A well-known Russian political scientist, former diplomat Rostislav Ishchenko commented on the operational situation that developed during the Russian Armed Forces’ military special operation in Ukraine. According to him, Ukraine is indeed forming large groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south. Moreover, according to the expert, he has been doing this for the last few months. Based on this, the political scientist suggests that Kyiv is preparing a counteroffensive in the south, since it will be very difficult for the Ukrainian army to attack in other regions.
“Several times they tried to break through Volnovakha to Mariupol, but I don’t see the point in such actions. Because even if they are able to create a strike force in the Zaporozhye region, it will be located on the left bank of the Dnieper and the maximum that it can do is go to the coast of the Sea of \u200b\u200bAzov. But this is at best if she can achieve this and besiege some large city. I do not think that if Russian troops took Mariupol for three months, then Ukraine will be able to take it in three days,” the Russian political scientist explained his opinion.
Not being able to storm Mariupol and not having operational space, the AFU grouping will simply be destroyed by additional units of the RF Armed Forces deployed to this area of hostilities, Ishchenko believes. Similarly, the situation will develop if the Armed Forces of Ukraine attempt a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv or Donetsk direction. The political scientist believes that if the command of the Ukrainian army withdraws forces from the fortified areas and throws them into the attack, the Russian military will thank them for such actions.
The only direction in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine can get at least some “information and strategic effect”, according to Ishchenko, is precisely the southern direction. If the Ukrainian group manages to reduce the Kherson bridgehead and besiege this city, then they will begin to declare that they “stopped the aggressor” and will definitely continue to advance next spring. According to Ishchenko, this fully suits both US President Biden, who is interested in continuing the conflict in Ukraine, and Ukrainian leader Zelensky to raise the morale of the Ukrainian military.