May 10, 2022
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From Kherson to Izyum is now Russian land

In the photo: celebrations on the occasion of Victory Day in Mariupol

In the photo: celebrations on the occasion of Victory Day in Mariupol (Photo: Petr Kovalev / TASS)

Speech Vladimir Putin at the Moscow military parade, Western analysts dismantled the bones. They will break their heads over his words for a long time to come.

The attention to the May 9 speech was enormous. Especially considering that on the eve of the British Minister of Defense Ben Wallace said: allegedly, on Victory Day, general mobilization will be announced in the Russian Federation. Many Western publications have already written about this as an almost accomplished fact.

Nothing of the kind happened – as it turned out, the assurances of the Western “hawks” were only elements of anti-Russian propaganda.

Analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Katherine Lawlor I Mason Clark conclude: Moscow intends to maintain the current level of presence in Ukraine. Moreover, the level of Russian support is growing in the territories that have returned under Moscow’s control: Victory Day was celebrated in Mariupol, Berdyansk, Volnovakha, Melitopol, Kherson and many other cities. Recall that since 2014, marches of the Immortal Regiment, Eternal Lights, and even St. George ribbons have been banned in Ukraine.

Moreover, the Nazis, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and saboteurs tried to disrupt the celebration of Victory Day in the liberated territories.

So, the head of the military-civilian administration of the Kherson region Vladimir Saldo stated that they tried to bombard the city with Uragan rockets – at least 8 shells were shot down on approach to Kherson.

The level of public support for a military special operation in Ukraine is optimal for the Kremlin, experts at the Institute for the Study of War say. And they refer to the data of the Levada Center *: they indicate that at least 74% of Russians support the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine.

68% of Russians are confident that the special operation is progressing successfully, and 73% are convinced that it will definitely end in Russia’s victory. The main sociological markers of the success of the special operation are the capture of Mariupol, the liberation of the settlements of Donbass (only in the DPR, Ukrainian troops were driven out of 184 settlements), the destruction of military equipment and mercenaries. That’s what people say!

Guardian: Russia will equip and protect the liberated territories

The immediate task of Moscow in the second phase of the special operation in Ukraine may be the arrangement of the liberated territories, a political observer believes Andrew Roth. He notes that now Ukrainian troops have been knocked out from almost 90% of the territory of the Luhansk region, and the entire Kherson region and most of the Zaporozhye and Kharkov regions are also under the control of Russian troops.

Broadcasting of Russian TV and publication of Russian newspapers have already been established in all the liberated territories. The Ukrainian hryvnia was withdrawn from circulation, instead of it – the ruble. The heads of the provisional administrations have already announced that the liberated territories may become part of Russia.

Analyst Andrew Roth, in an article for The Guardian, believes that Russia, having gained control over a significant part of the territory of Ukraine, may go for a temporary de-escalation. Maintaining positions is an ambitious task, it will require the creation of impressive defensive structures (the so-called securitization of the territory).

Express: Russia will focus all efforts on the southeast direction

British military analyst Michael Clarkwho headed the Royal United Services Institute for almost ten years, is sure that in the coming weeks Russia will focus its efforts precisely on the southeast direction. This will encircle and finally defeat the Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will ensure security for both Donbass and the liberated territories in the south.

Clark, in an interview with the influential British edition of Express, says that the Russian Armed Forces will focus their efforts in two directions. From the north, the attack will go to Izyum and Popasnaya, and from the south – to Kurulka and Brazhkovka. This will make it possible to create a cauldron in which about 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers who attacked the Donbass will cook.

Clark calls the capture of 110,000-strong Slavyansk and 150,000-strong Kramatorsk, in which Ukrainians have dug in since 2014, the most important goals of Russia. These cities are strategic points for control over the entire Donbass: it is in Kramatorsk that the Donetsk regional administration and the headquarters of the so-called “Joint Forces Operation” are located.

* ANO “Yuri Levada Analytical Center” is included in the register of organizations performing the functions of a foreign agent by the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation.

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