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Jan 5, 2022
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In search of new opportunities

In search of new opportunities

On the results of the year 2021.

Analysts were right when they predicted a year ago that the upcoming 2021 will be difficult and will require a lot of effort from all of us. Indeed, the crisis has not gone anywhere. However, according to ancient wisdom, a crisis is a period of turning point, when problems appear that cannot be dealt with in the old ways. In other words, new conditions are emerging and new opportunities are emerging. For recovery and recovery.

WE WILL CAPTURE AND OVERCOME THE PRICES

The prices were the record holders last year. Almost everything that people need in the first place. They rushed to grow at an indecent rate and created at least two sharp intrigues. First, where will inflation go? The second – where did it actually come from?

Having started at the beginning of the year, by November inflation exceeded all official forecasts and climbed to 8.4% per annum. This is according to Rosstat. And according to the research company “Romir” it reached 17%, which made Russia an anti-leader in terms of price growth among emerging markets. Inflation higher for November 2021 was recorded only by Turkey (21.3%) and Argentina (51.2%), as well as Sudan (35%), Syria (139%), Venezuela (1198%).

It was funny to watch how the officials commented on the reasons for what was happening. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov found the guilty in the West. Say, the main factors of inflation in the Russian Federation are a tangible rise in world food prices, a weakening of the ruble and a decline in yields for a number of crops. Here our fault – and even then in half with nature – is only in the fall of the harvest. And everything else was “brought from behind the cordon”. It is ridiculous and does not inspire confidence. But State Duma deputy Mikhail Delyagin issued that monopolies are responsible for the rise in food prices. He cited potatoes as an example, saying that world markets have no effect on the value of Russian vegetables.

Between these “extreme” versions, there are dozens of others. And none of them really explained what was happening. “It is very convenient to nod to abroad, but our internal preconditions for inflation have not been canceled. The first is the insufficient level of competition in the economy. The manufacturer is not afraid that if he overestimates prices, then his products will stop buying and he will have to leave the market, – more or less reveals the situation, Doctor of Economics Igor Nikolaev. – The second is the directive mechanisms of regulation. They tried to freeze prices for sugar and sunflower oil, which created an additional impetus to increase prices for products of other manufacturers. The third factor is Russian anti-sanctions: we still do not import many types of food from European countries, and this limits supply and reduces competition. “

Perhaps, the reasons for the “weakening of the economy’s immunity” have been named and it is time to start restorative procedures.

So the head of the Federation Council, Valentina Matvienko, believes that the peak of growth in the cost of food in Russia was passed in 2021: “The forecast for next year looks more favorable. We hope the inflation situation will be better. ” That is, says Valentina Ivanovna, we will catch up with these prices in 2022, put them on a chain and move on. I want to believe.

SCIENCE GIVES GOOD

According to authoritative economists, 2021, with all its problems, can be considered relatively successful. According to the Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, GDP growth was 4.3%, investments in fixed assets grew even more – by 5.6%. Already in the middle of the year, the decline in 2020 caused by the epidemic and lockdown was overcome. Experts say that there is reason to hope that this trend will continue in 2022.

And not at all sly optimists from Rosstat, but serious scientists assert: Russia has good opportunities to rise to the target targets of annual GDP growth by 5-5.5%! There are production capacities that are not loaded by a third, far from exhausted resources of the common labor market of the EAEU, an abundance of industrial raw materials and energy resources exported for export, scientific and technical potential that has been used so far by only a quarter.

“By all formal signs, the economy has recovered. The pre-pandemic level has been exceeded, albeit only slightly. There is a possibility that by the end of the year we will reach zero or even a small plus in terms of the dynamics of real disposable incomes of the population, – says Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. – However, we will continue to lag behind the 2013 indicator by 10 percent. But with recovery, everything is more difficult. Figuratively speaking, a sharp exacerbation of a cold disease was overcome, but the chronic diseases accompanying the economic organism remained.

Academician Sergei Glazyev believes that the production capabilities of the Russian Federation and unused resources allow increasing production by more than 8% per year.

In short, Russian science comes to the conclusion that there is enough in the country to overcome difficult circumstances. And it also gives the go-ahead for overcoming the crisis, for the economy to exit the black strip already in 2022. But this requires, first of all, the political will of the Kremlin and the will of the government. So few and so many.

BANK KEY WHERE THE MONEY IS

Another phenomenon of the past year is the rapid growth of the key rate of the Central Bank. The key rate is the price at which the Central Bank lends (or sells) funds to credit institutions.

Someone once suggested to the head of the Central Bank E. Nabiullin that the higher the key rate, that is, the more expensive the money in the country, the lower the inflation. A year ago, in January – March 2021, the key rate of the Central Bank was 4.25%, and inflation was 4.9% per annum. The Central Bank rate in January 2022 is 8.5%, and inflation is 8.4% per annum. (Although according to experts, as we have already said – all 17%!)

Obviously, an increase in the key rate not only does not reduce inflation, but, on the contrary, pushes it up. Because the more expensive the borrowed money is for businesses, the less they borrow. The less circulating assets, the less the production of goods. And students also know that inflation rises not when there is little money in the economy, but when there are few goods. Here is the secret of the key from the bins of the Central Bank.

“According to the Bank of Russia program, the monetary authorities will continue to increase the withdrawal of money from the economy from the current 29.4 trillion to 31.8 trillion rubles in 2022,” says academician Sergei Glazyev. – About half of this money will be unspent taxpayers’ funds, withdrawn mainly from the NWF. But the Central Bank itself plans to increase withdrawals from the banking system, citing the need to neutralize the structural liquidity surplus. Translated into Russian, this means that the Central Bank offers commercial banks to keep money on their deposits and buy its bonds at a considerable percentage. “

That is, without doing anything and without risking anything, commercial banks can receive today at 8% per annum.

But even in this monetary and financial fog, something positive is visible – there is a lot of money in the country today! The federal budget surplus for 2021 is 2 trillion rubles. And Russia’s international reserves, as the president assured at a press conference on December 23, reached $ 625 billion. Crazy resources to move mountains with!

FROM DEPRESSION TO MERCY

And most importantly, signs of the awakening of civil society were revealed. Let them be modest so far, but quite positive. Just one example out of thousands.

The management of the Russian Relief Fund (Rusfond), created in the fall of 1996 to help seriously ill children, announced that in 2021 the collection of donations increased by 100-120 million rubles, reaching 1.5 billion. Thanks to this, 1,600 sick children will receive such necessary assistance. An important phenomenon was noted in the Rusfond: more and more citizens began to donate on an individual basis, to spend not corporate funds on charity, but their own. This trend, according to experts, testifies that there is now more mercy, mutual understanding and care in society, without which it is not a society.

People are gradually emerging from the depression caused by the pandemic, poverty and stagnation. They want good and try to create it. This is where recovery begins.

Happy New Year!

Pavel Maksimov.

Photo: ADOBE STOCK

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