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Sep 6, 2021
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Is Taiwan going to oust China in the UN?

Photo: views of Taipei

Photo: views of Taipei (Photo: bildbaendiger / imageBROKER.com / Global Look Press)

The authorities of the Republic of China (Taiwan) have launched a campaign to return to the UN and are looking for support from the international community, writes the South China Morning Post.

Taipei is confident that the global contribution of the state during the COVID-19 pandemic increases their chances of returning to the organization. “More and more members of the global community recognize our need to join international organizations and increase their support for our meaningful participation in these institutions”– said the secretary general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan Lily xu

She said the republic has already secured the support of 15 of the island’s official allies and has asked other sympathetic countries to raise the issue in the UN General Assembly, despite strong hostility from mainland China.

Recall that the Republic of China from 1945 to 1971 occupied China’s place in the UN, but later the United States changed its attitude, recognizing the PRC in order to create a counterweight to the Soviet Union. Since then, they have strictly followed the “one China policy”, denying Taipei recognition de jure, but, recognizing de facto, trading with it, including weapons.

All these years, Taiwan has not abandoned its attempts to “return” to the UN, but has invariably been refused because of the position of the PRC. However, now the situation is changing, and the United States is already in a state of cold war with China. But how far can they go on Beijing’s sensitive Taiwan issue? And what are they counting on in Taipei? That now someone recognizes them?

– They count on attention, – I am convinced Associate Professor of the Financial University Gevorg Mirzayan… – In recent months, there has been a sharp intensification of processes around Taiwan. In particular, a sharp increase in contacts between Taiwan and Japan. It is not about Taiwan joining the United Nations. We are talking about the banal “trolling” of China, which is engaged not only and not so much by Taiwan as by the United States behind it.

“SP”: – How is China’s “hostility” expressed? What has changed in the relationship between them?

– China’s “hostility” lies in the fact that China constantly reacts to all the inclinations of the States, Japan and other countries around Taiwan. Every time we hear harsh statements from Chinese officials. Accordingly, this is perceived as hostility. In fact, the organizers of the provocation around Taiwan want to see where and what the Chinese red lines are in the Taiwan issue.

“SP”: – And how will they conduct this campaign? Who will support them?

“Their campaign will be about expressing intentions. Intentions supported by the United States, but which will not translate into Taiwan’s place at the UN. If only because for this Taiwan must recognize itself as a state. And he will not recognize himself as a state, since this would mean an invitation to China to start full-scale hostilities against Taiwan.

“SP”: – The United States, although not immediately, but recognized the policy of one China. However, Trump questioned her. What to expect next? In fact, the ongoing cold war between Washington and Beijing can lead to the recognition of Taiwan? Or may Washington, not recognizing Taiwan, start arming it, for example?

– Taiwan presents itself as the final weapon of the United States against China. If the Americans can no longer resist Chinese soft power, lose to China on economic ideological fronts, then they can launch Taiwan history at any moment. Its danger is that if Taiwan recognizes itself as independent, then China will have no other options but to start a full-scale war. A war in which he will be the aggressor who attacked the island, while the United States will have a legitimate reason to start a war against the People’s Republic of China.

“SP”: – And how will Beijing react if any country abandons the one-China policy? How will he answer?

– Traditional China responds to this by lowering the level of diplomatic relations or even terminating them altogether. Depending on how seriously the one China principle is violated. In parallel with this, of course, there will be economic sanctions from China. That is why no one really has a desire to do this. Well, maybe only in the countries of the Baltic level.

“SP”: – Earlier, Taiwan already occupied China’s place in the UN. Are two “Chinese armchairs” technically possible? After all, Taiwan can be called Taiwan, not the Republic of China … There were two Yemen, two Germany …

– No, It is Immpossible. If only because it would mean recognition by everyone, including China, of Taiwan’s independence. This is not possible for China. Including for internal political reasons. Such recognition will lead to the downfall of the current Chinese government.

“SP”: How far can US trolling go? The relationship is at an impasse. Trump, barely becoming president, held telephone conversations with Taiwan, thereby violating a multi-year ban. And what about Biden? Can they go further, and where are the red lines?

– The fact of the matter is that it is not clear where the red line is. A clear red line is Taiwan’s open recognition of its independence. This is “casus belli” in its purest form. But what are the red lines up to this line? Where and what will China perceive as its intersection? Now there are games around these red lines. Games with cheap wins and cheap performances that can be very expensive for all participants.

– It is more likely that the UN will cease to exist than Taiwan will achieve recognition of independence, – I am sure political scientist Andrey Milyuk. – There are no prospects in this matter.

Taiwan, as they say, is “working out the number.” Every year he fulfills, some breakthrough achievements this year, and even the next one should not be expected. Why, then, Taiwan is doing this – about the same motivation as Ukraine’s attempts to return Crimea: this is part of a national myth. Both countries cannot change the current situation, so all that remains is to whine and appeal to the conscience of the world community.

The world community itself, represented by the UN, is close to political death, because it has ceased to respond to the changes that have taken place in recent years: the world is being split into zones of influence of regional countries – the ringleaders, the initiators of a new redistribution. Naturally, they do not need a relic of the post-war world order, which is also subject to the influence of yesterday’s world gendarme.

In this sense, Taiwan also looks like a relic of an unconquered civil war in China. A thorn in the middle of the 20th century. In the coming new world, the existence of a free Taiwan is out of the question. But up to this point, the United States may well decide to recognize Taiwan to one degree or another: relations with China will only get worse, right up to the resumption of the economic war, regardless of whether Trump or his opponents come to power. Who will follow the US example? Very few, the closest allies, and India hostile to China: it is too expensive to quarrel with China.

The UN will not save Taiwan; the United States will only delay its return to the mainland state. The only thing the island can hope for is China’s internal problems. One gets the feeling that the current omnipotence of China, its rapid expansion to all continents at once – all this amazes the imagination, but also hides from the eyes of observers some important internal processes, the accumulation of contradictions.

Inside China, a class of wealthy urban dwellers has only recently begun to emerge – an analogue of the stratum of society from which our “creative class” then grew, lively and noisy, demanding a piece of political power. Having fully enjoyed their economic well-being, will this class not demand political representation for itself; will not the CCP carry forward with its feet, despite all the petty policing in the life of a Chinese man in the street? We have too little data to make an accurate statement.

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