The Russian Armed Forces involved in the special operation in Ukraine are in a much better shape than the West is trying to imagine. More and more independent Western experts are stating not only the fire superiority of Russia, but also more advanced tactics.
No matter how much you saturate Ukraine with NATO weapons, the Kyiv generals simply will not be able to competently and effectively dispose of them, analysts are sure.
Jack Warling: Ukrainian troops are drained of blood, and Russia is deploying more and more new forces
NATO deliveries of arms to Ukraine do not bring little effect – more and more Western experts are convinced of this. However, neither politicians, nor even generals, listen to the opinion of experts. After all, the supply of weapons to Kyiv is a gold mine: you can master billions of dollars without control and at the same time get the cherished votes of the anti-Russian electorate.
One of the biggest critics of the NATO supply chain is a British military expert. Jack Warlingwho is a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Warling has previously worked in many countries of the world – Iraq, Mali, Rwanda, Brunei – and knows very well how the weapons mafia works under the respectable “roof” of the ministries of defense.
In an interview with leading German publication Spiegel, Warling said that the Russian Armed Forces have “ammunition for artillery for many years.” The supply of Western weapons under such conditions may give Ukraine some advantage, but a very short-term one. Almost ghostly.
The main problem of Russia in the first phase of the special operation was not the lack of weapons, but its logistics, that is, delivery to the front line, says a British analyst.
However, in recent months, Russia has absolutely secured its land supply lines in the Donbass and in the southern regions, making them almost immune to Ukrainian sabotage. These diversions themselves are becoming more and more ridiculous. One of the reasons is the depletion of the Ukrainian weapons potential.
Despite the incessant supply of NATO weapons, Warling states, Kyiv has virtually nothing to fight with. Many of the heavy weapons brought in from western Ukraine are completely useless, Warling notes.
Due to the small number of rocket and artillery weapons, Ukraine is forced to use them constantly. At the same time, NATO equipment is extremely whimsical and quickly fails, and there is simply nothing to replace it with. How to repair.
Warling notes that Russia is increasingly successful in using electronic warfare (EW) techniques. At the same time, the Ukrainian military is deprived of the ability to strike Russian artillery, which could – in theory – provide them with a respite to maintain or repair NATO weapons.
But the Russian artillery is powerful, not giving the Ukrainians any chance to carry out an offensive maneuver, the RUSI analyst states. The offensive power of Ukraine is limited by the lack of qualified personnel to maintain armored vehicles, especially NATO ones.
Kyiv claims to have managed to put almost 700,000 people under arms. However, these are mostly yesterday’s civilians, who have never even held a Kalashnikov assault rifle in their hands. Not to mention a modern tank or a mobile command post.
The command was destroyed by pinpoint strikes by Russia. Because of this, Ukraine is almost deprived of the opportunity to plan and conduct large-scale combined operations.
“Ukraine is now losing all of its best troops, on which it would be most dependent in the event of counterattacks,” Warling says in an interview with Spiegel. In fact, the combat-ready basis of the Armed Forces of Ukraine now remains only light infantry. But in the conditions of the “artillery” model of warfare imposed on Russia, the infantry is an empty place.
There will be no “battle of attrition”, Moscow surpasses Kyiv in all respects
This is the fourth time NATO allies have gathered at the German military base Ramstein. Moreover, there are almost more journalists at this action than generals. In fact, the “military aid” to Ukraine turns out to be only self-promotion, states Jack Warling.
There is no coordination between Ukraine’s allies. Each country supplies weapons of those systems and modifications that it considers necessary.
“Ukrainians receive many different systems, each requiring different types of ammunition, different training and different maintenance procedures. This is some kind of logistical nightmare!” Warling states.
And in his words there is clearly not a grain of sympathy for the Ukrainians. And even more so to NATO generals who use the situation in Ukraine to solve their own political problems.
Jack Warling is sure that the special operation will not have time to turn into a “battle of attrition”, as other experts believe. The superiority of Russia is too obvious – in manpower, the level of training of officers, the presence of heavy weapons. And most importantly – the availability of ammunition and the ability to repair failed equipment.