The American magazine National Interest wondered if a truce in the Korean format could put an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine? Tried to answer Jung In Leeretired South Korean Air Force intelligence officer, and now an expert at the American University School of International Service.
We are talking about the fact that the parties, apparently, will sit down at the negotiating table in the fall, in any case, on the eve of winter, Ukraine will urgently need a respite for the heating season.
So, Jung Eun Lee writes that the conflict between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea (from June 25, 1950 to July 27, 1953) went on without a declaration of war and, in the end, ended up in a dead end. The result is what we see now – a freeze on hostilities that has lasted almost 70 years. How not to recall the words of the head of the intelligence department of the US Department of Defense here Scott Berrierwho on May 10 at a hearing in the US Congress said: “The Russians do not win, the Ukrainians do not win, and here we are in a stalemate.”
Apparently, this spurred the former intelligence officer, disguised as an expert, to recall the once sensational military history all over the world: “The United States and South Korea could neither completely destroy the northern communist forces nor return the territory of North Korea, which was claimed by the South, since the intervention Communist China made further northward advance too costly. In an effort to prevent the Korean War from escalating into a global one, the United States finally agreed to a truce.”
In his opinion, international sanctions against Russia and huge military assistance to Ukraine were important factors in strengthening the resistance of Ukrainians. However, the risks of an escalation of the conflict between NATO and Russia have also increased, which prompted Western elites and even, allegedly, the Kremlin to start thinking about a truce. In particular, the head of the intelligence department of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Budanov suggested: “Russia is considering the ‘Korean scenario’.” He wrote about this in the Telegram account of his department.
NI writes that many experts are sure that the conflict will end in a freeze, and the losses for the “square” will be such that it will be incapable of combat for many years. There is logic in this, even if NATO pumps up the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons, Ukraine has already exhausted the personnel of the army, while its replacement will face problems of weak morale. To put it simply, the hulks will do their best to avoid senseless mobilizations. For all its posturing, Kyiv will face this problem sooner rather than later.
Jung Eun Lee seems to think that it will take some time for the front lines to stabilize. It is not clear what he is guided by, putting forward such forecasts. It is possible that the Russian troops allegedly will not go to the “square” areas, where they will be deprived of civilian support. Yes, and the APU will lose the desire to go to certain death during the attack on Russian positions. If the Ukrainian army, even on the defensive, suffers huge losses, then what can we say about attacks on an enemy that has air superiority.
Unlike the Korean confrontation of 1950-1953, the “freeze” in Ukraine could end much earlier. Already, the consequences for the West from the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict outweigh the benefits from the weakening of the Kremlin. Of course, it’s not decent to give away the victory Putinbut nowhere to go. Even the US and Britain, which have modest trade relations with Russia, are facing an unprecedented cost-of-living crisis.
It’s before Zelensky Johnsonthe British prime minister, pretends to be such a cool maine, but in his homeland he has already become a toxic politician. “The state of the economy is far from the only black cloud hanging over the British politician,” writes the Daily Mail, Britain’s leading publication. The fact is that the conflict in Ukraine only delayed, but did not cancel the trade war between Brussels and London because of Brexit. Now the European bureaucrats really want to punish the British for fleeing the EU. To make it clear what a pig the British planted on the Germans and other “French”, you should look at the dynamics of the EU single currency. The euro fell against the dollar from 1.24 Eur/Usd in January 2021 to 1.04 this May.
This means that completely different politicians will soon come to power in Britain, more concerned with internal problems than “bloody showdowns between brother Slavs.” This is exactly how Johnson is reproached by his opponents.
There is no doubt that the same future awaits and Bidennotably the U.S. Senator from Kentucky Rand Paulvetoed blocked a bill to provide Ukraine with a record nearly $40 billion in additional aid. “We cannot save Ukraine while dooming the US economy. I swore an oath to the US Constitution, and not to any other country, ”he expressed the opinion of so many politicians.
However, the Yankees and Britons, in comparison with other countries, as they say, live in chocolate. By the way, in Ukraine they understand this very well. Zhovto-blakitnye experts write: “If you want to see what the world expects in the near future, then here is a proof from Sri Lanka. Structural analysis of world processes directly shows that a big reset has come and we all have to go through this path.”
In Sri Lanka, the authorities gave the army the authority to shoot demonstrators on the spot. The country is on the verge of self-destruction. Hungry Sri Lankans are beating journalists and burning the villas of politicians, robbing the homes of rich and wealthy people. Member of the ruling party Amarakerty Aturokala shot dead two people and then himself when he was surrounded by a crowd of demonstrators.
By the way, it is reported that there are no wheat reserves in Georgia anymore, only flour is imported, and 90% of it is from Russia. In this Caucasian country, the UN recommendations on the need to have a two-month supply of grain are not observed at all. The shadow of Sri Lanka is already hanging over Tbilisi.
New Delhi banned the export of wheat. Due to the sharp increase in world prices and in order to ensure food security, India, which is one of the largest producers in the world, has suspended the shipment of grain, and the decision has already entered into force.
To stop the self-destruction of the world economy, the US needs to return to the state before February 24, whether Zelensky likes it or not. “It is important to note that Seoul initially opposed the truce,” Jung Eun Lee writes. “The United States used leverage against South Korea.” Apparently, a similar scenario is being prepared for the Ze-team. Washington will promise a defense alliance in exchange for a political solution to territorial losses. Moreover, Kyiv will be deprived of the right to start hostilities without the consent of the States.
Whether Moscow will agree to this is an interesting question. The Kremlin has tightened its demands. If earlier non-participation in NATO was a basic requirement, now a ban on EU membership has been added. There is no talk of a defense alliance between Ukraine and the United States at all. Otherwise, the “Ze-team”, or their successors, will receive “Sri Lanka” in their remaining territory.