Dec 31, 2020
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It becomes clear who will replace Putin

Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin

Photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin (Photo: Stanislav Krasilnikov / TASS)

Leader of the Liberal Democratic Party Vladimir Zhirinovsky in his Telegram channel again gave a forecast for the presidential elections in Russia in 2024.

He explained that the potential presidential candidates he had previously listed is not a list of people, one of whom will definitely be the successor of the current leader. Vladimir Putin in 2024. According to him, it lists people who are part of the country’s top political leadership, and now “it is logical to evaluate only one of them.” At the same time, in 2024, the candidate for the presidency of Russia may be completely different, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party admits.

“Moreover, it is possible that the current president will participate in the elections – he has the right to do so in accordance with the amendments to the Constitution. And he will most likely announce his decision not earlier than the end of 2023, “Zhirinovsky said.

He also added that if Putin does not run for president in 2024, “then a completely new person will appear from the Kremlin.”

We will remind, earlier Zhirinovsky listed people who, in his opinion, could become Putin’s successors as president of Russia.

“There are almost eight of them. But the most important thing is the current president himself. So far, we are not talking about the fact that he is leaving, and here are the successors. I just listed everyone who could be. Either he himself remains, or someone from the Kremlin team, “- said Zhirinovsky.

The Kremlin has neither confirmed nor denied these assumptions. According to the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov, the topic of Vladimir Putin’s successors has traditionally aroused very keen interest in the political horizon.

– Russian elites have always considered the presence of one person in the presidency as their advantage over Western countries, where the regular turnover of power allegedly did not provide long-term planning, – believes Evgeny Valyaev, political analyst of the Foundation for the Development of Civil Society Institutions “People’s Diplomacy”

– You can really say that it is easier for people and businesses to develop in certainty – when you understand what will happen tomorrow. But the state of certainty in Russia has been replaced by a mood of uncertainty precisely for the reason that Vladimir Putin is not young and the question of a successor is becoming more and more urgent every day. We do not receive any exact answers. It is still unknown whether Vladimir Putin will go for the next term in 2024, or the transit of power will begin almost tomorrow. From here we get a large number of speculations and predictions on this topic. In the end, we have nothing else to do.

Of course, it would be better if Vladimir Putin spoke at least about the principles of the country’s future development and his own plans. For example, he would say for sure that he will not be president after 2024. Although even here speculation would lead us to reasoning that after 2024 the presidency will mean nothing, and the current president will continue to rule, occupying the post of head of the State Council. Still, most forecasters proceed from the fact that they do not represent Putin in retirement and not in business. Therefore, all such forecasts should start not with who will be the successor, but with what position Putin will take if he leaves his current post.

“SP”: How realistic is Zhirinovsky’s forecast?

– Zhirinovsky’s forecast about Putin’s plans in 2024 can hardly be called a forecast at all. He simply listed prominent representatives of the political elite who could be in the presidency even tomorrow. Although there are persons on his list who are more human functions than politicians. Imagine Mishustina or Volodin in the office of the president is very difficult. Unless the presidency becomes suitable for people-functions. We have already seen how under Putin Dmitry Medvedevwhile serving as president, he was not the main politician in the country. Then everything seemed to work, but this scheme was abandoned after Medvedev’s first term, although if it was workable, they could have kept it for one more term.

Uncertainty goes away not only when they tell you what exactly will happen tomorrow, but when you at least understand the essence of what is happening. When Boris Yeltsin left his post, he announced this in the New Year’s address. It was then very important – after it people understood what was happening. But he might not have done it then. There would simply be a press release on January 1, 2000 that Yeltsin resigned and Putin took over as acting. It seems the configuration is the same, but everything would look completely different – more like a coup d’etat by the security forces.

Today people in Russia lack openness from the authorities, at least some kind of sincerity. For someone to honestly say what is happening and what will happen tomorrow. For someone to honestly say where we are going, why at the end of this year they are “tightening the screws” so actively by introducing laws that ensure a very high level of censorship in Russia and protect the political monopoly from any opposition.

Fear lies behind uncertainty. And when you start to analyze why to introduce such tough laws that kill any political and ideological competition in the country, then you come to the saddest predictions – about closing borders, about exit visas, about state ideology, about an impending military confrontation with Western countries, and so on. Further.

– Today, not only Zhirinovsky is actively speaking on the topic of the transit of power, – reminds Director of the EAEU Institute Vladimir Lepekhin

– This is the number one topic for all Russian politicians today. Moreover, this is almost the only topic that is actively discussed at the highest level. All other and essential topics, in particular, the problems of the development of the political system and the economy of Russia, are either not comme il faut or meaningless to discuss today. Well, and besides, on the New Year’s Eve, many politicians traditionally give different forecasts, despite the fact that they cannot make forecasts about the development of the political situation in the country – risking either getting a finger in the sky, or – if to tell the truth – cause displeasure of the higher officials state. So they are marking time on the same topic of the transit of the presidency, more than once chewed and chewed.

“SP”: According to Zhirinovsky, his list this is not a list of people, one of whom will definitely be a successor, but a list of people who are included in the country’s top political leadership. Is this a step back? Is he justified in this way?

– Zhirinovsky let it slip. The list he voiced is in no way a list of candidates for successors. Simply Zhirinovsky, as always, began his election campaign before anyone else. And he started it with a frankly hype topic. And since there are persistent rumors in the Kremlin offices that it is time to merge his party in favor of other parties, Vladimir Volfovich is already making it clear to all the country’s top officials – how loyal he is to them and, therefore, they all need him as a top speaker.

“SP”: Did Zhirinovsky enumerate everyone on his list? Who have you forgotten? Or maybe someone, on the contrary, is an obvious outsider in him, Medvedev, for example?

– From the list given by Zhirinovsky, only four figures deserve attention. First, this is Mishustin. As an analogue of Dmitry Medvedev’s technical presidential candidate in 2008, and simply – formally the second person in the state today. Secondly, this Shoigu – under which a strong lobby of a number of growing strength ethnic groups was formed. Third and fourth, it is Dumin and Naryshkin, which can suit not only Putin himself, but also the security officials. The rest of the characters are just a compliment from Vladimir Volfovich, who thus asks the country’s top officials not to forget Zhirinovsky.

“SP”: Peskov commented on these statements, they say, Zhirinovsky is an experienced politician, he knows better. What does it mean? Zhirinovsky is often credited with transmitting certain signals from the Kremlin …

– The cuckoo praises the rooster as the latter praises the cuckoo. Zhirinovsky named a number of names, however, he insists that Putin’s best successor is Putin himself. Well, how can Dmitry Peskov not call Zhirinovsky an “experienced politician” in this case?

“SP”: Can we assume that the Kremlin has settled on the option of transit through a successor? Or Putin will stay. What will it depend on?

– This is the most interesting question. In fact, no one today knows who will be Putin’s successor. Even Putin himself. We remember that in 2008 Dmitry Medvedev’s candidacy surfaced literally a few days before the United Russia congress. So everything will happen in 2024 – Putin will act according to circumstances and make a decision at the last moment.

He certainly has several options for transit, but ultimately it will not be he and not even “collective Putin” who will decide. I believe that by 2024, or even earlier, a certain compromise figure will emerge in the Russian Federation, whose election as President of Russia will be demanded by globalists.

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