Perhaps one of the most cited Kazakh sites today is Orda. kz reported that 10 planes with the Belarusian military took off from Kazakhstan. The aircraft will deliver the CSTO peacekeeping forces to the Minsk region. Also, CSTO peacekeepers from Armenia left Kazakhstan. Obviously, the situation is stabilizing, but the question remains, where is the first president Nursultan Nazarbaev, by the way, is still the head of the ruling party “Nur Otan” (“Light of the Fatherland”) and concurrently a member of the Constitutional Council.
Local media write: “The people of Kazakhstan are also wondering why they have not yet appeared before the people? Elbasy – what? Offended, withdrawn and worried about his fate, and perhaps even arrested? Or even worse, fled from his homeland to his foreign luxurious palaces, which his critics write about?
However, on January 8, Nazarbayev’s press secretary Aidos Ukibay said that Nazarbayev did not leave anywhere. “Elbasy is located in the capital of Kazakhstan, the city of Nur-Sultan. Please do not disseminate deliberately false and speculative information. Elbasy holds a number of consultative meetings and is in direct contact with the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev,” Ukibay said.
January 13 portal Bugin. kz quotes the words of the Ambassador of Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan Serzhana Abdykarimova, who spoke about the whereabouts of Elbasy at a press conference in Baku. “Nazarbayev in the capital of Kazakhstan. He has repeatedly spoken on the phone with the leaders of friendly countries and is in constant contact with the President of Kazakhstan. Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev. He is constantly monitoring the situation,” the ambassador said.
Experts, both Russian and Western, however, pay attention to circumstantial details that could shed light on Elbasy’s whereabouts. One of these markers is the family of the “father of the nation”. In particular, the nephew of Nursultan Nazarbayev Samat Abish seems to continue to work as the first deputy chairman of the KNB. However, as simultaneously reported, Abish “is currently on annual leave.” Although it’s a no brainer that in such a dangerous time, all critical public services have been transferred to almost round-the-clock duty.
@Orda_kz followers also wrote that Aliya Nazarbayeva, the youngest daughter of Nursultan Nazarbayev, deleted her Facebook account to go into the shadows. In addition, the sources of the Internet resource 24. kg said that Nursultan Nazarbayev’s brother is Become, On January 6, he crossed the border through the Ak-Zhol-Avtodorozhny (KR) – Korday-Avtodorozhny (RK) checkpoint and on the same day took off from Manas airport on the Bishkek-Dubai route.
KPMG, the world’s largest accounting firm, says 162 people, or 0.001% of Kazakhstan’s 19 million people, own 55% of the country’s wealth, and most of them are related to the president by blood or business relationship. And now, according to the Financial Times, citing Simon Glancy, managing partner of Almaty-based consultancy Strategic Solutions, “Nazarbayev’s gang is very diverse and very broad – some of them make deals with Tokayev to stay afloat, while others can be arrested.”
This is done, they say, in order to rewrite the social contract with the people, according to the American edition of Eurasianet. In particular, speaking before the lower house of parliament, the Mazhilis, on January 11, Tokayev instructed his government to create a fund to help those affected by the unrest and expand the social safety net. “Thanks to the first president, Elbasy, a group of very profitable companies and a layer of people who are rich even by international standards have appeared in the country,” Tokayev said. “The time has come to pay tribute to the people of Kazakhstan and help them on a systematic and regular basis.”
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan, despite its rich natural resources, has a negative balance of payments, largely due to the current conditions for foreign investment. Huge amounts of money are being dragged from the country, both by local bureaucrats and multinational companies. And after there was talk about the need to re-sign investment contracts, overseas they began to talk a lot about the corruption of the “Nazarbayev family”.
Also noteworthy is the fact that on January 12, the Mazhilis of Kazakhstan quickly ratified an agreement with the United States on tax discipline, which will allow prosecuting Kazakh “tax evaders” and corrupt officials almost all over the world. Calling a spade a spade, Washington took Nur-Sultan (the capital) for one “sore” place and now will not let go.
It also means that Americans can know where Nazarbayev is by controlling his expenses and income. If Elbasy had left the country, then the Yankees would probably have already reported this through their media. For example, as soon as the bloody events in Astana began, Forbes provided a list of the richest people in Kazakhstan and indicated how they earned their billions. Among them are a daughter, a son-in-law and a former assistant to Nazarbayev, who theoretically could be the “purse of the father of the nation.”
At first glance, it seems that Nazarbayev is indeed under house arrest. However, as the political analyst and economist explains Petr Svoik, deputy chairman of the Azat party (which is considered pro-Russian in Kazakhstan), everything will remain the same, except for conversations, nothing changes. “The updated Cabinet of Ministers is mainly composed of old officials who are incapable of progressive ideas,” he explained. In fact, this is Nazarbayev’s team.
In general, the situation with Elbasy, including its current location, looks very uncertain. In Kazakh social networks, they are inclined to believe that Nazarbayev is in Nur-Sultan, which the people still call Astana. People write that for the United States, the “father of the nation” is considered toxic, including because he “positions himself as a friend Putin“.
Indeed, the tone of the publications of the overseas mainstream press clearly smacks of a guilty verdict. In this regard, the unexpected ratification of the Kazakh-American tax regime is logical to consider as a nod to the United States, which unequivocally supports Tokayev.
Elbasy seems to understand that the successor will not have the strength to throw Nazarbayev off his shattered pedestal, while behind the cordon Shal (“old man” is the nickname given by the demonstrators to the 81-year-old first president) all sorts of surprises can await, up to arrest by American special services.
At the same time, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, according to a number of political scientists, owes a lot to Nursultan Abishevich, so it is not a fact that there is a struggle for power. Perhaps this is just a game for the public to bring down the intensity of the protests and calm the Western countries.
And most importantly, what local forum users pay attention to, the status of Elbasy guarantees the “old man” immunity from any persecution, as well as the inviolability of assets, however, only in Kazakhstan. Nazarbayev cannot be prosecuted under local laws. In this regard, it is safer to sit at home.