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Oct 18, 2021
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“Excess mortality, like in Guatemala” – a demographer on the situation with COVID-19 in Russia

According to the headquarters, as of October 18, the number of deaths from the coronavirus for the entire pandemic was 224 310. To obtain more accurate data, Alexey Raksha analyzes the data of the Rosstat of the Unified State Register of Civil Status Records (USR ZAGS). According to the demographer’s calculations, today the excess mortality in Russia is 750 thousand people.

Excess mortality is an increase in the death rate of a population relative to the expected one. Usually associated with external causes such as epidemics, war, famine and other massive disasters.

“By the end of the month, the excess mortality will be 820 thousand people, by the end of the year – at least 950, but it can reach a million. In the worst case, this will happen in December, with a more optimistic scenario – in February, ”the demographer told MedPortal.

According to Alexei Rakshi, among European countries, the situation with COVID-19 in Russia is one of the most disastrous among European countries, the indicators are worse only in Albania and Macedonia. Compared with other countries of the world, our country has caught up with Guatemala and Kazakhstan in terms of accumulated excess mortality. Such countries as Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Paraguay, Brazil, Iran and others are “overtaking” Russia.

It is noteworthy that against this background, an increase in the birth rate is expected in the country compared to 2020: according to official data, the number of births in 2021 is estimated at 1 million 340 thousand, but according to the demographer, the number of children reaches 1 million 400 thousand. This is probably the effect of an increase in the size of maternity capital, the expert believes.

“We have birth rates as in developed countries, and mortality rates as in developing countries,” said Alexei Raksha.

The fact that the official data on mortality in Russia is significantly underestimated has been repeatedly stated by open data analyst Alexander Dragan. So, according to his estimates, on August 11, 829 people died from COVID-19 in Russia, while the headquarters announced 799 dead.

“Two deaths were cut here, here five, here ten – everything so as not to show more than 799 deaths,” the expert wrote on his Facebook page. According to Dragan’s calculations, at least 2 thousand patients per day died in Russia in the summer.

It is noteworthy that in terms of the scale of vaccination, Russia also beats anti-records: to date, 47.5 million people are fully vaccinated, which is about a third of the population. The situation is worse only in African countries, where vaccination is still practically unavailable. At the same time, in the USA this figure reached 56%, in Canada – 72%.


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