Unlike the “rival” sitting in Latvia Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Alexander Lukashenko He considers himself to be the legally elected president of Belarus. What he reported at the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (VNS), which is taking place these days in Minsk (February 11-12). At the same time, he said that if there are doubts that he won 80 percent of the vote, “let it be 76 or 68 percent.” Clarified: “Someone half a percent, one percent, two could finish.” That is, stating the very fact of victory in the presidential elections, he nevertheless admitted the fact of falsification. And this was one of the reasons for the protests.
Lukashenko himself is not going to voluntarily surrender his presidential powers, declares the need to preserve the presidential republic, and has appointed a referendum for 2022 on amendments to the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, which will “truncate” presidential powers. It seems like he feels quite confident in his chair and was able to beat off the protest wave quite successfully, but there is some concern in his words. “You see, not today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, no matter how heroic I am and so on: the time will come, other people will come. They are already knocking on the door, but I can hear it, ”Lukashenka postponed the term of his departure indefinitely.
In addition to a few more phrases he uttered at the VNS: “It was a mutiny, a blitzkrieg that did not take place. So far ”and“ We have held our country. Bye ”, in which there is a hint of uncertainty in the future of both the country and ourselves. Lukashenka is remembered for another one. “The time will come and you will choose a new Lukashenka for yourself,” Father promised, while for some reason he regretted “friends” Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Husseinwho were “impaled and hanged.” Have you tried on the sad fate of the leaders of Libya and Iraq after the overthrow?
Lukashenko also outlined his future prospects, although he spoke about his supporters. “My main condition for leaving power is that there is peace, order in the country, no protest actions, not turning the country upside down, expressing an opinion within the law. Second condition. If it turns out that the wrong ones will come to power and they will have different views, then the second paragraph will write down that not a single hair from the head of you (delegates of the VNS – SP) and supporters of the current president can fall “, – resolutely Father said.
Here, of course, there are certain doubts about the loyalty to the current government of those who were beaten by riot police with truncheons in Minsk, who are imprisoned for “political reasons.” Any revolution, as you know, devours even its own children, not to mention opponents. And then Lukashenka, mentioning not “those”, would be more appropriate to say the phrase: “Calm down, delegates! Let’s sit down with a mustache! “
What could be the fate of Old Man, who already hears “other people” knocking on his door? Speaking on this topic especially for “SP” St. Petersburg political scientist, expert on Belarus Alexander Zimovsky.
– At the time of our conversation, no special nishtyaks are supposed for the former presidents of Belarus. There is article 39 of the “Law on the President of the Republic of Belarus”. She allows the former president to settle anywhere in Belarus in a state apartment. At the end of his service to the Belarusian people, the president is also entitled to a personal pension (the amount is not specified) and a free funeral.
Actually, to date, no other guarantees are indicated. That is, no abyatsanks (promises) of Lukashenka’s opponents will have any legal force. Moreover, we have seen how Yanukovych in Kiev it was not some political beggars like the current opponents of Lukashenka who gave guarantees. He was given guarantees by all EU member states, and even the United States in addition. And where were those guarantees less than a day after issue? They were in the outhouse of the Mariinsky Palace in Kiev.
This, so to speak, is a lesson for good Minsk fellows.
I would like to emphasize that this is the oil painting in Minsk as of today. Tomorrow everything can be replayed, these are very situational layouts. And the point is not in guarantees, but in which of the hypothetical successors of Lukashenka will adhere to these guarantees?
For example, the combination “tandem”, which was carried out Putin and Medvedev in 2008-2012, excluded in Belarus. On the other hand, why not? Against the background of old Biden, Lukashenko is still quite cheerful. 70 years – the heyday of a politician, they used to say in the Brezhnev era. And there are no constitutional grounds prohibiting Lukashenka from running in the future.
The problem is different. To date, there is not a single person in Belarus who will undertake to fulfill any, even scanty, guarantees in relation to the future former Belarusian president. Simply no. Although I know for sure that just outside Belarus there are two, maybe three such people. If Lukashenka turns out to be able to come to an agreement on this issue, the issue of transferring power in Minsk seems to me no more difficult than stealing a piece of bread from a blind man.
And yet it is worth recalling that even the son of a Turkish citizen, Comrade Bender, clearly knew: only an insurance policy gives a 100% guarantee. And the experience of the post-Soviet republics proves this. The easiest thing that happens to former presidents in the CIS and the surrounding area is the fastest possible weaning of everything that they have acquired through honest, backbreaking work. With the subsequent flight of the former somewhere far away from grateful fellow citizens. By the way, Mishustin recently allowed flights from Belarus to Rostov-on-Don. In Minsk, many of Lukashenka’s enemies took this as a hint. And the former Kyrgyz leader Bakiev sits in Minsk, he can tell his Belarusian colleague a lot about guarantees.
Based on the above, it should be understood that Lukashenka himself knows very well that no one among those who are against him will give him any guarantees. Only if in the form of blah blah blah. But he also knows that no one will give him any guarantees among those who have now stayed with him: now there are no hunters in Minsk to pull this obviously toxic clamp upon himself. As the wisest Belarusian politician, Lukashenka knows that his only guarantee is that he is the current president. Everything will fall.
That is why he acts nobly: “For me, they say, do not worry, I am not afraid. But I will take care of my comrades-in-arms. ” Again, I let my emotions sideways. And I turn to the language of law.
Today, in the legal field of Belarus, the institution of national / popular assemblies as such is absent. Accordingly, people attending these meetings do not have any legal status. Unlike, for example, the status of deputies of the Belarusian parliament, deputies of local municipal elected bodies. Therefore, it is reasonable to extend to the meeting participants some analogue of parliamentary immunity. Here Lukashenka is doing everything right, trying to give the assemblies the status of a legally protected institution.
Of course, now opponents hang him on the collar. However, the head of the republic himself is now planning a game based on winning the pace. And the loss of quality doesn’t bother him much. He has other reasons for unrest above the roof.