern borders of Yakutia are too strong. So, I think, Ankara will continue its attempts to weaken Moscow wherever possible, while in every possible way avoiding direct military clashes, taking advantage of the fact that the Kremlin, despite the periodically arising “points of tension”, is completely inexplicable, in my opinion, demonstrates loyalty to relation to Turkey. Let me remind you that it was only thanks to the intervention of the Russian special services that Erdogan not only survived after an unsuccessful coup attempt, but also retained the highest power in the country, and “thanked” us for this by shooting down aircraft and killing the ambassador.
However, despite this behavior of Turkey, the likelihood of Russia being drawn into a direct military conflict in the territory of Donbass is very high. Professor of Moscow State University, member of the Scientific Council under the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Doctor of Political Science Andrey Manoilo…
“The Western curators of all the armed Ukrainian fraternity,” the expert emphasized, “are making great efforts to incite them for some provocations in the hope that the Russian military contingent will suffer losses, and on the eve of the important parliamentary elections.
As far as I know, the Ukrainian armed forces themselves are also actively discussing options for the resumption of hostilities near the borders of the DPR and LPR, and they intend to repeat the “Karabakh scenario” and make a key stake on drones. Firstly, because the infantry of the Square is absolutely not eager to substitute itself under the bullets of the Donbass people’s militia, which, frankly, will immediately put everyone down, and, secondly, someone, apparently, seriously believes that Russia will bear due to their use, serious losses.
“SP”: – And how can we hypothetically answer if such a provocation still succeeds? We can hardly manage with half measures this time?
– Half measures, firstly, do little in reality, and, secondly, in the end they are always very expensive. So, no matter how difficult the decision may look, it is better, I think, to take it right away than to pay for half-measures for a long time.
Against this background, the entire officer staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is by no means unreasonably panicky that if, as a result of some provocation, something happens to Russian citizens in Donbass, whose number, for a minute, promises to reach almost a million people by the end of 2021, then the Russian military machine will start moving. After all, it is not at all a fact that in this case it will stop at least on the border of western Ukraine, it is much more likely that this will happen already on the border with Poland, while few Ukrainian ultranationalists will be able to escape – even though the planes are flying , trains run, and ships sail.