Anti-Corruption Foundation * announced a new rally in support of Alexey Navalny, without waiting for the end of the collection launched on the site of half a million people wishing to participate in it. As the director of FBK told Ivan Zhdanov and head of Navalny’s regional headquarters network Leonid Volkov, this decision was made because events began to develop too quickly.
“You can’t wait and put off any longer. An extreme situation requires extreme solutions. We are announcing the rally now “, – said Zhdanov in his address on the Youtube channel.
Apparently, the action was catalyzed by the claim of the Moscow prosecutor’s office on the recognition of both FBK and the headquarters of Alexei Navalny and the Foundation for the Protection of Citizens’ Rights * (FZPG; legal entity FBK) as extremist organizations. If this happens, participation in the activities of organizations or their funding will face criminal liability. According to the prosecutor’s office, the activities of these organizations are aimed at “Creating conditions for changing the foundations of the constitutional system, including using the scenario of the” color revolution “…
Another factor that influenced the urgent gathering for the protest action could be the upcoming message of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly. It is no coincidence that the rallies are scheduled for the same day as the appeal, namely, April 21. According to political analysts, in this way the protests will be able to naturally “tie” to the president’s message and divert media attention from the first event to the second.
In this regard, a significant number of provocations at the upcoming uncoordinated actions cannot be ruled out, because the more clashes and detentions there are, the brighter the picture will turn out for the Western media.
At the same time, it is noteworthy that most of the organizers will be together with the Protestants only mentally, because physically they are abroad. In particular, they left the country Vladimir Milov, Leonid Volkov, Maria Pevchikh, Ivan Zhdanov, who actively urge to take to the streets and participate in an uncoordinated action, or, as Alexei Navalny’s supporters call it, in the “final battle between good and evil.”
As believed statesman and public figure, political scientist Sergei Markov, the goal of the organizers of the action is precisely to cause as many riots as possible on the day of the president’s address in order to play into the hands of the West, while they themselves do not want to risk themselves at all.
– There can be only one scenario for these actions – provoking riots. The goal of the organizers is for the media to concentrate not only on the president’s speech, but also on protests, showing clashes in the streets.
It must be admitted that from the point of view of political technologies, this is a very professional and competent move. Vladimir Putin speaks, and at this time there are riots, which are shown by all the TV channels of the world, and on which they are concentrating. It is clear that the Western and opposition media will try to demonstrate that there is a huge rejection of Putin in the country, that we have a dictatorial regime, and so on.
From the point of view of political technologies, everything is perfect. However, the modern world is not only political technologies, but also politics. And from a political point of view, it will be a complete failure.
“SP”: – Why?
– Because the previous months showed that the organizers of these Volkov actions, Ashurkov and Singers are obvious crooks and crooks. They cooperate with foreign special services and are their agents. After the previous rallies, they began to collect 500 thousand signatures, but they never did. It turned out that 70% of these signers are bots.
Now they will try to take people out under the batons of the riot police, provoke clashes in every possible way. They deliberately made their shares unauthorized. Several hundred people are already under various types of arrests for past actions, and they want to imprison several hundred more. And at the same time they earn money and points for themselves. At the peak of the current confrontation between Russia and the West, they want to show that they are very necessary bad boys and get money for this.
To go to a rally organized by these crooks, you just need to disrespect yourself. People who go there know perfectly well that Volkov, Ashurkov and Singers are crooks, open foreign agents that receive money from Western special services. This means that those who take to the streets that day are ready to participate in the projects of traitors and serve foreign interests hostile to Russia. Therefore, I am convinced that there will be few people, and this is very good.
“SP”: – What strategy should the security forces choose to minimize riots?
– In my opinion, they should be tougher. It is one thing for people who come out with social slogans for higher pensions and better health care. With them you need to be as gentle as possible, because they should have the right to express their position. But with this narrow sect, which is ready to serve the interests of hostile forces, you need to behave tactfully, but tough.
“SP”: – But this will create, to put it mildly, not a very attractive picture in the Western media …
– You shouldn’t worry about the western picture. Western media falsify what is happening as much as possible and are increasingly inclined towards Goebbels’ style of anti-Russian propaganda. Whatever we do, they will show everything in their own way.
Director of the Center for the Development of Regional Policy Ilya Grashchenkov believes that April 21 may become a turning point in the political course of Russia.
– April 21 is a bifurcation point, the convergence of the destinies of all political players in Russia, starting with Vladimir Putin. It is clear that the message to the Federal Assembly may contain things that are important and significant for the country. Now information is being thrown in that Putin may announce the beginning of the annexation of Donbass or integration with Belarus. Or maybe not talk about anything like that and limit ourselves to the internal agenda, the announcement of new support measures. The absence of important decisions will in itself be a political decision.
The message will take place against the backdrop of two other events, internal and external. The first is opposition rallies, and the second is the increased pressure from the West on Putin. The Czechs have made a significant start with their military accusations against Russia, the NATO countries are gathering to discuss this issue. Before that there were words Biden about Putin, meeting Erdogan from Zelensky etc. External pressure is unprecedented, and April 21 will become the point of making a political decision by the authorities. Basically, it will depend on what Vladimir Putin has to say.
“SP”: – And what to expect specifically from the rallies?
– On the one hand, a fairly large number of people have registered on the site. On the other hand, they did not make it up to 500 thousand, and putting a tick on the Internet is much easier than actually taking to the streets. It is difficult to say what percentage is mobilized from this number of potential participants.
If no one really comes to the rallies, everything will go smoothly, like at night winter rallies. But if at least as many people come out as immediately after Navalny’s arrival, the picture can turn out to be very bright, especially if the authorities take unprecedented measures.
Last time people were detained quite correctly. Now there are suggestions that the security forces can show who is the boss in the house, and move from refined detentions to harsher ones, according to the Belarusian model, so that it is discouraging. Then you get a picture of the “brutalized” government. True, it will work out in any case, even if everything goes relatively without excesses.
“SP”: – Why?
– On the international arena, a negative image of the Russian government is taking shape. And Navalny in prison on a hunger strike, who is supposedly on the verge of death, and the suppression of protests, and the transition to an almost dictatorial style of government create a bad image for Russia. But the Rubicon has already been crossed, the West was the first to announce its negative attitude towards the Russian regime, regardless of what is happening in the country.
Perhaps Putin, like Pontius Pilate, decided to wash his hands and leave the situation at the mercy of the security forces. And they are straightforward people and give a simple formula: whoever is against Putin is the enemy of Russia, and the enemies must be destroyed. Maybe not yet physically, but this leaves the question of the use of force at rallies open. It is not excluded that the authorities will cease to hide behind the fig leaf of procedurality and switch to self-defense against, as it seems to it, Western agents who aim to destroy it.
* By the decision of the Ministry of Justice of Russia included in the register of NPOs performing the functions of a foreign agent