Sep 16, 2020
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How many factions will there be in the future State Duma

In our preliminary analyzes, we initially assumed that a single voting day would make it easier to predict the prospects for our parliament. The obvious result of the three-day elections is that there will be no early parliamentary elections. Indeed, in many respects, the “unexpected” dissolution of the State Duma was calculated on the fact that traditional opposition parties would not be able to quickly group together for the sake of effective participation in the election campaign, which would a priori increase the advantage of United Russia. However, it is now clear that no qualitative growth of the protest electorate of the same Communist Party has happened. This means that there is no need to fence the garden with early elections, multiplying the factors of instability and unpredictability in a very difficult situation for the authorities.

It is possible that all the accents will be finally set after the alleged meeting of the leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation with the president, which, they claim, they requested by contacting the presidential administration. Both parties, as important components of a stable political system, would like to learn from the primary source about all possible changes and clarify their own perspectives.
Moreover, three recently registered parties that have managed to enlist their deputies in regional parliaments with varying degrees of success, which means that they have received the opportunity to directly participate in future Duma elections, are becoming a new factor in the analysis. We are talking, as we remember, about "New People", "For Truth", the ecological "Green Alternative". The fourth neophyte party Vyacheslav Makarov's Direct Democracy Party, as we expected, was left behind. Because nobody needs new Belarusian lobbyists as a result of the changed situation in the neighboring republic. The lifebuoy was not abandoned to the creator of the World of Tanks game.

Now a new question arises, how will the neophytes be used and in equal measure? In principle, all of them can be turned into a disposable hygienic item for a political game in the course of a future Duma campaign. Make it possible to collect percentages within the so-called statistical error - from one and a half to two. However, in aggregate, these five to six percent will be "bite off" from the opposition. And after summing up the final results of the voting, they were distributed among the parties that entered parliament, mainly in favor of the United Russia faction, further strengthening its position. At the same time, new parties can somewhat stimulate the growth of voter turnout.

But there is another, more constructive option. First of all, it can touch on the most successful party in the September 13 elections, "New People", which received mandates in as many as seven regional legislative assemblies. And this is an undoubted success for debutants. However, built on the basis of the cosmetic company Faberlic by Alexey Nechaev, it initially had significant advantages over other debutants. First of all, financial resources and organizational network cells for the distribution of their products in almost all regions. It is these structures that have experience in communicating with consumers, and began to offer, in addition to cosmetics, a new product - a political party. The result is an unprecedented leap in recognition in the country.

Founder of the New People party Alexei Nechaev at the party congressFounder of the New People party Alexei Nechaev at the party congress

Otherwise, a successful PR, built on the game around the very concept of "new people", and a general watery program: for all good against all bad. But the main thing is that the party, which is considered a liberal, representing the interests of medium-sized national business, has a space where it can move. For a long time, after all, attempts have been made to create a new manageable and constructive liberal party, but so far they have led nowhere. The classic example is the Party of Growth with its meager results. But even Yuri Luzhkov regretted that without "Right Cause" the parliament continues to fly without one wing.

However, the creation of such a party is a much more complicated issue than it might seem, since it will also have to find a common language with the remnants of the Civic Platform and the same Party of Growth. It is necessary to actively invade the clearing still occupied by Yabloko. And it is highly desirable not to overlap with United Russia. Therefore, it is too early to say that our official party system will be transformed from a four-tier into a five-tier one. But there is a prospect. As well as the possibility of a right-wing faction appearing in the future composition of the State Duma.

The ostensibly patriotic For Truth and Green Alternative have dimmer prospects. Moreover, against the background of the growth of environmental protests in our country - from Bashkiria to Volgograd and the Far East - there is a need for a strong environmental party that could reasonably lead such protest movements, preventing their radicalization. But such a party needs bright leaders and fresh ideas, and there is an obvious deficit of both.

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