Nov 15, 2021
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How much time and effort does Lukashenka have to repel the Polish offensive against Grodno and Minsk

How much time and effort does Lukashenka have to repel the Polish offensive against Grodno and Minsk

Photo: Zuma / TASS

The migration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border has now become one of the most discussed topics in the global information space. And refugees from the Middle East are the tenth thing here, events can turn into a major military conflict, and not only between Poland and Belarus. The main participants in a possible military confrontation are just behind the backs of Warsaw and Minsk.

It is clear who will support whom. For Belarus, as for the Union State, Russia will stand up, theoretically and the rest of the countries included in the CSTO, but perhaps as a peacekeeping force. What does the same Kazakhstan care about European problems?

Polish reserve – NATO countries in Europe and their sympathizers. The Chinese edition of Sohu predicts that, in addition to Poland itself, military personnel from Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Germany, France and Great Britain, as well as Ukraine, will join the armed conflict. A separate line about the United States, which not only welcomes this mess, but brewed it.

Let us recall the migration crisis on the Turkish-Greek border in March last year, when Greece refused to let refugees, not only from Syria, but from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tunisia and Algeria. Athens then neither the European Union nor the United States began to punish, they just scolded, some of the migrants then settled on the Greek islands, some moved to Europe.

There was no talk of any military pressure on Greece. Now Belarus, through which migrants from Syria are trying to break through to Europe, are threatened with all kinds of punishments, up to the introduction of military contingents of countries that are not going to accept refugees.

In this case, migrants are just an excuse for a large-scale provocation, in which they are actively trying to involve Russia as well. Let’s compare a few more facts.

Ukraine has sharply intensified in Donbass by launching another offensive into “uncontrolled territories”, to which Moscow, it is alleged, should respond by introducing its troops into Donetsk and Luhansk. US Navy ships appeared in the Black Sea, the threat of which even the president speaks of Vladimir Putin… Now the “Polish gambit” is being played out, to which they are trying to pull Russia. Somewhere this “gun” should be fired in the third act.

The Russian army did not go to storm the Donbass, the Navy is looking after the NATO ships in the Black Sea, that is, Moscow was not led to these provocations. But what about Poland, which is running into a war with Belarus?

Now here is the Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki declares about the discussion with Latvia and, in particular, with Lithuania about the readiness to launch NATO Article 4. This article of the North Atlantic Alliance treaty provides for the possibility of convening the NATO Council if one of the member countries believes that there is a threat to its security. That is, Warsaw believes that several thousand migrants pose a serious danger and is ready not only to defend itself, but also to take countermeasures. Is Pan going to war?

– I must say that the Belarusian-Polish war is already in full swing, and it began not with the appearance of third-country nationals on the Belarusian-Polish border, – believes political scientist Alexander Zimovsky. – I deliberately do not call them either refugees or migrants. Because legally, from the point of view of international / Belarusian / Polish law, these people are not yet such.

So far, these are just foreign tourists who systematically violate Polish and Belarusian legislation regarding the regime of stay in border areas. Cynically speaking, they are just a double-edged instrument of the Belarusian-Polish, I hope, nothing more than an information war.

The information war did not work out for the Belarusians, therefore, the Polish narrative dominates in the EU, NATO and the United States in terms of pushing the desired version of what is happening to the world community. The Poles turned on their entire foreign lobby, mobilized the Polish press in an attacking style and created a patriotic frenzy.

On the contrary, the Belarusian narrative of what is happening on the border is suitable for internal use, and only on a limited scale. Simply because the information space of Belarus is dominated by modern opposition anti-Lukashenka tactical media, most of which are tied, again, to Poland. They also have a larger audience – a total of about two and a half million active users, they are also voluntary distributors. And the quality of the information product, coupled with creativity / efficiency, is much higher. And they are clearly better motivated.

This is how a local transboundary sluggish war of “minds” looks like.

Now to the military side of the matter. The Poles deployed 12 thousand regular soldiers and 3 thousand fighters of territorial troops in the conflict zone in a week. This is approximately one and a half times more than the number of all ground forces of the Belarusian army. The Poles carried out their tank reinforcement three weeks ago, when they transferred the 10th armored cavalry (tank) brigade to the Belarusian border, about 120 Leopard and Leopard-2 tanks.

The Belarusians keep on their side two mechanized brigades from the Western Operational Command, artillery and auxiliary units. Their command also organized a reinforced vigil of air defense forces in the western and northwestern directions. Russia demonstratively supported the Belarusians with a strategic aviation flight and airborne assault

Belarusian border guards and Polish border guards are in direct contact. They are propped up on each side by police / militia forces and special forces units. The latter conduct constant reconnaissance, both technical and visual. The Poles threw in information that the Belarusians from the border special forces OSAM (Separate Service of Active Measures) are actively infiltrating into Polish territory. However, the topic was not developed.

In general, the area of ​​direct contact is well saturated with troops, both among the Poles and among the Belarusians. It can be seen even on social networks. The Tinder application is full of photos of Polish soldiers offering themselves as friends / acquaintances to Belarusian ladies from Grodno and the surrounding areas.

However, even before the scale of last year’s war in Artsakh / Karabakh, the forces and means of the Poles and Belarusians deployed to date are like Mount Ararat.

The negative scenario, which was recently played out in the Polish General Staff, suggests that Belarus, with the support of Russia, will unleash a transient border military conflict. Which will take Poland out of the game before NATO and the Pentagon wake up. The goal of this scenario, according to the Polish military, will be for Russia to impose a new format of relations on the West on the basis of a complete revision of the entire package of international military-political treaties on security. In favor of Moscow, naturally.

At the same time, Moscow will not cut off pieces of territory from Poland. But the Western presence and influence in Poland, the Baltics, Ukraine and Georgia will be multiplied by zero. A kind of “Yalta 2.0”.

The scenario of the Belarusians is not designed for the first blow, since the whole idea is to present itself as a victim: Minsk declared itself a victim of sanctions a long time ago, and will, in theory, also be a victim of unprovoked treacherous aggression. Go bad?

In general, the idea of ​​a small victorious war was strongly actualized after the triumph of the president. Aliyev, it is constantly swarming in the brains of leaders of different caliber, and can gnaw a hole outward. This should also be introduced into our military equation.

Now NATO. NATO may not be able to keep up with the part of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Simply because one of the conditions for NATO’s inclusion in the war is the violation of the territorial integrity of a member country. Once a local specialist explained to me at NATO headquarters that a couple of shells that flew across the border, or a dozen large-caliber machine-gun bursts of casus belli are not, but are called a “border incident.”

Therefore, I advise everyone and everyone not to theorize, but to teach materiel. With regard to the current situation between Belarus and Poland, there is only one well-known large-scale analogue – the clashes on Damansky Island. If Warsaw and Minsk still dare to continue the fight on the ground (ne-waza in judo and / or prone position in sambo), the fighting will go exactly as in Damansky. And nothing else. This is their location.

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