Jan 26, 2021
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Great Britain leaves not only Europe, but also from the borders of itself

Scotland, and possibly Northern Ireland, will accelerate the move towards independence this year

If a large Anglo-Saxon massif in the United States has hesitated, then it is not surprising that, according to “chaos theory” (remember, “butterfly and hurricane.” D.M.), the small, original massif on the British Isles staggered even more. Something is wrong with the Anglo-Saxon kingdom, which is common from the point of view of the world interests of America and Great Britain, with its fading passionarity, with overstraining of resources due to the arbitrarily assumed role of world leader.

Head of the Scottish Government Nicola Sturgeon

Head of the Scottish Government Nicola Sturgeon

The northern part of UK Scotland (5.5 million people) has long been considered the main contender for expanding the family of independent European states. The head of the local government and leader of the Scottish National Party, Nicola Sturgeon, unambiguously statedthat expects to hold a vote on independence this year. At the same time, if the independence referendum held in 2014 did not bring success to the Scots, now all polls say that if the attempt is repeated, supporters of leaving the UK will win a landslide victory.

Supporters of Scotland's exit from the UK

The main reasons for the change in mood were Brexit and Edinburgh’s desire to remain in the European Union, into whose economy Scotland is more integrated than the rest of the United Kingdom. The defeat of the nationalists in 2014 was largely due to the fact that, in an effort to keep London in its composition, the EU refused to recognize the independent prospects of the Scots in this association. Now this motivation has disappeared, and in case of success in the referendum, Edinburgh has every chance to take the place of Great Britain in European structures.

These guys can't be stopped

These guys can’t be stopped

Scotland's motto:

Scotland’s motto: “No one will touch me with impunity”

It will be quite difficult for the British to recognize the referendum as illegal, since at one time, knowing the poll data that were soothing for them, they had already agreed to a similar event. But they apparently lacked historical foresight; now the general situation and the mood of the Scots for the supporters of the preservation of a single state is much worse. London’s main objection to the new expression of the will of the Scots is extremely unconvincing: they say, it should be carried out “once a generation”, that is, according to the agreement reached then, not more often than once every 10 years.

In about this spirit, on January 17, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote his official response to Nicola Sturgeon to her demand for a transfer of powers from the British Parliament to the Scottish Parliament for the appointment of a subsequent independence referendum in 2021. He informed her that he could not give his consent to this. Main argument: “You and your predecessors have personally promised that the 2014 referendum will be the only one for this generation.”

Boris Johnson:

Boris Johnson: “Wait, Edinburgh!”

However, not much remains until the end of the ten-year term since the previous referendum. Given the existing socio-economic and political trends, by 2024 London’s position as a unifying center of the country will only worsen. And Edinburgh does not intend to wait for this date. In May 2021, the next parliamentary elections are to be held in Scotland, at which, according to all forecasts, supporters of independence will confidently win, after which London will be asked not to “prolong the agony”, but to immediately begin the procedure of the “historically long overdue” division. According to the surveyheld in mid-December 2020, 58% of Scotland residents (up from 44.7% in 2014) would vote for independence from the UK.

“For” the independence of Scotland. A film about the Scottish leader W. Wallace

Having studied B. Johnson’s letter, N. Sturgeon announced on January 24 that if she won the May elections, in any case, she would hold a “deliberative” referendum on independence. She drew up an 11-point roadmap on how to conduct such a vote, even if London were against. According to a survey of the London Sunday Times, the majority of respondents not only in Scotland but also in Northern Ireland want holding referenda on independence from Great Britain.

Nor does the coming of the Irishman Joseph Biden as president of the United States bode well for the British. It is not for nothing that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was almost the only supporter of Trump in Europe.

D. Trump and B. Johnson

D. Trump and B. Johnson

As a senator, Biden advocated the reintegration of Northern Ireland (about 2 million people) into the “mother” of Ireland. And it seems that Biden has not changed this position until now, as if jokingly refused to give an interview to the BBC after his inauguration, on the grounds that he is “Irish” (they say, “freedom-loving Celts do not speak to the occupation press”). Presumably, in Belfast, these signs will not be taken lightly and, impressed by Scottish decisiveness, they will also seriously think about holding an independence referendum with subsequent joining Dublin in the near future.

Biden wearing an

Biden wearing an “Irish” tie and an “Irish” clover

Wales (3.15 million people), like Scotland, has its own nationalist party, the Play Camry. (Plaid Cymru)relying mainly on ethnic Welsh. In the local assembly for Wales, it still has only 10 out of 60, but under the influence of events shaking the United Kingdom, the weight of this party can quickly increase, and the mood of Cardiff may change. Plyde Camry has only recently adopted a program for achieving state independence and a road map to it, but it has significant achievements in terms of preserving the Welsh language (from the group of Celtic languages) and the culture of the Welsh.

Flag of Wales Royal Coat of Arms of Wales

Flag of Wales Royal, coat of arms of Wales

And then, like a sin, one of the famous crows, nicknamed Queen Merlin, disappeared from the Tower of London, reports solid New York Times… According to legend, these crows have guarded the peace of the kingdom since the time of King Charles II (XVII century). This attraction for tourists is also called “guardians of national destiny”. Who knows if Queen Merlin herself flew away or her disappearance was the work of restless separatists, but according to prophecies, when the crows leave the Tower of London, the building will collapse, and with it the whole kingdom. Or if there are less than eight crows left, then the critical threshold is close.

“Queen Merlin” left the Tower – a sign of trouble

Ironically, New York Times adds that given all the challenges the UK is now facing, from a “pandemic” to painful Brexit, one might wonder “But did not the prophecy begin to come true”

Of course, you can catch any crow on the London streets and say that this is the Queen of Merlin. Who can tell? And the Tower as a building will be saved. However, will this help the United Kingdom to resist if it is overtaken by a recurring wave of divisions that London, together with Washington, has diligently directed towards the European continent since the 1990s? For example, London recognized the independence of Kosovo only on the basis of the declaration of independence by Pristina, without any referendum. In Scotland, a similar process will take place in accordance with a democratic procedure. Do you remember the Slatina airfield in Pristina, which the British occupied after the departure of the Russian contingent?

Cover photo: REUTERS / POOL New

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