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Jun 6, 2022
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It’s inevitable: “Square” is waiting for the fate of Yugoslavia

In the photo: Ukrainian armed forces near the western Ukrainian city of Mukachevo, Transcarpathian region

In the photo: Ukrainian armed forces near the western Ukrainian city of Mukachevo, Transcarpathian region (Photo: Petro Zadorozhnyy / AP / TASS)

Vice-President of the League of Military Diplomats, Professor of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Vladimir Vinokurov believes that Ukraine can break up into several parts. “As a result of the special operation, today’s Ukraine may break up into several state or quasi-state entities following the example of Yugoslavia: the South and East of the country will pass to Russia – Western Ukraine, apparently, will be under the protectorate of Poland. Maybe a “third” one will appear – Central Ukraine, the capital of which will remain in Kyiv, ”the professor expressed this point of view to RIA Novosti.

Such assumptions have been made before. But now this version of the development of events has been confirmed. President of Poland Andrzej Duda During a recent visit to Kyiv, he clearly outlined the course towards the integration of Ukraine and Poland. Kyiv, apparently, is so interested in such a rapprochement that it “swallowed” Duda’s statement that the Polish-Ukrainian border would cease to exist.

Warsaw’s interest is understandable: being the backyard of Europe is unpleasant, especially with ambitions to become a powerful European power – the new Commonwealth.

However, Vladimir Vinokurov believes that this may be of some benefit to Ukraine. The Poles did not forget the tragedy of Volhynia, which was perpetrated by Bandera in 1943. And, perhaps, they will be able to demonstratively strangle the free-spirited Natsiks, whom Kyiv does not seem to be able to control. However, one should also ask the other side. Which does not want to have anything to do with the Kyiv regime.

In the foreseeable future, Kyiv will have to finally say goodbye to the South-East, believes Chairman of the Union of Journalists of the DPR Viktor Petrenko.

– The probability of the collapse of Ukraine as a state is very high, we see this on the example of the Kherson region, and the Zaporozhye region is next in line. Again, Nikolaev and Odessa have always been “Russian” territories. And no matter how hard the Kyiv authorities try, the population there sees itself in the future as citizens of Russia. Or at least in cooperation with Russia. The western Galician regions see themselves partly as part of Poland, partly as part of Romania, Romanian passports are not just because people received them. They practically live abroad. Our acquaintances, who were able to be taken out of Volnovakha and Mariupol when hostilities were going on there, ended up on the territory of western Ukraine, returned and convey the mood of those who live there.

So, the residents do not want to obey Kyiv. Many have been working abroad for a long time, they are transporting their families to their place. Yes, practically, they already live in Poland and further – in Germany. So the collapse of Ukraine is practically guaranteed in the event that the conflict is dragged out by the Kyiv regime.

But how Europe itself is ready for the division of countries that are rather big by European standards according to the Yugoslav scenario, which was dramatic and bloody. In addition, many territorial disputes in the former Yugoslav republics have not been resolved.

Serbia does not intend to put up with the loss of Kosovo, and even its two regions – Vojvodina and Sandzhak – are teetering on the verge of secession. Croatia has not fully resolved the problem of the Serbian Krajina (where Serbs historically live compactly), and the Republika Srpska periodically strives to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

If the partition of Ukraine goes according to the Yugoslav scenario, it will come as a shock to Europeans, believes political scientist Vadim Trukhachev.

– Europe would very much like to avoid such a situation, because in their understanding Ukraine plays the role of a necessary controlled buffer between it and Russia. The fact that a small part of Ukraine will fall off: Donbass or even Transcarpathia, they can accept. They also allowed Crimea to secede from Ukraine. But they will definitely not be able to put up with the fact that this country will completely fall apart.

joint venture»: — If Europe was ready for Crimea to leave (and it left safely), then why were such harsh sanctions against Russia introduced?

— Because Crimea joined the Russian Federation. This in no way fit into the plans of the Europeans. For them, the smaller Russia, the better. They perceive the expansion of the borders of our country, at least in the western direction, as a very serious threat. In addition, they believe that the borders of the countries that were formerly part of the USSR and the SFRY should coincide with the borders of the union republics.

Remember, there were no sanctions for the fact that Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia acted in relation to them in the same way as the West acted in relation to Kosovo. Even more legal than the West.

But be that as it may, the Europeans, in principle, are ready to put up with the rejection of Donbass and Transcarpathia from Ukraine. But precisely rejection, with the subsequent emergence of independent states there, and not their accession to Russia. They are not even ready for the fact that part of Transcarpathia could join Hungary, not to mention the claims of Poland and Romania.

By the way, Hungary is a specific EU country, and under certain conditions it could do this. She can do what others cannot, especially Russia, the expert believes.

By the way, the NATO summit in Madrid is just around the corner. The president Zelensky received an invitation to attend this “epoch-making” event. On this occasion, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alexey Reznikov invited the alliance to recognize Ukraine as a de facto member and include it in a new strategy designed for 10 years. But Ukraine is unlikely to hold out for such a long time.

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