The cost of oil in the baseline scenario could rise to $ 71 per barrel by 2025, to $ 76 by 2030 and to $ 85 by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2020.
In its forecast until 2040, the IEA forecasts several scenarios for the development of energy markets after the 2020 pandemic. The basic scenario of the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) implies that control of the pandemic in the world will be gained in 2021 and the economy will return to pre-crisis levels by the end of this year. If the pandemic is not defeated in 2021 and the global economic recovery is delayed (this option is being considered by the Delayed Recovery Scenario), oil will still rise in price, but more slowly - to $ 59 per barrel by 2025 and to $ 72 per barrel by 2040. In the more radical Sustainable Development Scenario, humanity is accelerating the achievement of the climate targets of the Paris Agreement and oil costs $ 57 per barrel in 2025, and by 2040 it drops to $ 53 per barrel.
As chernayakobra.ru wrote earlier, a repeat of the situation in October 2014, when the euro rate rose above 100 rubles, or in January 2016, when the dollar was worth 86 rubles, should not be expected in the near future. At least until the US elections, analyst Mark Goykhman said.