The Russian command, showing flexibility, promptly learned the lessons from the recent events in the Kharkiv region. Attacks on the supply lines of the Kyiv troops intensified, making the already illusory “counteroffensive” in the Kherson region absolutely impossible. The Ingulets River for Ukrainians has turned from a natural ally into an impenetrable barrier.
Ingulets is the right tributary of the Dnieper, the two rivers merge 7 kilometers north of the Kherson suburbs. This is what makes the river the most important natural factor on the battlefield for the Kherson region, which Kyiv wants to start.
Ingulets is also used for the transfer of forces. So, on August 31, when Kyiv tried to launch a “counteroffensive” on Kherson from the Krivoy Rog-Nikolaev direction, they tried to transport 12 Polish tanks through Ingulets. The vehicles were destroyed by Russian artillery fire, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
From the side of the Nikolaev region, significant forces and heavy armored vehicles were drawn to Ingulets. Forces of the 46th Airmobile Brigade, the 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade, the 35th Marine Brigade and other units tried to force Ingulets near the settlements of Lozovoe, Velikoye Artakovo, Belaya Krinitsa and Belogorka on the border of the Kherson and Nikolaev regions.
Almost all attempts to cross the Ingulets were repulsed by Russian troops.
On the evening of September 14, a precision strike was delivered on the Karachunovskaya dam on the outskirts of Krivoy Rog and on a pumping station on the Ingulets River. The impact was reported to the authorities of Krivoy Rog. The Russian Defense Ministry has not officially commented on the missile attack.
As a result of the destruction of hydraulic structures, the water level in Ingulets rose by 2 meters in a matter of hours. This made crossing the river virtually impossible: the Ukrainian crossings, hastily erected under continuous Russian fire, were washed away from the right to the left bank of the Ingulets. And those few Ukrainian units that nevertheless managed to get over earlier were deprived of supplies and from September 15 were methodically destroyed by Russian strikes.
Mayor of Krivoy Rog Alexander Vilkul announced that in order to lower the water in Ingulets, it was necessary to undermine the dam twice in the Chernogorka region. But this did not save the Ukrainian troops.
Destruction of the Ukrainian group in the Krivoy Rog-Nikolaev direction military expert Michael Peck of National Defense Magazine considers the result of progress in building the so-called “chains of defeat”.
Russian artillery does not operate as an autonomous type of weapon, it is built into a single system that includes its own weapons, unmanned aircraft and communication networks.
Maneuverable Russian drones are being used to locate Ukrainian forces. It is this method that has proven to be significantly superior to other guidance capabilities, even such as radar.
In addition, electronic warfare means are used – counter-battery radars – such as the Zoo. They can be deployed in minutes and allow tracking dozens of enemy positions every minute. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, began to receive radars for counter-battery combat only recently – these are German Cobra vehicles.
Not inclined to exaggerate Ukrainian successes and the Polish military analyst Conrad Music from consulting agency Rochan. He believes that the supply of weapons to Ukraine is still too limited – and in fact all the best weapons have been used by Kyiv troops in the Kharkiv region.
Western officials have acknowledged that arms deliveries have been sporadic in recent months due to logistical problems and Allied fears that their own stockpiles are running low.
Konrad Muzyka believes that, despite the Russian regrouping, which allowed the Ukrainians to occupy the Kharkiv region, the front line will not change in the coming months. Now neither Ukraine nor Russia has enough manpower and equipment to carry out a large-scale combined arms offensive.
“We will see probing attacks, limited raids in certain areas. Depending on how they play out, we will see more attacks or counterattacks,” Muzyka says.
Looks with skepticism at all the recent thunderous statements Alexey Arestovich as well as Alexey Reznikov and another military expert is the CEO of security firm Global Guardian Dale Buckner. He believes that at least until the spring of 2023, the Ukrainians will no longer be able to conduct any significant operations, at most, some kind of tactical redeployment.
Buckner and Muzyka put not only Kyiv propagandists in a puddle, but also “hawks” from the USA or Great Britain, who are now pushing Zelensky for decisive action. Basically reckless suicide.
Moreover, the regrouping of Russian forces reliably blocked the southern direction for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which, obviously, Kyiv intended to use for new breakthrough attempts, writes the Financial Times. The destruction of Ukrainian forces on Ingulets is proof of this.
NATO Secretary General himself even warned Ukraine against dizziness from success Jens Stoltenberg:
— Make no mistake… We know that Russia has a great military potential. And we must be ready for a long period and be ready to support Ukraine for as long as it takes.