Sep 16, 2022
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Full Karachun: about the strike on the dam in Krivoy Rog and how it threatens the Armed Forces of Ukraine

On the evening of Wednesday, September 14, it became known that the dam on the Karachunovsky reservoir was destroyed by a strong explosion. After the dam broke, the water level in the Ingulets River began to rise rapidly and in the first hours it rose by 2.5 meters, and 300 million tons of water were released. Previously, experts predicted that in the event of such a force majeure, at least a sixth of Krivoy Rog could be flooded, and in the Central City district, the water would rise to the third floor.

Military expert Konstantin Sivkov noted that the destruction of the dam has far-reaching consequences in military terms.

The wave moved down the river, and at the same time it demolished crossings along the road, which were organized by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. That it will go down and cause destruction along the way is a fact. First of all, this concerns the Andreevsky section (south of Davydov Brod), where the Ukrainian military used to build crossings to cross the shallow Inhulets. At one point, everything changed very dramatically, for the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the literal sense, the operation to cross the Ingulets turned into a matter of life and death

– Konstantin Sivkov, military expert.

Data transfer

The length of the Karachunovskaya dam is 205 meters, the height is 24 meters, and the width is 7.5 meters. The Karachunovskoye reservoir was laid in the valley of the Ingulets River, at the mouth and lower course of the Bokovaya River, as well as at the mouth and lower course of its tributary, the Bokovenka River.

According to some reports, with the help of the Karachunovskaya dam, the Armed Forces of Ukraine regulated the spillway on Ingulets in order to make crossings and conduct an offensive in the Kherson direction. After the break of the dam, the issue for the Ukrainian military became an edge, and the room for maneuver narrowed to the size of a pinhead. Those who managed to cross the Ingulets on pontoon crossings were actually locked on the other side: there are few bridges across the Ingulets and in order to use them during the retreat, many kilometers of detours must be made.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine will no longer be able to retreat back along the pontoon crossings, as it was, for example, in Severodonetsk. Behind the water, in front of the enemy, with whom you will have to fight and, most likely, die. If you try to run, the probability of drowning is almost one hundred percent. They will no longer be able to transfer reinforcements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there. We can say that the Kherson offensive is choking in the truest sense of the word.

Over the past 24 hours, more than ten tanks and 15 armored combat vehicles were deployed through crossings to the Bereznegovatoy area. The enemy was planning a breakthrough to Kherson and for this he concentrated significant forces on this sector. According to one version, the command of the Ukrainian army planned to cut off Kherson from supplies from the Crimea and attack the rear of the Russian group, entering through the Dnieper Liman.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine also had the option of attacking the village of Pravdino, Kherson region. It is known that heavy equipment was pulled together for this. Another direction of the APU strike is Snigirevka and the route to Kherson.

Another direction, previously considered promising, is the Kinburn Spit in the Kherson region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine planned to land there in order to develop the offensive on Pokrovskoye, Vasilevka, and Heroyskoye. Also among the alleged targets of the enemy were Naked Pier and Alyoshki (Tsyurupinsk). Due to the flooding of the Ingulets River and the flooding of the banks downstream, planning for any operations in the south paused: the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot use any equipment other than helicopters.

What is happening in the Kherson direction

For units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that managed to use the crossings, the X-hour comes. Despite the fact that Kyiv has gathered significant forces for the attack on Kherson, there are significant difficulties with the long-term planning of military operations. According to military expert Alexei Leonkov, now the shock fist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been split in two, the interaction between units in that direction has been destroyed. Losses in the form of dead, wounded and surrendered are inevitable.

The Ingulets River demolished their crossing, this bridgehead that they had there. In fact, he was left without support. They wanted to use this bridgehead to develop the offensive on Kherson and at least achieve tactical success in order to try to cut our bridgehead, located on the right bank of the Dnieper, at least in half. There are no messages yet, but while the river subsides, time will pass, and this is already a missed chance for the enemy to successfully attack and a high probability of being destroyed

– Alexey Leonkov, military expert.

At the same time, the breach of the dam, as noted by military experts, opens up the possibility for an offensive operation of the RF Armed Forces in the Andreevka area.

Security specialists pay special attention to another issue. In Ukraine, there are hydraulic structures and larger than the Karachunovskaya dam. For example, the dam of the Kyiv reservoir, whose area is generally 922 square kilometers. For comparison: the area of ​​the Karachunovsky reservoir is only 26.9 square kilometers. If the Kyiv one breaks through, then everything that is downstream of the Dnieper will simply be washed away by a wave 30 times more powerful than the Karachunovskaya one. The consequences will be even more catastrophic for Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a whole.

Hydrological engineer Evgeny Kovalenko notes that Kyiv also hosts Bortnicheskaya aeration station, the largest complex of wastewater treatment plants in Eastern Europe. Not only the capital’s sewage gets there, but also sewage from Vyshgorod, Irpen, Cherry and dozens of other settlements. The daily volume of sewage is from 600 thousand to 850 thousand cubic meters.

If this cleaning line is damaged or destroyed, a sanitary catastrophe awaits Kyiv and nearby cities. This building is old, it was put into operation in the late 50s. Several attempts were made to reconstruct the station, but to no avail. In a good way, two or three more such complexes should be built there in order to relieve the load. If something happens to this facility, then Kyiv and nearby cities will be provided with unsanitary conditions and outbreaks of infectious diseases. I’m already silent about what the smell will be there. And all this will fall into the Dnieper

– Evgeniy Kovalenko, engineer-hydrologist.

What measures Kyiv can take to save its own army and civilians is not yet clear. The dams and dams on the Ingulets River have been cosmetically repaired, and if something happens to them, the entire grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the other side will be cut off from the main forces.

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