Jul 31, 2020
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How the search for “Russian threat” turned out for Lukashenka

President of Belarus got entangled in Luka's Game

The current Belarusian presidential campaign from the very beginning was characterized by a noticeable anti-Russian component: first, at the level of statements by top officials (mainly the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus Vladimir Makei, who was then almost quoted by Alexander Lukashenko), then a performance was staged with the allegedly pro-Russian protege Viktor Babariko, at the same time court experts threw in "analytics" claiming that other main rivals of the current head of state were connected with Russia. And even Sergei Tikhanovsky, who is now passing the time behind bars, and his wife Svetlana is going to the presidency under the BCHB banners, joining forces with the headquarters of two other disgraced candidates - Babariko and Tsepkalo.

Only a person who is very far from the Belarusian realities could suspect something pro-Russian in this rally, which is gathering today unprecedented rallies for the country. Tikhanovskaya openly opposes the participation of Belarus in the alliance project with Russia and advocates a return to the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus of 1994, leveling everything that came after - the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, and the state status of the Russian language, and other numerous agreements and agreements with Russia that operated for a quarter of a century.

Everything is very clear: who is going to take power in the country, displacing Lukashenka, and why this is being done, and who needs everything that is happening in Belarus today. Obviously not in Moscow.

The rally-concert in support of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in Minsk on July 30 gathered, according to various sources, from 34 to 63 thousand people

The rally-concert in support of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in Minsk on July 30 gathered, according to various sources, from 34 to 63 thousand people

The rally-concert in support of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in Minsk on July 30 gathered, according to various sources, from 34 to 63 thousand people

However, Lukashenka's entourage for some reason decided (it is not yet clear why) that the best way to convincingly win the presidential elections is to outmaneuver local nationalists in attacks on Russia and, if something happens, “lead” the protest. It is well known that the core of this protest is made up of the very oppositionists who staged marches against integration with Russia and, as they thought then in Minsk, gave the authorities trump cards in negotiations with Moscow. Minsk wanted more preferences, and slogans like "No integration!" seemed to the Belarusian side a good way to put pressure on the allies.

Of course, the Belarusian authorities could not help but understand that in the presidential elections they will face the same anti-Russian crowd that will now tackle Lukashenka. One cannot suspect the Belarusian elite of extreme naivety, believing that the "belchervonabelia"andSuddenly, the president is in favor of “their own. Although, it was possible that the anti-Russian rhetoric would bring moderate nationalists closer to Lukashenko, and the main electorate of the AHL would vote for him anyway.

However, a few days before the elections, it turned out that the technology of “intercepting the initiative” from the opposition, which promised Lukashenka’s success, “ate up” the president himself. He came to the finish line with the prospect of a second round of elections and the threat of mass protests, when not hundreds or thousands, but tens of thousands of people take to the streets. In Ukraine, in 2014, this was enough to announce a "million" protesters and stage a coup d'etat.

Pastoral pictures of protests against Lukashenka

Pastoral pictures of protests against Lukashenka

Pastoral pictures of protests against Lukashenka

Pastoral pictures of protests against Lukashenka

In Belarus, from the very beginning of the campaign, the technology "Sasha 3%" against "Yama 97%" was successfully working, and the so-called solidarity actions from Poland to Miami demonstrated that the West had already decided who should be considered the overwhelming majority of the Belarusian people - those tens of thousands waving BCHB-banners and chanting “Faithful! We can! Feathers! " And even the hastily conducted polls commissioned by the state Belarusian media, which have just revealed to the world 72.3% of Lukashenka and less than 10% of the opposition, no longer save the situation, since society has no confidence in these figures. Perhaps, at the start of the campaign, Lukashenka had such ratings, but someone advised him not to shine, and this “someone” was clearly aware of the scenario “Sasha 3%”. And now only one rally-concert of the opposition in Minsk is evidence that 10% is enough to make the picture look like it was from Kiev, and 72 seem to be less than 3. The laws of mathematics do not work in politics.

An attempt by Lukashenka's entourage to “lead” the protest by defaming Russia failed miserably: the opposition seemed to be ready for it and avoided any obvious attacks on Russia. It seems that they were guided by the well-known advice of the mayor of Dnipro (Dnipropetrovsk): "It is necessary to give any promises to the scum, to make any concessions ... And to hang them ... They must be hung later ..." So the opposition has postponed the "Russian question" "for later" (it is already decided by the return to the 1994 Constitution), and now they are beating only Lukashenka as an opponent of fair elections.

"Fair elections" are the main trap in Western technologies of color revolutions, and the Belarusian president not only fell into it, but also got entangled in traps, appearing before both "Western partners" and allies in the EAEU and the CSTO, not to mention Russia, and before its own voters in an unfavorable, to put it mildly, light. The West saw a dictator who ruthlessly cracks down on political opponents and peaceful protesters (while they are indeed, with rare exceptions, peaceful). The allies saw great oddities in Lukashenka's statements and actions, but for a long time all this was attributed to the costs of a difficult electoral process. The people in Belarus were generally stunned by the news: the "belchervonabelia" gently avoided the question of the ownership of the Crimea, and the presidential army stubbornly sought "evidence" of insidious Russian interference in the Belarusian elections.

Such a cute BCHB opposition

Such a cute BCHB opposition

Lukashenka, fighting the specter of the "Russian threat", won absolutely nothing, on the contrary, by the election day he approached a rival who had significantly strengthened, "overgrown" with significant support from the street (and not only in the capital), became the ideal of the Belarusian democracy. Three very pretty women, whose husbands and / or comrades-in-arms languish in captivity or are forced to hide their children from Lukashenka, white shirts, red hearts ... And this just knocks out a tear: “I don't need power. I want children, my husband and continue to fry my cutlets "... Well, everything, literally everything, as they like in the West: and the gender issue with an edge (but Lukashenko believes that a woman cannot lead the country: "It will collapse, poor fellow"), and purity of thoughts ("fair elections"), and democratic aspirations (referendum on the return to the 1994 Constitution). And what does the AHL have? Repression of husbands and associates of these lovely ladies and persistent search for "Russian influence"? Fighting the "free press"?

Lukashenka did not manage to knock out the anti-Russian trump cards from the BCHB-opposition - for the reason that the trump cards in this difficult game were completely different. And the traps set for the AHL worked: he fought with the alleged Russian protege Babariko - and received a united opposition, and even with "poor fellows" women at the head and large-scale mass protests.

Now the public, with open mouths, is watching the play "33 Russian Heroes", to whom the unthinkable is attributed: from destabilizing the situation to preparing terrorist attacks and even, according to rumors from the Belarusian KGB, an attempt on the life of the head of state. Yes, if you didn’t know, saboteurs and killers always go out on missions in packs, in camouflage uniforms, with chevrons “Our business is death”, amicably settling in one place, attracting everyone's attention with their military bearing, army discipline and refusal to drink ...

Official mass media trumpet Russian

Official mass media trumpet Russian "militants"

So who exactly from the entourage of Lukashenka slipped this trap on him? We will get an answer soon. The funny thing is that they did not believe in "Russian terrorists" even in England - they are silent until now. Only Kiev fit in, with which Minsk suddenly began to discuss the citizenship of the detainees and to strengthen the borders (what if Russia attacks from near Pskov and Nevel?). However, making friends with Kiev against Moscow is the last thing, and the ally from the Ukrainian authorities is still Mazepa sourdough.

The BCHB-opposition did not believe Alexander Grigorievich either, having seen behind the scenes a play about “33 heroes” (according to legend, there are 200 of them, another 167 are somewhere kolobatyvayutsya) the intention of the authorities to introduce a state of emergency in the country and cancel the elections.

If Lukashenka's plan was to sell the West "Russian interference" to avoid the threat of a change of power in the country, then this is a hopeless business: the fighters for democracy there need only a full set, including the presidential office.

The rejection of allied relations with Russia means only one thing for the AHL - a quick and inevitable loss of power through street pressure and the technology of "fair elections", which has been worked out to perfection in different countries. Well, the country ... The country, like Ukraine, will go haywire.

It remains to add that Russia reacted very carefully to the strange actions of an ally: at an operational meeting with permanent members of the Security Council, which was held on July 31 by Russian President Vladimir Putin, “A detailed conversation took place about the incident with the detention of Russian citizens in Belarus. The hope was expressed that in the near future this situation will be clarified and the unreasonably detained Russian citizens will be released "... The word "unfounded" is intended to put an end to this story.

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