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Apr 29, 2022
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In early May, the British Tories are waiting for a bloodbath

Scottish independence and Irish unification movements gain momentum

May 5 in the UK will be local elections. Voters in England, Wales and Scotland will elect local councilors, while the people of Northern Ireland will elect their own government that day.

The election results could change the entire political picture of the United Kingdom. A recent sociological survey conducted by the agency Redfield and Wilton Strategiesheralds the defeat of the Conservative Party.

Traditionally, the Conservatives and Labor have had their own areas of dominance. Labor has historically led the way in health care and the fight against poverty; the Tories excelled in the economy, the fight against crime and the control of the security forces. But now Labor is ahead of the Conservatives everywhere. Even Boris Johnson’s half-mad idea of ​​sending illegal migrants to Rwanda did not help: according to British law, no more than 200 illegal immigrants a year can be sent to Africa, and about 20 thousand will have to be imprisoned, which will cost the treasury almost a billion pounds.

Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council, told the Times that “treatment of refugees as criminals and human cargo for deportation to Rwanda… inhumane, cruel and disgusting”. This scandal further lowered Boris Johnson in the eyes of voters.

The economy of the United Kingdom practically stood up, economic growth stopped due to anti-Russian sanctions. Inflation in the UK reached a 30-year high of 6.2%. The National Statistical Service (ONS) noted that the February price spike was triggered by a 25% increase in electricity bills and a 54% jump in gasoline prices.

The ratings of the Conservatives and their leader Boris Johnson have been declining since May 2020. The reason was the so-called Party – the scandal with the visit of the Prime Minister to parties on Downing Street during hard lockdowns and even on the eve of the funeral of the Queen’s husband Prince Philip. Party dropped Boris Johnson’s approval rating to an all-time low in his tenure as prime minister. Two-thirds (66%) of the British public have a negative view of the Prime Minister and only a quarter (24%) are positive.

To keep his ratings down, Johnson put pressure on Scotland Yard to suspend the Partygate investigation, further outraging the UK public. A number of Conservative MPs refrain from judging the future of Boris Johnson until the results of local elections are known.

Last year the Scottish National Party (SNP) easily won the elections to the local parliament of Scotland, and now she plans to win the municipal elections. The manifesto prepared by the leadership of the SNP for the local elections emphasizes that holding a second referendum on Scottish independence is the main goal of the party.

Special situation in Northern Ireland. For the first time in history, the United Ireland party Sinn Féin can win a majority in the National Assembly of Northern Ireland and form a government. The latest opinion polls show that Sinn Féin is significantly ahead of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which sees Northern Ireland only as part of the UK.

Institute of Irish Studies professor Peter Shirlow notes that if Sinn Féin leader Michel O’Neill becomes Prime Minister of Northern Ireland, it will “The Death Agony of Protestant Unionism”.

“For many [избирателей Шинн Фейн] it will be an emotionally significant event, to which they did not think to live”says Dr. McGlinchey, Associate Professor of Political Science at Coventry University. In the expected victory of the Nationalists, McGlinchy sees the manifestation of a long-term trend towards the unification of Ireland.

At the same time, this will come as a shock to the Protestants in Northern Ireland. “Northern Ireland was created as a Protestant state for a Protestant peoplesays Dr. Nicholas White, visiting professor at the University of Ulster and senior director of consulting firm APCO Worldwide. “The emergence of a nationalist prime minister will mean that a historic shift has taken place.”.

Daly Mail predicts Tory ‘bloodbath’ (blood bath) May 5 and the loss of 800 seats in local government.

Although the Laborites do not have a popular figure capable of competing with Boris Johnson, and even in the conditions of Tory dominance in the House of Commons, the Whig party has every chance of defeating the Conservatives with their tarnished reputation in local elections.

It is also predicted that in the next elections to the British Parliament, Labor will receive a majority, and their leader, Sir Keir Starmer, will become the next prime minister. For the sake of victory, Labor may ally with the SNP, promising Scottish nationalists to support a second referendum on Scottish independence.

Cover photo: REUTERS/Toby Melville

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