Sep 22, 2022
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Exchange – freezing the conflict or resetting before the storm?

Very upset by the news about the partial mobilization announced in Russia, Kyiv decided to sweeten the pill and used the situation with the exchange of prisoners of war for this. I must say that the Russian side once again demonstrated a total disregard for the information support of the process, which helped the Kyiv regime to arrange PR almost from scratch.

However, this is, unfortunately, not the first such case, and we are gradually getting used to such circumstances. Well, God be with them, it will not be about them. Much more interesting are the conclusions that the neighboring party comes to as a result of the exchange in an attempt to understand what all this really means.

Thinking within the framework of the usual Ukrainian dichotomy – “threat / victory”, local experts see only two options: either this is part of some global “agreement” (but then why all this whirlwind with mobilization?), Or, more likely, this is some kind of zeroing sides before the second stage of the war. It is wars, and not NWO.

Thus, the Ukrainian telegram channel Kartel believes that we are talking about the exchange of all for all: “Even Medvedchuk and many others who were detained on political charges were exchanged. Here the question is, where does it all lead to. Will Medvedchuk really be prepared for a possible surrender of Ukraine and its new leadership? (Well, as planned by the Kremlin). Analyzing everything that is happening, one could say that there is a “warming” of relations, but against the backdrop of mobilization and other steps, this indicates a reset before the second stage. What it will be, we will see before the new year.

And their colleagues from the Legitimny channel even offered three options for the further development of events:

“one. Positive. Still, it’s a “negotiable”, which means there will be no offensives, and so on. There will be peace agreements at the G20. The war will fade. For the population of Ukraine, this is salvation from the collapse that is brewing.

2. Negative. Zeroing, before the second phase of the Ukrainian crisis, which will be more aggressive. For the population of Ukraine, this is a complete collapse in winter. Further, hunger and all the consequences are possible.

3. A smoldering conflict with a long process of bargaining and hostilities.

Any of the options that do not provide for the intensification of hostilities is considered by the Ukrainian side as a losing one. According to the ZeRada channel, if the conflict freezes, the supply of weapons will stop, and Ukraine will become an unbearable burden for the West.

“The Russian economy has been rebuilding according to the mobilization plan for six months now, while Europe itself will need time to rebuild, which will only aggravate the social crisis developing there. Moreover, after the referendums and the inclusion of the Kherson/Zaporozhye/Luhansk and Donetsk regions into Russia, everyone will understand that the stakes have been raised and it is necessary to wage a war of annihilation, since the moderate plan no longer exists, it was only in the spring in Istanbul,” the authors believe. channel.

However, some people believe that Kyiv is not afraid of Moscow’s threats and will continue the military campaign. The Office of the President is using the referendum situation to obtain new weapons from the West (primarily air defense and tanks), which should help the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the counteroffensive in the South.

At the same time, the most attentive ones follow not only the official statements of the representatives of the Russian leadership (which, by the way, quite clearly testify to the Kremlin’s determination to finally close the Ukrainian issue), but also try to read between the lines.

So, according to the experts of the channel “Resident”, there is no talk of any “agreement”, moreover, there will be no more negotiations.

“Russia is starting to implement its ultimatum. After the referendums and the introduction of part of the Ukrainian territories into Russia, “there can be no talk of negotiations with Ukraine.” This was stated by the head of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs Leonid Slutsky. It is interesting that Slutsky is a member of the negotiating group with Ukraine,” the Resident notes.

Understand this and on the Bank. And despite the harsh statements and outright bravado from Kyiv, there is a fear in the OP that at the last moment the West will abandon Ukraine, not daring to go into an open conflict with the Russian Federation, which is what everything is going to. And in addition to the obvious fears of being left alone with Russia, there is also a hidden subtext of recent events that threatens the Kyiv regime with much greater losses than the fatigue of the West.

Firstly, even if it seems that Bankovaya benefited from the exchange of information, then with a deeper analysis it becomes obvious that from now on for any Ukrainian soldiers, even the National Battalions, radicals from Azov and other nationalist formations banned in Russia, it sounds like an axiom message: surrender, then you will be exchanged.

“While fighting and losing, you can surrender, no one in captivity will kill you and torture you to death. Also, many soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can surrender, realizing that the exchanges continue and it is not worth standing to the death, ”the Ukrainian public emphasizes.

Secondly, as the MediaKiller channel notes, in response to the partial mobilization in Russia, the Ukrainian authorities will also have to strengthen the mobilization processes in the country. And it is possible that almost everyone will start rowing. The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the counteroffensive must be urgently replenished, and attention should also be paid to the defense of a wide front, which requires much more resources and forces.

And thirdly, it is possible that at the moment when Ukraine does not count the next four regions, the situation (under the plausible pretext of protecting Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity) will be taken advantage of by its western neighbors: Poland, Hungary and Romania, and will send their troops into Transcarpathia , Galicia and Bukovina. Incidentally, former Romanian Foreign Minister Andrei Marga spoke directly about this not so long ago.

“I declare with all responsibility: Ukraine is located in unnatural borders. It must cede the lands of Russia – Crimea and Donbass, Hungary – Transcarpathia, Poland – Galicia, Romania – Bukovina … These are the territories of other countries, ”the ex-minister emphasized.

So once again, an unexpected “victory” is quite capable of turning into an expected defeat for Kyiv, and a devastating one at that.

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